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The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Bielecki

    (University of Warsaw
    Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics
    Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Marcin Kolasa

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics
    International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribute significantly: fluctuations impact welfare of some cohorts by an equivalent of 30% of annual consumption. These first-order effects do not net out over a typical life cycle: some cohorts have been much less lucky than others. Life cycle aspects also amplify second-order costs of fluctuations. Monetary policy shocks are highly redistributive and, hence play an over-proportional role in driving redistribution: they are responsible for over 20% of its total amount. Systematic monetary policy has a quantitatively significant impact on redistribution as well: policy that responds strongly to inflation and output can substantially increase intergenerational redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2026. "The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 2026-2, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-2
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/6938/0
    File Function: First version, 2026
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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