Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2011

• Zhou, Qun & Tesfatsion, Leigh & Liu, Chen-Ching, 2011, "Short-term congestion forecasting in wholesale power markets," ISU General Staff Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics, number 201101010800001091, Jan.
• Zhou, Qun & Tesfatsion, Leigh & Liu, Chen-Ching, 2011, "Short-term congestion forecasting in wholesale power markets," ISU General Staff Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics, number 201101170800001091, Jan.
• Osamu Nakamura, 2011, "Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth of Vietnam: Theory and evidence on an econometric analysis," Working Papers, Research Institute, International University of Japan, number EMS_2011_08, Mar.
• Colombino, Ugo, 2011, "Five Issues in the Design of Income Support Mechanisms: The Case of Italy," IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), number 6059, Oct.
• Halbleib Roxana & Voev Valeri, 2011, "Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 134-152, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0109.
• Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011, "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 153-171, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0110.
• Schumacher Christian, 2011, "Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 28-49, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0104.
• Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011, "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 63-81, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0106.
• Carstensen Kai & Wohlrabe Klaus & Ziegler Christina, 2011, "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 82-106, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0107.
• Döhrn Roland & Schmidt Christoph M., 2011, "Information or Institution?: On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, volume 231, issue 1, pages 9-27, February, DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-0103.
• Katja Drechsel & Laurent Maurin, 2011, "Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 3, pages 336-354, April.
• Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2011, "Forecasting private consumption: survey‐based indicators vs. Google trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 6, pages 565-578, September.
• Mauro Costantini & Robert M. Kunst, 2011, "Combining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core system," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 6, pages 579-596, September.
• Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011, "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 7, pages 622-643, November.
• António Rua, 2011, "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 7, pages 666-678, November.
• Giovanni Caggiano & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2011, "Are more data always better for factor analysis? Results for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries and the UK," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 30, issue 8, pages 736-752, December.
• Alex Huang, 2011, "Volatility Modeling by Asymmetrical Quadratic Effect with Diminishing Marginal Impact," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 37, issue 3, pages 301-330, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-011-9254-2.

2010

• Zagaglia, Paolo, 2010, "Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices: A data-rich model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 2, pages 409-417, March.
• Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010, "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 2, pages 216-230, April.
• Hoogerheide, Lennart & van Dijk, Herman K., 2010, "Bayesian forecasting of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall using adaptive importance sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 2, pages 231-247, April.
• Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2010, "Forecasting macroeconomic time series with locally adaptive signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 2, pages 312-325, April.
• Schorfheide, Frank & Sill, Keith & Kryshko, Maxym, 2010, "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 2, pages 348-373, April.
• Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010, "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 4, pages 794-807, October.
• Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010, "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 4, pages 885-907, October.
• Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010, "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 4, pages 908-926, October.
• Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2010, "Bank profitability and taxation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 11, pages 2801-2810, November.
• Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010, "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 75, issue 3, pages 426-444, September.
• Clements, Kenneth W. & Lan, Yihui, 2010, "A new approach to forecasting exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 7, pages 1424-1437, November.
• Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010, "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 1, pages 145-156, March.
• Xanthopoulos, Apostolos, 2010, "Market Value Signal Extraction and the Misapplication of SFAS 133 in the U.S. GSE's," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, volume 7, issue 2, pages 57-75, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2010.02.004.
• Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010, "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 5, pages 315-324, October.
• Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010, "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 32, issue 1, pages 98-119, January.
• Blair, Andrew R. & Mandelker, Gershon N. & Saaty, Thomas L. & Whitaker, Rozann, 2010, "Forecasting the resurgence of the U.S. economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, volume 44, issue 3, pages 114-121, September.
• Divino, Jose Angelo & McAleer, Michael, 2010, "Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru," Tourism Management, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 6, pages 846-854, DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2009.09.002.
• Agostini, Claudio A. & Brown, Philip H. & Roman, Andrei C., 2010, "Poverty and Inequality Among Ethnic Groups in Chile," World Development, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 7, pages 1036-1046, July.
• Boppana Nagarjuna & Varadi Vijay Kumar, 2010, "Heat waves or Meteor showers: Empirical evidence from the stock markets," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, volume 53, issue 2, pages 57-74.
• Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010, "Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2010-10, Apr.
• Don Harding, 2010, "Applying Shape and Phase Restrictions in Generalized Dynamic Categorical Models of the Business Cycle," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2010-25, Sep.
• Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2010, "Appreciating the Renminbi," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2010-30, Oct.
• Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010, "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2010-34, Dec.
• Guillermo Benavides, 2010, "Forecasting Short-Run Inflation Volatility using Futures Prices: An Empirical Analysis from a Value at Risk Perspective," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, volume 4, issue 2, pages 1-27.
• Ritschl, Albrecht & Salferaz, Samad, 2010, "Crisis?: What crisis?: currency vs. banking in the financial crisis of 1931," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 28726.
• Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010, "Modelling and forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 58520, Aug.
• Bentancor, Andrea & Pincheira, Pablo, 2010, "Predicción de errores de proyección de inflación en Chile," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, volume 77, issue 305, pages 129-154, enero-mar, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v77i.
• Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010, "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, volume 77, issue 306, pages 275-312, abril-jun, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v77i.
• Chaovanapoonphol, Y. & Lim, C. & McAleer, M.J. & Wiboonpongse, A., 2010, "Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-18, Mar.
• Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J. & Legerstee, R., 2010, "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecast: A Review of Some Recent Developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-19, Mar.
• Chang, C-L. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J., 2010, "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-24, Apr.
• Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2010, "Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-34, May.
• Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010, "Combining Non-Replicable Forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-44, Jul.
• Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010, "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-53, Sep.
• Chen, P-Y. & Chang, C-L. & Chen, C-C. & McAleer, M.J., 2010, "Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-56, Sep.
• McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2010, "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-59, Oct.
• Chang, C-L. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J., 2010, "Evaluating Combined Non-Replicable Forecast," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2010-74, Dec.
• Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010, "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Working Papers, Economic Research Forum, number 534, Jan, revised 07 Jan 2010.
• Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2010, "A Leading Index for the Indian Economy," Working Papers, eSocialSciences, number id:2935, Oct.
• Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2010, "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers, eSocialSciences, number id:3005, Oct.
• Jan in 't Veld & Janos Varga, 2010, "The Potential Impact of EU Cohesion Policy Spending in the 2007-13 Programming Period: A Model-Based," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, number 422, Sep.
• Frédéric Karamé, 2010, "Impulse-Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural Vector AutoRegressions: a Step Further," Documents de recherche, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne, number 10-03.
• Frédéric Karamé & Alexandra Olmedo, 2010, "Asymmetric Properties of Impulse Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural Vector AutoRegressions," Documents de recherche, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne, number 10-04.
• Adriano Pareto & Annamaria Urbano, 2010, "Stime preliminari nelle statistiche giudiziarie: un'applicazione ai procedimenti di separazione e divorzio," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, volume 2010, issue 3, pages 108-135.
• Martin Hrubý & Petr Čambala & Jan Toufar, 2010, "Game-Theoretic Modeling of Electricity Markets in Central Europe," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, volume 4, issue 1, pages 032-061, March.
• Vít Bubák, 2010, "Forecasting the Quantiles of Daily Equity Returns Using Realized Volatility: Evidence from the Czech Stock Market," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, volume 4, issue 3, pages 295-314, November.
• Boril Šopov & Jakub Seidler, 2010, "Yield Curve Dynamics: Regional Common Factor Model," Working Papers IES, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, number 2010/17, Aug, revised Aug 2010.
• Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Adam Gersl & Tomáš Slačík, 2010, "Global Financial Crisis and the Puzzling Exchange Rate Path in CEE Countries," Working Papers IES, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, number 2010/24, Sep, revised Sep 2010.
• Francesco D’Amuri & Juri Marcucci, 2010, "“Google it!”Forecasting the US Unemployment Rate with a Google Job Search index," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, number 2010.31, Mar.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2010, "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE), EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), number 704, Mar.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2010, "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE), EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), number 707, Sep.
• Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2010, "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? a long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2010-002, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2010.002.
• Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010, "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2010-008, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2010.008.
• Giovanni De Luca & Giampiero Gallo, 2010, "A Time-varying Mixing Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Econometrics Working Papers Archive, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", number wp2010_03, Apr.
• Murat, Marina & Pirotti, Tommaso, 2010, "The attractiveness of countries for FDI. A fuzzy approach," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), volume 0, issue 2, pages 43-61, November.
• Ralph D. Snyder & J. Keith Ord & Adrian Beaumont, 2010, "Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2010-003, May, revised Mar 2011.
• William D. Larson, 2010, "Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2010-004, Dec, revised Feb 2011.
• Byron Ganges, 2010, "Alternative Policies for US Economic Recovery," Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, number 2010-02, Feb.
• Peter Fuleky & Carl Bonham, 2010, "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, number 2010-17R1, Dec, revised Jul 2013.
• