Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2010

• Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010, "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 10/2010.
• Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010, "A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), number 6/2010.
• Schlüter, Stephan & Deuschle, Carola, 2010, "Using wavelets for time series forecasting: Does it pay off?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, number 04/2010.
• Hofer, Helmut & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstrass, Klaus, 2010, "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 177.
• Döhrn, Roland & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2010, "Information or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 201.
• Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010, "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on internet search query data," Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen, number 208.
• Schaumburg, Julia, 2010, "Predicting extreme VaR: Nonparametric quantile regression with refinements from extreme value theory," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2010-009.
• Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad, 2010, "Crisis? What crisis? Currency vs. banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2010-014.
• Ritter, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010, "Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk, number 2010-043.
• Clostermann, Jörg & Keis, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz, 2010, "Short-term oil models before and during the financial market crisis," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI), number 18.
• Manner, Hans & Reznikova, Olga, 2010, "Forecasting international stock market correlations: does anything beat a CCC?," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics, number 7/10.
• Klaus Grobys, 2010, "Correlation versus Cointegration: Do Cointegration based - Index-Tracking Portfolios perform better? Evidence from the Swedish Stock-Market," Zeitschrift für Nachwuchswissenschaftler - German Journal for Young Researchers, Zeitschrift für Nachwuchswissenschaftler - German Journal for Young Researchers, volume 2, issue 1, pages 72-78, May.
• Andreas Beerli, 2010, "The evolution of durable goods demand during china's transition. An empirical analysis of household survey data from 1989 to 2006," IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich, number 494, Jun.
• Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010, "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-01, Jan.
• Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010, "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-21, May.
• Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010, "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-34, Feb.
• Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov, 2010, "The Role of Dynamic Specification in Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Jumps and Noisy High-Frequency Data," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-39, Aug.
• Rasmus Tangsgaard Varneskov & Valeri Voev, 2010, "The Role of Realized Ex-post Covariance Measures and Dynamic Model Choice on the Quality of Covariance Forecasts," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-45, Aug.
• Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010, "A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-58, Sep.
• Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2010, "The Model Confidence Set," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2010-76, Mar.
• Hyeongwoo Kim & Nazif Durmaz, 2010, "Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University, number auwp2010-02, May.
• Shu-Ling Chen & John D. Jackson & Hyeongwoo Kim & Pramesti Resiandini, 2010, "What Drives Commodity Prices?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Auburn University, number auwp2010-05, Oct.
• Yin Liao & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010, "Do Jumps Matter? Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility Allowing for Common Jumps," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, number 2010-520, May.
• Maximillian Auffhammer & Ralf Steinhauser, 2010, "Forecasting the Path of USS CO2 Emissions Using State-Level Information," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, number 2010-526, Aug.
• Giani Grădinaru, 2010, "Environmental Quality, Stimulating Factor Consumption in the XXI Century," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, volume 12, issue 28, pages 444-453, June.
• Marinda Pretorius & Ilsé Botha, 2010, "Direct Versus Indirect Forecasting of the Defined Real Exchange Rate of South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, volume 12, issue 2, pages 50-71.
• Ahmed KSAIER & Isabelle CRISTIANI-D’ORNANO, 2010, "Interdependence And Forecasting Of S&P500, Oil, Euro / Dollar And 10-Year U.S. Interest Rate Markets: An Attempt Of Modelling Through The Volatility," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 6, pages 145-166, December.
• Assoc. Prof. Ph.D Vesna Bucevska, 2010, "Assessing The Future Migration Potential Of The Eu Candidate Countries," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, volume 1, issue 14, pages 131-142, April.
• Hafner, C. & Preminger, A., 2010, "Deciding between GARCH and Stochastic Volatility via Strong Decision Rules," LIDAM Reprints ISBA, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA), number 2010032, Jan.
• Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Guilherme V. Moura & Marcelo S. Portugal, 2010, "Efficient Yield Curve Estimation and Forecasting in Brazil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], volume 11, issue 1, pages 27-51.
• Milton Biage & Newton Carneiro Affonso da Costa Jr. & Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza & Marco Antônio de Oliveira Vieira Goulart, 2010, "O Efeito Dia de Vencimento no Mercado de Opções da Bovespa Revisitado," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], volume 11, issue 1, pages 53-96.
• Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010, "Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets," Papers, arXiv.org, number 1003.5926, Mar, revised Mar 2011.
• Rosenow, Bernd & Weissbach, Rafael, 2010, "Modelling correlations in credit portfolio risk," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, volume 3, issue 1, pages 16-30, January.
• Marilena Mironiuc & Mihaela-Alina Robu & Ioan-Bogdan Robu, 2010, "The Discriminant Analysis: an Exploratory Study Concerning the Degree of Financial Autonomy of Companies in the Context of the Romanian Business Environment," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
• Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009, "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, number 0909, Oct.
• Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009, "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, number 0910, Oct.
• Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2009, "The Relationship Between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, number 0914, Nov.
• Nikita Perevalov & Philipp Maier, 2010, "On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 10-10, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2010-10.
• Maral Kichian & Rumler Fabio & Paul Corrigan, 2010, "Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 10-34, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2010-34.
• Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010, "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 10-37, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2010-37.
• George Athanasopoulos & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & Farshid Vahid, 2010, "Model selection, Estimation and Forecasting in VAR Models with Short-run and Long-run Restrictions," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department, number 205, Apr.
• David de Antonio Liedo & Elena Fernández Muñoz, 2010, "Nowcasting Spanish GDP growth in real time: "One and a half months earlier"," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 1037, Dec.
• Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010, "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 750, Mar.
• Claudia Miani & Stefano Siviero, 2010, "A non-parametric model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 758, Apr.
• Libero Monteforte & Gianluca Moretti, 2010, "Real time forecasts of inflation: the role of financial variables," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 767, Jul.
• Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Massimiliano Pisani, 2010, "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 770, Jul.
• Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2010, "Forecasting Inflation in Mexico Using Factor Models: Do Disaggregated CPI Data Improve Forecast Accuracy?," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2010-01, Mar.
• Aiolfi Marco & Capistrán Carlos & Timmermann Allan, 2010, "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2010-04, May.
• López Moctezuma Gabriel & Capistrán Carlos, 2010, "Forecast Revisions of Mexican Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2010-11, Oct.
• Benavides Guillermo, 2010, "Forecasting Short-Run Inflation Volatility using Futures Prices: An Empirical Analysis from a Value at Risk Perspective," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2010-12, Oct.
• Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Idier., 2010, "Central bank liquidity and market liquidity: the role of collateral provision on the French government debt securities market," Working papers, Banque de France, number 278.
• Emre Soyer, 2015, "Econometrics and Decision Making: Effects of Presentation Mode," Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics, number 426, Sep.
• Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010, "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, volume 41, issue 2 (Fall), pages 209-259.
• Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010, "Interest rate pass-through in the major European economies - the role of expectations," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, number 10-07, Feb.
• Wei Chen & J L Ford, 2010, "Volatility and the Hedging Effectiveness of China Fuel Oil Futures," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, number 10-15, Apr.
• Fernanda Cuitiño & Elena Ganón & Ina Tiscordio & Leonardo Vicente, 2010, "Modelos univariados de series de tiempo para predecir la inflación de corto plazo," Documentos de trabajo, Banco Central del Uruguay, number 2010008, Aug.
• Sarantis Tsiaplias & Chew Lian Chua, 2010, "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic Variables Using A Large Dataset," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, volume 49, issue 1, pages 44-59, March, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2010.00386.x.
• Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010, "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/02, Mar.
• Ida Wolden Bache & Leif Brubakk & Junior Maih, 2010, "Simple rules versus optimal policy: what fits?," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/03, Apr.
• Hilde Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Christie Smith & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2010, "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/06, May.
• Junior Maih, 2010, "Conditional forecasts in DSGE models," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/07, Apr.
• Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2010, "Oil and US GDP: A real-time out-of-sample examination," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/18, Sep.
• Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010, "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2010/29, Dec.
• Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stelios Panagiotou, 2010, "Determinants of the receipts from shipping services: the case of Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 34, pages 41-55, September.
• Tanya Suhoy, 2010, "Monthly Assessments of Private Consumption," Bank of Israel Working Papers, Bank of Israel, number 2010.09, Aug.
• Yun-Yeong Kim, 2010, "Autonomous Stability Mechanism of Won/Dollar Foreign Exchange Rate through Lagged Own Volatility (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 16, issue 4, pages 51-87, December.
• Laurent Ferrara, 2010, "Les variables financières sont-elles utiles pour anticiper la croissance économique ?. Quelques évidences économétriques," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, volume 61, issue 3, pages 645-655.
• D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2010, "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 5/RT/10, Apr.
• Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol & Christine Lim & Michael McAleer & Aree Wiboonpongse, 2010, "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/05, Mar.
• Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2010, "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Review of Some Recent Developments," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/09, Mar.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/12, Apr.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/16, Apr.
• Manuabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2010, "Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/21, May.
• Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/34, May.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Combining Non-Replicable Forecasts," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/35, May.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2010, "Great Expectatrics: Great Papers, Great Journals, Great Econometrics," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/36, May.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Sung-Po Chen & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Globalization and Knowledge Spillover: International Direct Investment, Exports and Patents," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/54, Aug.
• Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/55, Sep.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010, "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/63, Oct.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Evaluating Combined Non-Replicable Forecasts," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 10/74, Dec.
• Ugo Colombino, 2010, "Equilibrium policy simulations with random utility models of labour supply," Carlo Alberto Notebooks, Collegio Carlo Alberto, number 156.
• Pooyan Amir Ahmadi & Albrecht Ritschl, 2010, "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp0967, Jan.
• Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Salferaz, 2010, "Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp0977, May.
• Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010, "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number 0052, Aug.
• Coenraad N. Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2010, "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3027.
• Kai Carstensen & Klaus Wohlrabe & Christina Ziegler, 2010, "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3158.
• Gerit Vogt, 2010, "Zur Güte der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, volume 17, issue 01, pages .28-32, February.
• Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Arent & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Beate Schirwitz & Johannes Steinbrecher & Gerit Vogt & Björn Ziegenbalg, 2010, "Methodenexpertise zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der internationalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise auf die Wirtschaft im Land Brandenburg : Gutachten im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Wirtschaft des Landes," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53, February.
• Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010, "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 10-28, Jun.
• Alena AUDZEYEVA & Barbara SUMMERS & Klaus Reiner SCHENK-HOPPE, 2010, "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 10-46, Nov.
• Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010, "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2010/12, Dec.
• Nancy Milena Hoyos Gomez & Johanna Ramos & Lorena Vivas, 2010, "Un modelo SETAR para el PIB colombiano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Eliana Gonz�lez, 2010, "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7013, May.
• Eliana Gonz�lez, 2010, "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7014, May.
• Eliana Gonz�lez, 2010, "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7015, May.
• Juan Camilo Ochoa P. & Wilinton Galeano M. & Luis Gabriel Agudelo V., 2010, "Construcción de un modelo de scoring para el otorgamiento de crédito en una entidad financiera," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
• Jaime Enrique Arrieta Bechara & Juan Camilo Torres Cruz & Hermilson Vel�squez Ceballos, 2010, "Predicciones de modelos econométricos y redes neuronales: el caso de la acción de SURAMINV," Revista Semestre Económico, Universidad de Medellín.
• Amaury Jiménez Martínez & Brigitte Ballestas Lopez & Andrés Hernández Pontón, 2010, "Balance Y Perspectivas Del Impacto Económico Del Turismo De Cruceros En La Ciudad De Cartagena De Indias En El Periodo 1998-2008," Revista Jornadas de Investigación, Universidad de Cartagena.
• LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K. & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2010, "On the forecasting accuracy of multivariate GARCH models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2010025, May.
• Pesenti, Paolo & Groen, Jan J. J., 2010, "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7689, Feb.
• Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie & Tamoni, Andrea, 2010, "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7734, Mar.
• Garratt, Anthony & Vahey, Shaun & Mitchell, James, 2010, "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7742, Mar.
• Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Onorante, Luca & Momferatou, Daphne, 2010, "Short-Term Inflation Projections: a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7746, Mar.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2010, "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7796, Apr.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Knüppel, Malte & Jordà , Ã’scar, 2010, "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7797, Apr.
• Teulings, Coen & Zubanov, Nick, 2010, "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7800, May.
• Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2010, "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7870, Jun.
• Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010, "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7877, Jun.
• Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2010, "Nowcasting," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7883, Jun.
• Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010, "Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7895, Jun.
• Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2010, "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7986, Sep.
• Gürkaynak, Refet & Edge, Rochelle, 2010, "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8158, Dec.
• Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2010, "Negative Volatility Spillovers In The Unrestricted Eccc-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, volume 26, issue 3, pages 838-862, June.
• Marina Theodosiou, 2010, "Forecasting Issues: Ideas of Decomposition and Combination," Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus, number 2010-4, Jun.
• Antonis A. Michis, 2010, "Denoised Least Squares Forecasting of GDP Changes Using Indexes of Consumer and Business Sentiment," Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus, number 2010-9, Oct.
• Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010, "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 970.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Maximilian Podstawski & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010, "Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption?: A Real-Time Evidence for the US," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 997.
• Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Amine Lahiani & Khuong Nguyen Duc, 2010, "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Working Papers, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam, number 87.
• Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010, "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 10-07.
• Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010, "Has Models' Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed over Time, and When?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 10-16.
• Alastair Hall & Atsushi Inoue & James M. Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2010, "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 10-28.
• Barbara Rossi & Raffaella Giacomini, 2010, "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 10-29.
• Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010, "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 10-56.
• Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010, "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2010-011, Mar.
• Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010, "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2010-021.
• Roxana Halbleib & Valerie Voev, 2010, "Forecasting Multivariate Volatility Using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2010-041, Dec.
• Geoff Kenny, 2010, "Macroeconomic forecasting: can forecast combination help?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, volume 11, pages 9-12.
• Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Onorante, Luca & Paesani, Paolo, 2010, "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 1229, Jul.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010, "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2010-113.
• Audrino, Francesco & Corsi, Fulvio, 2010, "Modeling tick-by-tick realized correlations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 54, issue 11, pages 2372-2382, November.
• Cipollini, Fabrizio & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2010, "Automated variable selection in vector multiplicative error models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 54, issue 11, pages 2470-2486, November.
• He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010, "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 54, issue 11, pages 2628-2640, November.
• Tesfaselassie, M.F. & Schaling, E., 2010, "Managing disinflation under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 12, pages 2568-2577, December.
• Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2010, "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 9, pages 1596-1609, September.
• Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2010, "An Empirical Analysis of Real Activity and Stock Returns in an Emerging Market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, volume 40, issue 2, pages 263-271, September.
• Matheson, Troy D., 2010, "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 1, pages 304-314, January.
• Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Cinca, Alfonso Novales, 2010, "State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 5, pages 1043-1053, September.
• Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2010, "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with time series models to forecast inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 21, issue 2, pages 126-144, August.
• Karamé, F., 2010, "Impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: A step further," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 106, issue 3, pages 162-165, March.
• Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010, "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 108, issue 1, pages 28-32, July.
• Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010, "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 154, issue 1, pages 42-58, January.
• Conrad, Christian, 2010, "Non-negativity conditions for the hyperbolic GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 157, issue 2, pages 441-457, August.
• Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2010, "Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 158, issue 1, pages 25-36, September.
• Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010, "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 159, issue 2, pages 276-288, December.
• Clements, Michael P., 2010, "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 54, issue 4, pages 536-549, May.
• Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010, "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 17, issue 3, pages 345-361, June.

2009

• Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009, "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2009-03, Jan.
• Anders Bredahl Kock, 2009, "Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2009-18, May.
• Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009, "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2009-53, Nov.
• Valeri Voev, 2009, "On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts," CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, number 2009-56, Nov.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, volume 55, issue 4, pages 269-294.
• Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., , "World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 49490, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49490.
• Bastianin, Andrea, 2009, "Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An Application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector," Sustainable Development Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), number 50452, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.50452.
• Vermeulen, Hester & Ndibongo Traub, Lulama & Meyer, Ferdinand H., 2009, "Impact Analysis Of Food Policy Response On Household Food Security: The Case Of South Africa’S Maize Subsector," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China, International Association of Agricultural Economists, number 51396, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.51396.
• McKenzie, Andrew M. & Goodwin, Harold L., Jr. & Carreira, Rita I., 2009, "Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, volume 41, issue 01, pages 1-14, April, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.48750.
• Ramirez, Octavio A., 2009, "The Asymmetric Cycling of U.S. Soybeans and Brazilian Coffee Prices: An Opportunity for Improved Forecasting and Understanding of Price Behavior," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, volume 41, issue 01, pages 1-14, April, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.48760.
• De Gooijer, J. & Diks, C.G.H. & Gatarek, L., 2009, "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," CeNDEF Working Papers, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance, number 09-13.
• Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2009, "Predicting Securitized Real Estate Returns: Financial and Real Estate Factors vs. Economic Variables," ERES, European Real Estate Society (ERES), number eres2009_265, Jan.
• Conrad, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013, "Measuring Persistence in Volatility Spillovers," Working Papers, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, number 0543, Apr.
• Maria Debora Braga, 2009, "Hedge fund and market risk: new concepts and models, beyond VaR," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, volume 9, pages 76-87, September.
• Mercedes Ayuso(universitat de Barcelona) & Miguel Santolino(Universitat de Barcelona), 2009, "Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities," Working Papers in Economics, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia, number 220.
• Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2009, "Selection of Optimal Lag Length in Cointegrated VAR Models with Weak Form of Common Cyclical Features," Fucape Working Papers, Fucape Business School, number 16, Aug.
• Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009, "Structural Multi-Equation Macroeconomic Models: Identification-Robust Estimation and Fit," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 09-19, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2009-19.
• Zhongfang He & John M. Maheu, 2009, "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada, number 09-31, DOI: 10.34989/swp-2009-31.
• Coral García & Esther Gordo & Jaime Martínez-Martín & Patrocinio Tello, 2009, "Modelling export and import demand functions: the Spanish case," Occasional Papers, Banco de España, number 0905, Dec.
• Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009, "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 0906, Apr.
• Teresa Leal & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009, "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish Government balance with mixed-frequencies models," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 0931, Dec.
• Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez, 2009, "Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 0934, Dec.
• Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009, "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers, Banco de España, number 0935, Dec.
• Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009, "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area, number 723, Sep.
• Benavides Guillermo & Capistrán Carlos, 2009, "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility: The Superior Performance of Conditional Combinations of Time Series and Option Implied Forecasts," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2009-01, Jan.
• Rangel José Gonzalo & Engle Robert F., 2009, "The Factor-Spline-GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2009-03, Feb.
• Capistrán Carlos & Constandse Christian & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009, "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2009-05, Jul.
• Sidaoui José Julián & Capistrán Carlos & Chiquiar Daniel & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009, "A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers, Banco de México, number 2009-14, Nov.
• Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009, "Nonparametric Retrospection and Monitoring of Predictability of Financial Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, issue 2, pages 149-160.
• Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009, "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, issue 4, pages 428-440.
• Corradi, Valentina & Fernandez, Andres & Swanson, Norman R., 2009, "Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, issue 4, pages 455-467.
• Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009, "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, issue 4, pages 468-479.
• Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009, "Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, issue 4, pages 480-491.
• Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009, "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, volume 27, pages 95-112.
• Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darn & Laurent Ferrara, 2009, "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers, Banque de France, number 232.
• Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Bardos, M. & Caroline Jardet & Kendaoui, L. & Moquet , J., 2009, "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model: Application to the French manufacturing sector," Working papers, Banque de France, number 238.
• Bell go, C. & Laurent Ferrara, 2009, "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers, Banque de France, number 259.
• Claire C l rier, 2009, "Forecasting inflation in France," Working papers, Banque de France, number 262.
• Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2009, "Fiscal Readjustments In The United States: A Nonlinear Time‐Series Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, volume 47, issue 1, pages 34-54, January, DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00139.x.