Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2009

• Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009, "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data : A semi-parametric modelling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00344839, Nov.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009, "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables : One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00423871, Dec.
• Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux, 2009, "Forecasting chaotic systems: The role of local Lyapunov exponents," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00431726, Sep, DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2008.09.017.
• Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Vignal, 2009, "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Post-Print, HAL, number halshs-00307606, Apr, DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2008.07.005.
• Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Vignal, 2009, "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL, number halshs-00307606, Apr, DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2008.07.005.
• Heinen, Florian & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Kruse, Robinson, 2009, "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP), Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, number dp-433, Nov.
• Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Evaluating German Business Cycle Forecasts Under an Asymmetric Loss Function," Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, number 200905, Jul.
• Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2009, "Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries," Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, number 200906, Sep.
• Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009, "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies, number F-2009-02, Mar.
• Li, Feng & Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert, 2009, "Flexible Modeling of Conditional Distributions Using Smooth Mixtures of Asymmetric Student T Densities," Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), number 233, Oct.
• Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2009, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series With Locally Adaptive Signal Extraction," Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), number 234, Oct.
• Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009, "Macroeconomic Factors and Oil Futures Prices: A Data-Rich Model," Research Papers in Economics, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, number 2009:7, Feb.
• Lönnbark, Carl, 2009, "Uncertainty of Multiple Period Risk Measures," Umeå Economic Studies, Umeå University, Department of Economics, number 768, Apr.
• Lönnbark, Carl & Holmberg, Ulf & Brännäs, Kurt, 2009, "Value at Risk for Large Portfolios," Umeå Economic Studies, Umeå University, Department of Economics, number 769, Apr.
• Lönnbark, Carl, 2009, "On risk prediction," Umeå Economic Studies, Umeå University, Department of Economics, number 770, May.
• Yan-Leung Cheung & Yin-Wong Cheung & Alan T. K. Wan, 2009, "A High-Low Model of Daily Stock Price Ranges," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, number 032009, Jan.
• Teresa Leal Linares & Javier J. Pérez, 2009, "Un sistema ARIMA con agregación temporal para la previsión y el seguimiento del déficit del Estado," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, volume 190, issue 3, pages 27-58, June.
• Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009, "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, number gd08-032, Feb.
• Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Reno, 2009, "Volatility Forecasting: The Jumps Do Matter," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, number gd08-036, Mar.
• C. L. Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009, "A Latent Variable Approach to Forecasting the Unemployment Rate," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, number wp2009n19, Jul.
• Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2009, "A Hierarchical Procedure for the Combination of Forecasts ; This is a revised version of Working Paper 228, Economics Series, October 2008, which includes some changes. The most important change regards the reference of Kisinbay (2007), which was not," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies, number 240, Jul.
• Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2009, "Combining Forecasts Based on Multiple Encompassing Tests in a Macroeconomic Core System," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies, number 243, Sep.
• Mehmet Emin YILDIZ & Abdullah YALAMA & Güven SEVİL, 2009, "Sermaye yapısı teorilerinin geçerliliğinin test edilmesi: Panel veri analizi kullanılarak İMKB-imalat sektörü üzerinde ampirik bir uygulama," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, volume 24, issue 278, pages 25-45.
• Khurshid M. Kiani, 2009, "Asymmetries in Macroeconomic Time Series in Eleven Asian Economies," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, volume 8, issue 1, pages 37-54, April.
• Per Asberg Sommar & Hovick Shahnazarian, 2009, "Interdependencies between Expected Default Frequency and the Macro Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, volume 5, issue 3, pages 83-110, September.
• Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2009, "Forecasting Romanian Financial System Stability using a Stochastic Simulation Model," Working Papers, International Network for Economic Research - INFER, number 2009.4.
• Youssef Boulaksil & Philip Hans Franses, 2009, "Experts' Stated Behavior," Interfaces, INFORMS, volume 39, issue 2, pages 168-171, April, DOI: 10.1287/inte.1080.0421.
• Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel., 2009, "Inflation Targeting Twenty Years on: Where, When, Why, With what Effects, What lies ahead?," Documentos de Trabajo, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., number 360.
• Benavides, Guillermo, 2009, "Predictive Accuracy of Futures Options Implied Volatility: the Case of the Exchange Rate Futures Mexican Peso-Us Dollar," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, volume 0, issue 09, pages 55-95, segundo s.
• Giancarlo Bruno, 2009, "Non-linear relation between industrial production and business surveys data," ISAE Working Papers, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), number 119, Sep.
• Namýk Kemal ERDOGAN & Nevin UZGOREN, 2009, "Box-Jenkins ve Nonparametrik Regresyon Yöntemlerinin Etkinliklerinin Karsilastirilmasi: IMKB-100 Endeksine Yonelik Bir Uygulama," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, volume 10, issue 1, pages 1-19, November.
• Ebru Caglayan & Tugba Dayioglu, 2009, "Doviz Kuru Getiri Volatilitesinin Kosullu Degisen Varyans Modelleri ile Ongorusu," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, volume 9, issue 1, pages 1-16, May.
• Cem Kadilar & Muammer Simsek & Cagdas Hakan Aladag, 2009, "Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, volume 9, issue 1, pages 17-29, May.
• Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2009, "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 4537, Oct.
• Wolfgang Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2009, "Measuring and Modeling Risk Using High-Frequency Data," Springer Books, Springer, chapter 13, in: Wolfgang K. Härdle & Nikolaus Hautsch & Ludger Overbeck, "Applied Quantitative Finance", DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-69179-2_13.
• Margherita Velucchi, 2009, "Regime switching: Italian financial markets over a century," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, volume 18, issue 1, pages 67-86, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10260-007-0075-3.
• Khurshid Kiani, 2009, "Inflation in Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), volume 16, issue 1, pages 34-46, May, DOI: 10.1007/s11300-009-0057-2.
• Gary Koop & Dimitris Korompilis, 2009, "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, number 0917, Aug.
• Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2009, "A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 30, issue 2, pages 173-180, March, DOI: 10.1198/jbes.2009.08171.
• Jeroen Rombouts & Marno Verbeek, 2009, "Evaluating portfolio Value-at-Risk using semi-parametric GARCH models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 9, issue 6, pages 737-745, DOI: 10.1080/14697680902785284.
• Adnan Kasman, 2009, "Estimating Value-at-Risk for the Turkish Stock Index Futures in the Presence of Long Memory Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, volume 9, issue 1, pages 1-14.
• Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2009, "Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 09-061/4, Jul.
• Tim Willems, 2009, "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 09-074/2, Aug, revised 26 Mar 2010.
• Jan G. de Gooijer & Cees G.H. Diks & Lukasz T. Gatarek, 2009, "Information Flows around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 09-107/4, Nov.
• Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009, "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-608, Jan.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009, "What Happened to Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-636, Aug.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2009, "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-637, Aug.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009, "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-643, Aug.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009, "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-644, Aug.
• Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009, "Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-650, Aug.
• Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009, "Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-651, Aug.
• Michael McAleer, 2009, "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-652, Aug.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009, "Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-667, Sep.
• Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009, "Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-669, Sep.
• Bernardo da Veiga & Felix Chan & Michael McAleer, 2009, "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-683, Oct.
• Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009, "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, number CIRJE-F-686, Oct.
• Victor Aguirregabiria, 2009, "A Method for Implementing Counterfactual Experiments in Models with Multiple Equilibria," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics, number tecipa-381, Oct.
• Xin Jin & John M Maheu, 2009, "Modelling Realized Covariances," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics, number tecipa-382, Nov.
• Fabio Canova, 2009, "What Explains The Great Moderation in the U.S.? A Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 7, issue 4, pages 697-721, June.
• David Woods & Mary Farrugia & Mitchell Pirie, 2009, "The Australian Treasury’s fiscal aggregate projection model," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 37-46, September.
• Marmer, Vadim, 2009, "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts," Microeconomics.ca working papers, Vancouver School of Economics, number vadim_marmer-2009-60, Nov, revised 03 Nov 2009.
• Alfredo García-Hiernaux, 2009, "Forecasting linear dynamical systems using subspace methods," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-02.
• Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009, "A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-07.
• Michael McAleer, 2009, "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-10.
• Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009, "Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-13.
• Jose Angelo Divino & Michael McAleer, 2009, "Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-15.
• Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009, "Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-18.
• Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009, "What Happened to Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-19.
• Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009, "Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, number 2009-20.
• Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2009, "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Working Papers, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics, number 2072/15810.
• Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009, "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, number 2009-10, May.
• Francesco Audrino & Dominik Colangelo, 2009, "Option trading strategies based on semi-parametric implied volatility surface prediction," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, number 2009-24, Aug.
• Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2009, "Modelling Real Gdp Per Capita In The Usa:Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, volume 4, issue 1(7)_ Spr.
• Klaus Prettner & Robert M. Kunst, 2009, "The Dynamic Interrelations between Unequal Neighbors: An Austro-German Case Study," Vienna Economics Papers, University of Vienna, Department of Economics, number vie0913, Aug.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009, "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 41, issue 2‐3, pages 479-489, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00216.x.
• Monika Oleksiak, 2009, "Satisfaction Drivers in Retail Banking: Comparison of Partial Least Squares and Covariance Based Methods," Working Papers, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics, number 34, Mar.
• Sebastian Orzel & Aleksander Weron, 2009, "Calibration of the subdiffusive Black–Scholes model," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/09/02.
• Lee, Jim & Crowley, Patrick M., 2009, "Evaluating the stresses from ECB monetary policy in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 11/2009.
• Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009, "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 35/2009.
• Knüppel, Malte, 2009, "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,28.
• Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009, "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,03.
• Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009, "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,07.
• Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2009, "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2009,11.
• Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2009, "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 2009/18.
• Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009, "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, volume 3, pages 1-33, DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2009-.
• Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2009, "Modeling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1487.
• Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2009, "Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-based Indicators vs. Google Trends," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 155.
• Amendola, Alessandra & Storti, Giuseppe, 2009, "Combination of multivariate volatility forecasts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-007.
• Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Myšičková, Alena, 2009, "Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-009.
• Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Mihoci, Andrija, 2009, "Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-044.
• Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009, "Depression econometrics: A FAVAR model of monetary policy during the Great Depression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2009-054.

2008

• Solveig Erlandsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2008, "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, volume 21, issue 3, pages 505-520, July, DOI: 10.1007/s00148-006-0088-5.
• Wei Li, 2008, "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, volume 3, issue 4, pages 627-643, December, DOI: 10.1007/s11459-008-0031-7.
• Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2008, "Volatility and VaR forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, volume 10, issue 3, pages 169-196, September, DOI: 10.1007/s10108-007-9030-6.
• Roger Hammersland, 2008, "Classical identification: A viable road for data to inform structural modeling," Discussion Papers, Statistics Norway, Research Department, number 562, Oct.
• Roger Hammersland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008, "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence using a procedure of Structural Model Design," Discussion Papers, Statistics Norway, Research Department, number 569, Dec.
• Ali Choudhary & Adnan Haider, 2008, "Neural Network Models for Inflation Forecasting: An Appraisal," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 0808, Nov.
• Young-Bae Kim, 2008, "Is There A Trade-off Between Regional Growth and National Income? Theory and Evidence from the EU," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey, number 1008, Nov.
• Daniel Buncic, 2008, "A Note on Long Horizon Forecasts of Nonlinear Models of Real Exchange Rates: Comments on Rapach and Wohar (2006)," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2008-02, Feb.
• Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008, "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2008-10, May.
• Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008, "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2008-23, Oct.
• Stavros Degiannakis & Alexandra Livada & Epaminondas Panas, 2008, "Rolling-sampled parameters of ARCH and Levy-stable models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 40, issue 23, pages 3051-3067, DOI: 10.1080/00036840600994039.
• Fulvio Corsi & Stefan Mittnik & Christian Pigorsch & Uta Pigorsch, 2008, "The Volatility of Realized Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 27, issue 1-3, pages 46-78, DOI: 10.1080/07474930701853616.
• Stavros Degiannakis, 2008, "ARFIMAX and ARFIMAX-TARCH realized volatility modeling," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 35, issue 10, pages 1169-1180, DOI: 10.1080/02664760802271017.
• Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2008, "SPEC model selection algorithm for ARCH models: an options pricing evaluation framework," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 4, issue 6, pages 419-423, DOI: 10.1080/17446540701765258.
• Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2008, "China's economic growth and its real exchange rate," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 1, issue 2, pages 123-145, DOI: 10.1080/17538960802076455.
• Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008, "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 3, issue 2, pages 195-207, DOI: 10.1080/17421770801996656.
• V. Dordonnat & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms & A. Dessertaine & J. Collet, 2008, "An Hourly Periodic State Space Model for Modelling French National Electricity Load," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 08-008/4, Jan.
• Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008, "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 08-050/4, May.
• Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. van Dijk, 2008, "Bayesian Forecasting of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall using Adaptive Importance Sampling," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 08-092/4, Oct.
• Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008, "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 08-102/3, Oct.
• Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008, "Out-of-sample Comparison of Copula Specifications in Multivariate Density Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers, Tinbergen Institute, number 08-105/4, Nov.
• Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008, "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics, number tecipa-319, May.
• Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008, "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics, number tecipa-336, Sep.
• Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008, "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 6, issue 1, pages 122-157, March.
• Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008, "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, volume 6, issue 2-3, pages 621-633, 04-05.
• Karl Whelan & Antonello D'Agostino, 2008, "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications, School of Economics, University College Dublin, number 10197/252, Apr.
• Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008, "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics, number UWEC-2008-11-FC, Feb, revised Oct 2009.
• Laurent Moulin & Matteo Sala & Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008, "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficit. The case of France," ULB Institutional Repository, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2013/136217.
• Chunming Yuan, 2008, "Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers, UMBC Department of Economics, number 09-115, May, revised 01 Nov 2009.
• Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008, "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, number 1117, Aug, revised Oct 2008.
• Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008, "Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, number 2008-04, Jan.
• Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008, "Modeling Tick-by-Tick Realized Correlations," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, number 2008-05, Jan.
• Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008, "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, number 2008-16, Aug.
• Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008, "Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter," Department of Economics University of Siena, Department of Economics, University of Siena, number 534, Jun.
• Dekkers, J. & Koomen, E., 2008, "Valuation of open space: Hedonic house price analyses in the Dutch Randstad region," Serie Research Memoranda, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics, number 0024.
• Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008, "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 118, issue 530, pages 1107-1127, July, DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x.
• Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008, "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 118, issue 530, pages 1128-1144, July, DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02163.x.
• S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008, "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 40, issue 2‐3, pages 319-340, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00115.x.
• Clements, Michael P., 2008, "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics, number 869.
• Clements, Michael P., 2008, "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics, number 870.
• Jacek Kotlowski, 2008, "Forecasting inflation with dynamic factor model – the case of Poland," Working Papers, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics, number 24, Feb.
• Geoffrey Poitras & John Heaney, 2008, ""How Is The Stock Market Doing?" Using Absence Of Arbitrage To Measure Stock Market Performance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., volume 4, issue 01, pages 1-27, DOI: 10.1142/S2010495208500012.
• Adam Misiorek, 2008, "Short-term forecasting of electricity prices: Do we need a different model for each hour?," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/08/01.
• Kaaresvirta, Juuso & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2008, "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), number 22/2008.
• Wang, Mu-Chun, 2008, "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2008,04.
• Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008, "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 2008,14.
• Chiriac, Roxana & Voev, Valeri, 2008, "Modelling and forecasting multivariate realized volatility," CoFE Discussion Papers, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE), number 08/06.
• Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas, 2008, "Does global liquidity matter for monetary policy in the Euro area?," Discussion Papers, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics, number 2008/13.
• Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008, "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Discussion Papers, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics, number 2008/7.
• Sucarrat, Genaro, 2008, "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Return Variability," Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 2008-18.
• Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Schaling, Eric, 2008, "Managing disinflation under uncertainty," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, number 1429.
• Döhrn, Roland & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Zimmermann, Tobias, 2008, "Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 80.
• Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mungo, Julius, 2008, "Value-at-risk and expected shortfall when there is long range dependence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-006.
• Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2008, "House prices and replacement cost: A mMicro-level analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-013.
• Chen, Shiyi & Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2008, "Support vector regression based GARCH model with application to forecasting volatility of financial returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-014.
• Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008, "Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-017.
• Schulz, Rainer & Staiber, Markus & Wersing, Martin & Werwatz, Axel, 2008, "The accuracy of long-term real estate valuations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-019.
• Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Pigorsch, Uta, 2008, "Measuring and modeling risk using high-frequency data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-045.
• Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008, "Bayesian demographic modeling and forecasting: An application to U.S. mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-052.
• Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008, "Modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality: A Bayesian approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-052a.
• Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008, "A note on the model selection risk for ANOVA based adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-064.
• Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008, "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2008-073.
• Bühler, Georg & Jochem, Patrick, 2008, "CO₂ Emission Reduction in Freight Transports How to Stimulate Environmental Friendly Behaviour?," ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 08-066.
• Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008, "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 23, issue 4, pages 435-462, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1014.
• John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008, "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 23, issue 5, pages 553-583, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1018.
• Breitung Jörg, 2008, "Assessing the Rationality of Survey Expectations: The Probability Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 228, issue 5-6, pages 630-643, October, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2008-5-613.
• Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk & Roy P. M. M. Hoevenaars & Pieter Jelle Van der Sluis, 2008, "Forecasting market impact costs and identifying expensive trades," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 27, issue 1, pages 21-39, DOI: 10.1002/for.1052.
• Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008, "Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 27, issue 4, pages 279-291, DOI: 10.1002/for.1061.
• Marie Diron, 2008, "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 27, issue 5, pages 371-390, DOI: 10.1002/for.1067.
• Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008, "Forecasting euro area variables with German pre-EMU data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 27, issue 6, pages 465-481, DOI: 10.1002/for.1064.
• Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2008, "Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 27, issue 7, pages 566-586, DOI: 10.1002/for.1072.
• Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008, "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, volume 27, issue i03, DOI: http://hdl.handle.net/10.18637/jss..
• Danilo Santini & David Poyer, 2008, "Motor Vehicle Output and GDP, 1968–2007," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 36, issue 4, pages 483-491, December, DOI: 10.1007/s11293-008-9139-5.
• Dag Kolsrud, 2008, "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 31, issue 1, pages 21-43, February, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-007-9105-3.
• Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2008, "Direct democracy: obstacle to reform?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, volume 19, issue 2, pages 81-93, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10602-008-9039-3.
• Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck, 2008, "Macroeconomic effects of Slovenia’s integration in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, volume 35, issue 4, pages 391-403, September, DOI: 10.1007/s10663-008-9072-5.
• Klaus Weyerstrass & Reinhard Neck, 2008, "Macroeconomic Consequences of the Adoption of the Euro: The Case of Slovenia," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 14, issue 1, pages 1-10, February, DOI: 10.1007/s11294-007-9131-x.
• François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret & Alain Coën, 2008, "Forecasting Irregularly Spaced UHF Financial Data: Realized Volatility vs UHF-GARCH Models," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 14, issue 1, pages 112-124, February, DOI: 10.1007/s11294-008-9134-2.
• Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008, "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, volume 36, issue 4, pages 427-450, May, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9097-8.
• Thomas Busch, 2008, "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, volume 11, issue 1, pages 61-81, March, DOI: 10.1007/s11147-008-9024-z.
• Kenton Yee, 2008, "A Bayesian framework for combining valuation estimates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 30, issue 3, pages 339-354, April, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-007-0055-6.
• Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008, "Negative Volatility Spillovers in the Unrestricted ECCC-GARCH Model," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 08-189, Feb, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005552237.
• Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2008, "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 08-202, Jan, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005640680.
• Kristóf, Tamás, 2008, "A csődelőrejelzés és a nem fizetési valószínűség számításának módszertani kérdéseiről
  [Some methodological questions of bankruptcy prediction and probability of default estimation]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 5, pages 441-461.
• G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2008, "Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series, Bank of Lithuania, number 1, Sep.
• Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008, "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers, Latvijas Banka, number 2008/05, Sep.
• Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008, "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche, GREEN, number 0801.