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Secular stagnation and low interest rates under the fear of a government debt crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichiro Kobayashi
  • Kozo Ueda

Abstract

In this study, we explain the driving forces behind the secular stagnation associated with a persistent decrease in interest rates. To do so, we employ a model that incorporates a crisis risk triggered by an accumulation of government debt. The model shows that the fear of large-scale taxation on capital and misallocations of capital in future debt crises explains almost half the economic slowdown in Japan over the past two decades. Over the same period, the government bond yield decreases, because the uncertainty in returns on capital makes investing in government bonds becomes less risky than investing in capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2020. "Secular stagnation and low interest rates under the fear of a government debt crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2020-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-40
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-04/40_2020_kobayashi_ueda.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoichi Gokan & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2025. "Government Spending, Debt Management, and Wealth and Income Inequality in a Growing Monetary Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 185-221, February.
    2. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2023. "Recursive expectations approach in policymaking," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 385-397, August.
    3. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
    4. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2023. "Comment on “Recursive expectations approach in policymaking” by Professor Keiichiro Kobayashi," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 399-402, August.
    5. Kim, Myunghyun, 2024. "Declining real interest rates: The role of energy prices in energy importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Shogo Nakano & Takahiro Yamanaka, 2024. "Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    7. Kazuma Inagaki, & Yoshiyasu Ono & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2022. "Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach," ISER Discussion Paper 1174, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    8. Nicola Acocella, 2021. "Stagnation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 121-140.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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