Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2008

• Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008, "Could We Have Predicted The Recent Downturn In The South African Housing Market?," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 200831, Oct.
• Michal Pazour, 2008, "Stanovení náchylnosti ekonomiky k nadměrným tlakům na měnový kurs
  [Vulnerabilities in an economy to extensive pressures on the exchange rate]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2008, issue 5, pages 598-620, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.654.
• Miloslav Vošvrda & Jozef Baruník, 2008, "Modelování krachů na kapitálových trzích: aplikace teorie stochastických katastrof
  [Stock market crashes modeling: stochastic cusp catastrophe application]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2008, issue 6, pages 759-771, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.662.
• Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008, "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy, number 8_2008, Jun.
• António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2008, "Forecasting Using Targeted Diffusion Indexes," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w200807.
• José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008, "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w200818.
• Paulo Esteves & Maximiano Pinheiro, 2008, "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w200821.
• Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008, "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 624, Mar.
• Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008, "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 625, Mar.
• Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008, "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 634, Oct.
• Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008, "Forecasting with Dynamic Models using Shrinkage-based Estimation," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 635, Oct.
• Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008, "Combining Multivariate Density Forecasts Using Predictive Criteria," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia, number rdp2008-02, May.
• Andrew Hodge & Tim Robinson & Robyn Stuart, 2008, "A Small BVAR-DSGE Model for Forecasting the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia, number rdp2008-04, Sep.
• Marc Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2008, "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," 2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 1067.
• Marta Bańbura, 2008, "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 334.
• Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008, "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 540.
• Fischer, Carolyn & Herrnstadt, Evan & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2008, "Understanding Errors in EIA Projections of Energy Demand," RFF Working Paper Series, Resources for the Future, number dp-08-54, Nov.
• John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008, "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 22_08, Jan.
• Ekaterina Rozhkovskaya, 2008, "An Econometric Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Final Consumption Expenditure Components in the Republic of Belarus: Conceptual and Methodological Approaches, Estimation Results," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 12, issue 4, pages 27-41.
• Alexander Kudrov, 2008, "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of Sample Maxima in Stationary Random Sequences with Pseudo-Stationary Trend," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 11, issue 3, pages 64-86.
• Mikhail Kravtsov & Mikalai Burdyka & Burdyka Haspadarets & Natallia Shynkevich & Andrei Kartun, 2008, "An Econometric Macroeconomic Model for Analysis and Forecasting of Key Indicators of the Belarusian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 10, issue 2, pages 21-43.
• Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2008, "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, volume 23, pages 547-574.
• Mateescu, George Daniel, 2008, "Polynomial Interpolation and Applications to Autoregressive Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 5, issue 1, pages 119-129, March.
• Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2008, "Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 5, issue 1, pages 134-148, March.
• Jan Hanousek & Evžen KoÄ enda & Petr ZemÄ Ã­k, 2008, "Bond Market Emergence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, volume 7, issue 2, pages 141-168, August, DOI: 10.1177/097265270800700202.
• Sanjeev Gupta & Gulshan Kumar, 2008, "Growth Performance and Forecasts of Exports of Leather Industry in Punjab," Foreign Trade Review, , volume 43, issue 1, pages 27-41, April, DOI: 10.1177/0015732515080102.
• Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2008, "Forecasting Interest Rates in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, volume 2, issue 1, pages 1-41, March, DOI: 10.1177/097380100700200101.
• Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008, "A review of forecasting techniques for large datasets," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 203, issue 1, pages 109-115, January.
• Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008, "Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using Vecx* Models: an Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 203, issue 1, pages 91-108, January.
• Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling, 2008, "Managing Disinflation under Uncertainty," CDMA Conference Paper Series, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, number 0812, Aug.
• Mahmood-ul-Hasan Khan, 2008, "Short Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 4, pages 1-30.
• S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008, "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 4, pages 31-60.
• Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008, "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Working Paper Series, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, number 24, Jun.
• Shah Hussain, 2008, "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, number 26, Aug.
• Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008, "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series, Oxford Financial Research Centre, number 2008fe24.
• Katrin Assenmacher & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008, "Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using VECX* Models: An Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2008-03.
• Eric Koomen & Piet Rietveld & Ton Nijs, 2008, "Modelling land-use change for spatial planning support," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, volume 42, issue 1, pages 1-10, March, DOI: 10.1007/s00168-007-0155-1.
• Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008, "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, volume 42, issue 1, pages 11-37, March, DOI: 10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2.
• Jan Ritsema van Eck & Eric Koomen, 2008, "Characterising urban concentration and land-use diversity in simulations of future land use," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, volume 42, issue 1, pages 123-140, March, DOI: 10.1007/s00168-007-0141-7.
• Andrea Silvestrini & Matteo Salto & Laurent Moulin & David Veredas, 2008, "Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 34, issue 3, pages 493-524, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-007-0132-7.
• Roger Bowden & Jennifer Zhu, 2008, "The agribusiness cycle and its wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 34, issue 3, pages 603-622, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-007-0140-7.
• Solveig Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2008, "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, volume 21, issue 3, pages 505-520, July, DOI: 10.1007/s00148-006-0088-5.
• Lars Stentoft, 2008, "Option Pricing using Realized Volatility," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-13, Mar.
• Roxana Chiriac & Valeri Voev, 2008, "Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-39, Sep.
• Lars Stentoft, 2008, "American Option Pricing using GARCH models and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-41, Sep.
• Christian M. Dahl & Henrik Hansen & John Smidt, 2008, "The cyclical component factor model," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-44, Sep.
• Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-55, Sep.
• Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2008-56, Sep.
• Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, volume 46, issue 1, pages 3-56, March, DOI: 10.1257/jel.46.1.3.
• Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008, "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, volume 40, issue 01, pages 1-18, April, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.45534.
• Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008, "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, number 37608, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37608.
• Nicola, Danieli Scalcon & Freitas, Clailton Ataides & Paz, Marlon Vidal, 2008, "Previsão Dos Preços Do Açúcar E Análise Da Sua Volatilidade No Mercado Futuro Brasileiro (2003 A 2007): Uma Aplicação De Modelos Da Família Arch," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER), number 108829, Jul, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.108829.
• Clements, Michael P., , "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics, number 269880, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269880.
• Clements, Michael P., , "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics, number 269881, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269881.
• Gheorghe Zaman, 2008, "Economic Effects Of Cee Countries Integration Into The European Union," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, volume 2, issue 10, pages 1-2.
• Dijk, D. van & Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2008, "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," CeNDEF Working Papers, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance, number 08-03.
• Diks, C.G.H. & Dijk, D. van & Panchenko, V., 2008, "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," CeNDEF Working Papers, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance, number 08-10.
• Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2008, "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns More Predictable Than Stock Returns?," ERES, European Real Estate Society (ERES), number eres2008_252, Jan.
• Anita Staneva, 2008, "Analysis of the Labour Market in Bulgaria through a Error Correction Model," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 90-106.
• Gruber, Johannes & Lee, Gabriel, 2008, "Bank lending effect on German commercial property prices," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 428, Jul.
• Sylvain Martel, 2008, "A Structural VAR Approach to Core Inflation in Canada," Discussion Papers, Bank of Canada, number 08-10, DOI: 10.34989/sdp-2008-10.
• Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2008, "Uncertainty and the price of risk in a nominal convergence process," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 0802, Jan.
• Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008, "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2008-11, Aug.
• Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008, "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, volume 103, issue 484, pages 1419-1437.
• Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008, "Forecasting Using Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to U.K. Inflation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 26, pages 33-41, January.
• Valérie Chauvin & Antoine Devulder, 2008, "An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area," Working papers, Banque de France, number 192.
• Karim Barhoumi & Gerhard R nstler & riccardo Cristadoro & Ard Den Reijer & Audrone Jakaitiene & Piotr Jelonek & Antonio Rua & Ruth Karsten & Szilard Benk & Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers, Banque de France, number 215.
• Karim Barhoumi & V ronique Brunhes-Lesage & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara & Bertrand Pluyaud & Rouvreau, B., 2008, "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers, Banque de France, number 222.
• Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Gu gan, 2008, "Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models," Working papers, Banque de France, number 224.
• BARHOUMI, K. & BRUNHES-LESAGE, V. & DARNÉ, O. & Laurent Ferrara & PLUYAUD, B. & ROUVREAU, B., 2008, "OPTIM : un outil de prévision trimestrielle du PIB de la France," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 171, pages 31-42.
• Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B. & Darné, O., 2008, "OPTIM: a quarterly forecasting tool for French GDP," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 31-47, Autumn.
• Q. Farooq Akram., 2008, "What horizon for targeting inflation?," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2007/13, Jan.
• Christian Huurman & Francesco Ravazzolo & Chen Zhou, 2008, "The power of weather. Some empirical evidence on predicting day-ahead power prices through weather forecasts," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/08, May.
• Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008, "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/22, Dec.
• Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008, "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2008/23, Dec.
• Dong Heon Kim & Myoungjae Lee, 2008, "The Analysis of daily Korea call rate (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 14, issue 4, pages 85-112, December.
• Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2008, "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts: Theory and Applications to S&P 500 and NASDAQ Return Indices," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics, number wp2008-007, Jun.
• Ricardo Fuscaldi de Figueiredo Baptista & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2008, "Analysis of performance of technical trading rules applied to the market of intraday Ibovespa index futures contracts," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, volume 6, issue 2, pages 205-234.
• Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008, "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers, Brock University, Department of Economics, number 0803, Apr.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008, "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0807, Jan.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Schleicher, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008, "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0808, Jan.
• Assenmacher-Wesche, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2008, "A VECX* Model of the Swiss Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0809, Feb.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008, "Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0813, Mar.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2008, "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0814, Mar.
• Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008, "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0824, May.
• Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008, "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 2/RT/08, Apr.
• D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008, "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 3/RT/08, Jun.
• D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008, "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 9/RT/08, Nov.
• Eduardo Mendes & Les Oxley & Marco Reale, 2008, "Some New Approaches to Forecasting the Price of Electricity: A Study of Californian Market," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 08/05, Jan.
• Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008, "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics, number 131, Jul.
• Pelinescu, Elena & Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2008, "Choosing between alternative measures of core inflation using bounded rationality and cognitive biases," Revista de Economie Industriala (Journal of Industrial Eonomics), Centre for Industrial Economics and Services, volume 6, issue 1, pages 42-52, March.
• Toderoiu, Filon & MATEESCU, Mihaela, 2008, "Ratings trends and market meat in Romania in the context of the current food crisis," Revista de Economie Industriala (Journal of Industrial Eonomics), Centre for Industrial Economics and Services, volume 6, issue 2, pages 88-95, June.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2004, "Real Time Econometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 1169.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004, "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 1237.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004, "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 1358.
• Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007, "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2116.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008, "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2263.
• Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008, "A VECX Model of the Swiss Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2281.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2008, "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2293.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008, "Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2326.
• Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2008, "The Information Content of KOF Indicators on Swiss Current Account Data Revisions," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2370.
• Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008, "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2371.
• Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T.K. Wan, 2008, "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2387.
• Jan Grossarth-Maticek & Johannes Mayr, 2008, "Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, volume 61, issue 07, pages 17-29, April.
• Steffen Henzel, 2008, "Learning Trend Inflation – Can Signal Extraction Explain Survey Forecasts?," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
• Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008, "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 57.
• Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008, "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers, The Conference Board, Economics Program, number 08-04, Nov.
• Luis Fernando Gamboa & Jesus Otero, 2008, "An estimation of the pattern of diffusion of mobile phones: the case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo, Universidad del Rosario, number 5149, Nov.
• Juan Camilo Santana, 2008, "La curva de rendimientos: una revisión metodológica y nuevas aproximaciones de estimación," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Sergio Botero Botero & Jovan Alfonso Cano Cano, 2008, "Análisis de series de tiempo para la predicción de los precios de la energía en la bolsa de Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Carlos Andrés Cano Gamboa & Marcela Orozco Chávez & Luis Alfonso Sánchez Betancur, 2008, "Mecanismo de transmisión de las tasas de interés en Colombia (2001-2007)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Elkin Castano & Karoll Gómez & Santiago Gallón, 2008, "Pronóstico y estructuras de volatilidad multiperíodo de la tasa de cambio del peso colombiano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Eliana Roc�o Gonz�lez Molano, 2008, "Pron�sticos de agregados a partir de desagregados Caso emp�rico: Inflaci�n de alimentos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4596, Apr.
• Ignacio Lozano & Hern�n Rinc�n & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008, "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas p�blicas de Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4597, Apr.
• Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n, 2008, "Administraci�n de fondos de pensiones y multifondos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4598, Apr.
• Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n & Juan Mario Laserna & Ivonne Mart�nez, 2008, "Recomendaciones para la modificaci�n del r�gimen de pensiones obligatorias de Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4599, Apr.
• Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Leonardo Morales & Jairo Nu�ez, 2008, "The Cost of Avoiding Crime: The Case of Bogot�," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 4600, Apr.
• James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008, "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre, number g-172, Feb.
• WANG , Shin-Huei & HSIAO, Cheng, 2008, "An easy test for two stationary long processes being uncorrelated via AR approximations," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2008047, Aug.
• Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008, "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 112, Sep.
• Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008, "Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts," CPB Document, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 172, Oct.
• Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2008, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6706, Feb.
• Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008, "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: A model comparison for German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6708, Feb.
• Reichlin, Lucrezia & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico, 2008, "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6746, Mar.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Mazzi, Gian Luigi, 2008, "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7007, Oct.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2008, "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7008, Oct.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Jordà , Ã’scar, 2008, "Path Forecast Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7009, Oct.
• George Atsalakis & Dimitrios Nezis & George Matalliotakis & Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Christos Skiadas, 2008, "Forecasting Mortality Rate Using a Neural Network with Fuzzy Inference System," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0806, Nov.
