Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2013

• Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2013, "Multivariate Volatility Modeling Of Electricity Futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 28, issue 5, pages 743-761, August.
• Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2013, "Semiparametric Vector Mem," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 28, issue 7, pages 1067-1086, November.
• Libero Monteforte & Gianluca Moretti, 2013, "Real‐Time Forecasts of Inflation: The Role of Financial Variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 1, pages 51-61, January.
• Michael McAleer & Juan‐Ángel Jiménez‐Martín & Teodosio Pérez‐Amaral, 2013, "International Evidence on GFC‐Robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 3, pages 267-288, April.
• Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013, "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 5, pages 385-394, August.
• Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos‐Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2013, "The Role of High‐Frequency Intra‐daily Data, Daily Range and Implied Volatility in Multi‐period Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 32, issue 6, pages 561-576, September.
• Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013, "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 45, issue 2‐3, pages 449-463, March, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12009.
• Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013, "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 45, issue 6, pages 1045-1067, September, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12043.
• Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013, "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 45, issue 7, pages 1375-1414, October, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12056.
• Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013, "Irrational fads, short‐term memory emulation, and asset predictability," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, volume 22, issue 4, pages 213-219, November, DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2013.05.005.
• Albert Mafusire & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013, "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., volume 13, issue 2, pages 261-280, June, DOI: 10.1515/GEJ-2013-0015.
• Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013, "Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/01, Feb, revised 15 Apr 2013.
• Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2013, "Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/02, Feb.
• Jakub Nowotarski & Eran Raviv & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2013, "An empirical comparison of alternate schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/07, Aug.
• Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013, "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: Utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/11, Dec.
• Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2013, "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/12, Dec.
• Tao Hong & Jason Wilson & Jingrui Xie, 2013, "Long term probabilistic load forecasting and normalization with hourly information," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/13, Dec.
• Tao Hong & Pu Wang, 2013, "Fuzzy interaction regression for short term load forecasting," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/14, Dec.
• Jakub Nowotarski, 2013, "Short-term forecasting of electricity spot prices using model averaging (Krótkoterminowe prognozowanie spotowych cen energii elektrycznej z wykorzystaniem uśredniania modeli)," HSC Research Reports, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number HSC/13/17, Dec.
• Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2013, "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions Versus Large Information set," Working Papers, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, number 2013-10-14, Oct.
• Ying Chen & Linlin Niu, 2013, "Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model with Applications," Working Papers, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, number 2013-10-14, Oct.
• Ying Chen & Bo Li & Linlin Niu, 2013, "A Local Vector Autoregressive Framework and its Applications to Multivariate Time Series Monitoring and Forecasting," Working Papers, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, number 2013-12-05, Dec.
• Riané de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander, 2013, "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, volume 7, issue 1, March.
• Haavio, Markus & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013, "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, number 35/2013.
• Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013, "The empirical (ir)relevance of the interest rate assumption for central bank forecasts," Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 11/2013.
• Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013, "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank, number 27/2013.
• Wolters, Maik H., 2013, "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics, number 2013-03.
• Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013, "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 2013/09.
• Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013, "Forecasting the real price of oil in a changing world: A forecast combination approach," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 2013/11.
• Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013, "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), number 2013/22.
• Michala, Dimitra & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2013, "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," EIF Working Paper Series, European Investment Fund (EIF), number 2013/17.
• Kyritsis, Costas & Hytis, Evangelos, 2013, "Simulation for the estimation of the survival probabilities of enterprises and banks within a prolonged duration of the debt crisis," EconStor Conference Papers, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 125610, May.
• Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013, "Der Einfluss des Erdölpreises auf die Energiesteuerprognose," Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), number 1849.
• Afanasyeva, Elena, 2013, "Atypical behavior of credit: Evidence from a monetary VAR," IMFS Working Paper Series, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), number 70.
• Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2013, "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 7/2013.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Drechsel, Katja & Loose, Brigitte & Zeddies, Götz, 2013, "Mittelfristige Projektion der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und der Staatsfinanzen in Deutschland," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 1, issue 1, pages 33-37.
• Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Scherer, Jan-Christopher & Schultz, Birgit & , 2013, "Konjunkturelle Flaute zum Jahresende 2012 – aber auch Anzeichen für eine mäßige Brise im neuen Jahr," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), volume 19, issue 1, pages 4-5.
• Schulz, Rainer & Wersing, Martin & Werwatz, Axel, 2013, "Automated valuation modelling: A specification exercise," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2013-046.
• Schreiber, Sven, 2013, "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79709.
• Theobald, Thomas, 2013, "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79911.
• Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013, "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 79925.
• Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013, "Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 80006.
• Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013, "The Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Interest Rate Assumption for Central Bank Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, number 80042.
• Traub, Stefan & Finkler, Sebastian, 2013, "Ein Grundsicherungsabstandsgebot für die Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung? Ergebnisse einer Mikrosimulation," Working papers of the ZeS, University of Bremen, Centre for Social Policy Research (ZeS), number 01/2013.
• Ivica Terzić & Marko Milojević, 2013, "Evaluating Measures Of Market Risk In Circumstances Of Global Financial Crisis – Empirical Evidence From Five Countries," CBU International Conference Proceedings, ISE Research Institute, volume 1, issue 0, pages 75-81, June, DOI: 10.12955/cbup.v1.17.
• Roberto Casarin & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Parallel Sequential Monte Carlo for Efficient Density Combination: The Deco Matlab Toolbox," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-09, Aug.
• Martin M. Andreasen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2013, "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-12, Nov.
• Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013, "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-13, 04.
• Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2013, "Nonlinear Forecasting With Many Predictors Using Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-16, 05.
• Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013, "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-18, Jun.
• Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2013, "Diffusion Indexes with Sparse Loadings," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-22, Mar.
• Nima Nonejad, 2013, "A Mixture Innovation Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model for Structural Breaks and Long Memory," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-24, 08.
• Niels S. Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2013, "Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2013-36, 10.
• Shu-Ling Chen & John D. Jackson & Hyeongwoo Kim & Pramesti Resiandini, 2013, "What Drives Commodity Prices?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University, number auwp2013-03, Feb.
• Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2013, "Gibbs Samplers for VARMA and Its Extensions," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, number 2013-604, Feb.
• Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013, "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 103, issue 3, pages 117-120, May, DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.117.
• Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013, "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 103, issue 3, pages 147-152, May, DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.147.
• John Beshears & James J. Choi & Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2013, "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 103, issue 3, pages 570-574, May, DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.570.
• R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013, "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 5, issue 2, pages 217-249, April.
• Barbara Rossi, 2013, "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, volume 51, issue 4, pages 1063-1119, December.
• Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013, "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, volume 51, issue 4, pages 1120-1154, December.
• Selen CAKMAKYAPAN & Atilla GOKTAS, 2013, "A Comparison Of Binary Logit And Probit Models With A Simulation Study," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, volume 2, issue 1, pages 1-17, JULY.
• Vedide Rezan USLU & Eren BAS & Ufuk YOLCU & Erol EGRIOGLU, 2013, "A New Fuzzy Time Series Analysis Approach By Using Differential Evolution Algorithm And Chronologically-Determined Weights," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, volume 2, issue 1, pages 18-30, JULY.
• Cagdas Hakan ALADAG & Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU, 2013, "Tl/Euro And Leu/Euro Exchange Rates Forecasting With Artificial Neural Network," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, volume 2, issue 2, pages 1-6, DECEMBER.
• Sakamoto, Hiroshi, 2013, "Prediction of the Prefectural Economy in Japan Using a Stochastic Model," AGI Working Paper Series, Asian Growth Research Institute, number 2013-02, Mar.
• Guastella, G. & Moro, D. & Sckokai, P. & Veneziani, M., 2013, "CAP Effects on Agricultural Investment Demand in Europe," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C., Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 150619, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.150619.
• Guastella, G. & Moro, D. & Sckokai, P. & Veneziani, M., 2013, "CAP Effects on Agricultural Investment Demand in Europe," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), number 149758, Jun, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149758.
• Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2013, "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Energy: Resources and Markets, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), number 148895, Mar, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.148895.
• Guastella, G. & Moro, D. & Sckokai, P. & Veneziani, M., 2013, "CAP Effects on Agricultural Investment Demand in Europe," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, number 152256, Jun, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.152256.
• Almánzar, Miguel & Torero, Máximo & Grebmer, Klaus von, 2013, "Futures Commodities Prices and Media Coverage," Discussion Papers, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), number 149414, May, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.149414.
• Miklós Virag & Tamás Nyitrai, 2013, "Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, volume 35, issue 2, pages 227-248, August.
• Rafael Cavalcanti de Araújo & Daniel Oliveira Cajueiro, 2013, "Combining term structure of interest rate forecasts: The Brazilian case," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], volume 14, issue 2, pages 102-121.
• Onur Ince, 2013, "Forecasting Exchange Rates Out-of-Sample with Panel Methods and Real-Time Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, number 13-04.
• Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2013, "“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”," AQR Working Papers, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, number 201309, Oct, revised Oct 2013.
• Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2013, "“Tourism demand forecasting with different neural networks models”," AQR Working Papers, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, number 201313, Nov, revised Nov 2013.
• Fulvio Baldovin & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Caraglio & Attilio Stella & Marco Zamparo, 2013, "Option pricing with non-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility," Papers, arXiv.org, number 1307.6322, Jul, revised May 2014.
• Ruslan Druzin, 2013, "About Possibility Of Usage Methodological Approaches To Bankruptcy Prediction," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 18.
• Todor Krastevich, 2013, "Using Predictive Modeling to Improve Direct Marketing Performance," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 25-55.
• Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013, "Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics, number 473, Apr.
• Doru Ioan Ardelean & Tania Angelica Lazar, 2013, "Using Mathematical Models Of Dynamic Programming For Environmental Investment Projects," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.
• Jon D. Samuels & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2013, "Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 13-11, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2013-11.
• Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013, "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 13-15, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2013-15.
• Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013, "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 13-25, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2013-25.
• Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013, "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 13-28, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2013-28.
• Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013, "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," IEFE Working Papers, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, number 55.
• Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2013, "Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution," IEFE Working Papers, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, number 56.
• Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013, "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 920, Jul.
• Matteo Luciani & Libero Monteforte, 2013, "Uncertainty and heterogeneity in factor models forecasting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 930, Sep.
• Elizondo Rocío, 2013, "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico Using an Affine Model," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2013-03, Apr.
• Paulo Mauricio Sánchez Beltrán & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2013, "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 775, Jul, DOI: 10.32468/be.775.
• Paulo M. Sánchez & Luis Fernando Melo, 2013, "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, volume 31, issue 72, pages 74-82, December, DOI: 10.1016/S0120-4483(13)70006-X.
• Milena Lipovina-Božović, 2013, "A Comparison Of The Var Model And The Pc Factor Model In Forecasting Inflation In Montenegro," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, volume 58, issue 198, pages 115-136, July - Se.
• Matthieu Bussière, 2013, "In Defense of Early Warning Signals," Working papers, Banque de France, number 420.
• Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013, "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers, Banque de France, number 436.
• Philippe Andrade & Valère Fourel & Ghysels, E. & Idier, I., 2013, "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," Working papers, Banque de France, number 437.
• Laurent Ferrara & Clément Marsilli & Ortega, J-P., 2013, "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Working papers, Banque de France, number 454.
• Delle Chiaie, S., 2013, "Pétrole et macroéconomie - Synthèse de l’atelier Banque de France du 14 novembre 2012," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 192, pages 111-116.
• S. Delle Chiaie., 2013, "Oil and the macroeconomy - Summary of the Banque de France workshop on 14 November 2012," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 29, pages 49-55, Spring.
• Barbara Rossi, 2015, "Conditional Predictive Density Evaluation in the Presence of Instabilities," Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics, number 688, Sep.
• Barbara Rossi, 2015, "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics, number 689, Sep.
• Magdalena Erdem & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2013, "Financial conditions and economic activity: a statistical approach," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
• Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013, "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 420, Jul.
• Bucevska Vesna, 2013, "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, volume 4, issue 1, pages 49-64, March, DOI: 10.2478/bsrj-2013-0005.
• Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013, "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, volume 16, issue 1, pages 23-44, February.
• Gary Koop & Lise Tole, 2013, "Forecasting the European carbon market," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, volume 176, issue 3, pages 723-741, June.
• Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua & Francisco Dias, 2013, "Dynamic Factor Models with Jagged Edge Panel Data: Taking on Board the Dynamics of the Idiosyncratic Components," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 75, issue 1, pages 80-102, February, DOI: obes.12006.
• Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013, "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 75, issue 5, pages 637-661, October.
• Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013, "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, volume 5, issue 3, pages 305-321, August.
• CIOBANU Dumitru & BAR Mary Violeta, 2013, "On The Prediction Of Exchange Rate Dollar/Euro With An Svm Model," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 65, issue 2, pages 91-109.
• Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013, "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2013/06, Feb.
• Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013, "Macroeconomic factors strike back: A Bayesian change-point model of time-varying risk exposures and premia in the U.S. cross-section," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2013/19, Aug.
• Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013, "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2013/20, Aug.
• Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013, "Dissecting the 2007-2009 real estate market bust: systematic pricing correction or just a housing fad?," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2013/22, Sep.
• Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2013, "Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets," Working Papers, Bank of Greece, number 154, Mar.
• Naoko Hara & Shotaro Yamane, 2013, "New Monthly Estimation Approach for Nowcasting GDP Growth: The Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, number 13-E-14, Oct.
• Hyun Hak Kim, 2013, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Dimension Reduction Methods: The Case of Korea," Working Papers, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, number 2013-26, Dec.
• M. Mayer & R. Patuelli, 2013, "Spatial Panel Data Forecasting over Different Horizons, Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions," Working Papers, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna, number wp899, Aug.
• Ergun Ermis oglu & Yasin Akcelik & Arif Oduncu, 2013, "Nowcasting GDP growth with credit data: Evidence from an emerging market economy," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, volume 13, issue 4, pages 93-98, December.
• Mafusire Albert & Brixiova Zuzana, 2013, "Macroeconomic Shock Synchronization in the East African Community," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, volume 13, issue 2, pages 261-280, July, DOI: 10.1515/gej-2013-0015.
• Laurini Márcio Poletti, 2013, "A Hybrid Data Cloning Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 5, issue 2, pages 193-229, May, DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2012-0025.
• Bao Yong & Zhang Ru, 2013, "Estimation Bias and Feasible Conditional Forecasts from the First-Order Moving Average Model," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 6, issue 1, pages 63-80, July, DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2013-0015.
• Mohaddes Kamiar & Raissi Mehdi, 2013, "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, volume 9, issue 2, pages 99-131, August, DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2012-0011.
• Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013, "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 17, issue 1, pages 1-20, February, DOI: 10.1515/snde-2012-0045.
• João Frois Caldeira & Gulherme Valle Moura, 2013, "Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, volume 11, issue 1, pages 49-80.
• Ito, Ryoko, 2013, "Modeling Dynamic Diurnal Patterns in High-Frequency Financial Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 1315, Jun.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2013, "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 13/08, Feb.
• Chia-Lin Chang & David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2013, "Risk Modeling and Management: An Overview," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 13/22, Jun.
• Piergiorgio Alessandri & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013, "Financial conditions and density forecasts for US Output and inflation," Joint Research Papers, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 4, May.
• Adama BAH, 2013, "Estimating Vulnerability to Poverty using Panel data: Evidence from Indonesia," Working Papers, CERDI, number 201325.
• Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2013, "Mobility in an enlarging European Union: Projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia," Discussion Papers, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI), number 18, Oct.
• Teresa Buchen & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013, "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 4148.
• Michael Melvin & John Prins & Duncan Shand, 2013, "Forecasting Exchange Rates: An Investor Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 4238.
• Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2013, "Credit Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 4281.
• Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013, "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 4287.
• Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013, "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, volume 66, issue 01, pages 25-32, January.
• Tim Oliver Berg & Steffen Henzel, 2013, "Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Many Predictors: Are Large BVARs Really Superior?," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 155.
• Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013, "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 171.
• Michel Fuksa & Didier Sornette, 2013, "The Sentiment of the Fed," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 13-01, Jan.
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• Marc S. Paolella & Pawel Polak, 2013, "COMFORT: A Common Market Factor Non-Gaussian Returns Model," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 13-38, Jul, revised Sep 2014.
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• Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2013, "Apparent Criticality and Calibration Issues in the Hawkes Self-Excited Point Process Model: Application to High-Frequency Financial Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 13-60, Dec.
• Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Maria Priscila Ramos, 2013, "MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy," Working Papers, CEPII research center, number 2013-39, Dec.
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• John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2013, "Nowcasting GDP: Electronic Payments, Data Vintages and the Timing of Data Releases," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2013s-25, Aug.
• Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Samad Sarferaz & Simon van Norden & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2013, "Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2013s-44, Nov.
• Jan Bruha & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner, 2013, "Incorporating Judgments and Dealing with Data Uncertainty in Forecasting at the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2013/02, Oct.
• Marek Rusnak, 2013, "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2013/06, Jul.
• Orlando Alberto Camacho Reina, 2013, "Selecci√≥n Estrat√©gica de Activos bajo No-normalidad: An√°lisis del Rendimiento de un Portafolio de Inversi√≥n," Documentos CEDE, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, number 11891, Sep.
• Mateo Clavijo, 2013, "Desaceleración económica e inflación de activos financieros en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
• Paulo Mauricio S�nchez Beltr�n & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2013, "Combinaci�n de brechas del producto colombiano," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 10973, Jul.
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• Miguel SARMIENTOO & Andr�s CEPEDA & Hernando MUTIS & Juan F. P�REZ, 2013, "Nueva Evidencia sobre la Eficiencia de la Banca," Archivos de Economía, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, number 10705, Mar.
• Edgar Vicente MARCILLO YÉPEZ, 2013, "Un indicador Líder para la actividad económica de Colombia," Archivos de Economía, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, number 11205, Oct.
• Jairo Andrés Correa & John J. García, 2013, "Interconexión eléctrica Colombia-Panamá: impacto sobre el precio spot en Panamá," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público, Universidad EAFIT, number 10670, Feb.
• Martha Delgado & Leonardo Villar & Jonathan Malag�n, 2013, "Elaboración de proyecciones de mediano plazo de actividad económica regional 2013 – 2017," Informes de Investigación, Fedesarrollo, number 12156, Dec.
• Julio César Alonso & Andr�s Mauricio Arcila, 2013, "Empleo del comportamiento estacional para mejorar el pronóstico de un commodity: el caso del mercado internacional del azúcar," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi.
• Ivonne Caridad Perez Correa & Juan Miguel Martinez Buendia, 2013, "Desagregación multivariada del PIB sectorial del departamento de Bolívar," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, volume 7, issue 1, pages 139-167.
• BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian M. & PIERRET, Diane, 2013, "Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures," LIDAM Reprints CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2526, Jan.
• WANG, Cindy Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2013, "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," LIDAM Reprints CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2574, Jan.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013, "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9312, Jan.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Ferrara, Laurent & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013, "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9313, Jan.
• Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Andreasen, Martin M., 2013, "The Pruned State-Space System for Non-Linear DSGE Models: Theory and Empirical Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9442, Apr.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2013, "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9569, Jul.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2013, "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9572, Jul.
• Rossi, Barbara & Gürkaynak, Refet & KısacıkoÄŸlu, Burçin, 2013, "Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9576, Jul.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2013, "Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9768, Dec.
• Dimitra Michala & Theoharry Grammatikos & Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2013, "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," LSF Research Working Paper Series, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg, number 13-2.
• Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013, "The Properties of ATMs Development Stages - an Empirical Analysis," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), volume 14, issue 3, pages 443-466, September.
• Anderson, Kym & Wittwer, Glyn, 2013, "Modeling Global Wine Markets to 2018: Exchange Rates, Taste Changes, and China's Import Growth," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, volume 8, issue 2, pages 131-158, November.
• Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013, "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus, number 2013-2, Aug.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013, "Wohnimmobilien in Großstädten: Kaufpreise steigen auch 2014 schneller als Mieten," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 80, issue 49, pages 23-31.
• Benjamin Beckers & Helmut Herwartz & Moritz Seidel, 2013, "Forecasting the Risk of Speculative Assets by Means of Copula Distributions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 1282.
• Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2013, "A Noncausal Autoregressive Model with Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to U.S. Inflation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 1285.