• George Xanthos & Dikaios Tserkezos, 2008, "Optimal Portfolio Analysis for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland During 2001-2006 Period," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0813, Nov.
• George Atsalakis & Camelia Ioana Ucenic & Christos Skiadas, 2008, "Forecasting Unemployment Rate Using a Neural Network with Fuzzy Inference System," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0823, Sep.
• Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008, "Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, number 2008-27.
• Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008, "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility : a forecast evaluation," UC3M Working papers. Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, number we081810, Apr.
• Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2008, "Short and long run causality measures: theory and inference," UC3M Working papers. Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, number we083720, Jul.
• Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2008, "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, number we084422, Sep.
• Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2008, "Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística, number ws081406, Mar.
• Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Peña, Daniel & Rodríguez, Julio, 2008, "A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística, number ws084512, Sep.
• Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2008, "Extremum Estimation when the Predictors are Estimated from Large Panels," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, volume 9, issue 2, pages 201-222, November.
• Fullerton, Thomas M. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008, "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, volume 40, issue 1, pages 385-402, April.
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• Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008, "Forecasting the Swiss economy using VECX models: An exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 203, issue , pages 91-108, January.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008, "Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 75, issue 24, pages 318-325.
• Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008, "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 08-03.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008, "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 08-04.
• Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008, "Has modelsí forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 09-02.
• BRIO, Esther B. & PEROTE, Javier, 2008, "Forecasting Market Crashes: Does Density Specification Matter?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 8, issue 1, pages 53-58.
• Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008, "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2008_033.
• Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008, "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2008-035, Jun.
• Van Nieuwenhuyze, Christophe & Benk, Szilard & Rünstler, Gerhard & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Den Reijer, Ard & Jakaitiene, Audrone & Jelonek, Piotr & Rua, António & Ruth, Karsten & Barhoumi, Karim, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 84, May.
• Dées, Stéphane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Mann, Michael, 2008, "Assessing the factors behind oil price changes," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 855, Jan.
• Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008, "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 865, Feb.
• Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008, "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 876, Feb.
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• Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent, 2008, "The role of country-specific trade and survey data in forecasting euro area manufacturing production: perspective from large panel factor models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 894, May.
• Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2008, "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 901, May.
• Maurin, Laurent & Drechsel, Katja, 2008, "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 925, Aug.
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• Angelini, Elena & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Rünstler, Gerhard & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008, "Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 949, Oct.
• Angelini, Elena & Rünstler, Gerhard & Bańbura, Marta, 2008, "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 953, Oct.
• Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008, "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 966, Nov.
• Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2008, "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 969, Nov.
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• Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008, "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 118, issue 530, pages 1107-1127, July.
• Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & ShaunP. Vahey, 2008, "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 118, issue 530, pages 1128-1144, July.
• Christian Schulz, 2008, "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers, Bank of Estonia, number 2008-02, Oct, revised 30 Oct 2008.
• Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008, "Volatility spillovers, interdependence and comovements: A Markov Switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 52, issue 6, pages 3011-3026, February.
• Sims, Christopher A., 2008, "Improving monetary policy models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 8, pages 2460-2475, August.
• Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008, "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 8, pages 2690-2721, August.
• Matheson, Troy D., 2008, "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 98, issue 2, pages 161-166, February.
• Issler, Joao Victor & de Mello Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos & de Carvalho Guillen, Osmani Teixeira, 2008, "The welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty in the post-war period," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 98, issue 2, pages 167-175, February.
• Marmer, Vadim, 2008, "Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 142, issue 1, pages 1-27, January.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & Gottschling, Andreas & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert, 2008, "Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 144, issue 1, pages 175-192, May.
• De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008, "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 146, issue 2, pages 318-328, October.
• Loss, Frederic & Malavolti-Grimal, Estelle & Verge, Thibaud & Berges-Sennou, Fabian, 2008, "European competition policy modernization: From notifications to legal exception," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 52, issue 1, pages 77-98, January.
• Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008, "Economic and financial crises and the predictability of U.S. stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 15, issue 3, pages 468-480, June.
• Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2008, "Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 15, issue 4, pages 729-750, September.
• Neuhoff, Karsten & Ehrenmann, Andreas & Butler, Lucy & Cust, Jim & Hoexter, Harriet & Keats, Kim & Kreczko, Adam & Sinden, Graham, 2008, "Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 4, pages 1990-2008, July.
• Los, Cornelis A. & Yu, Bing, 2008, "Persistence characteristics of the Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, volume 17, issue 1, pages 64-82.
• Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2008, "Volatility forecasting: Intra-day versus inter-day models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, volume 18, issue 5, pages 449-465, December.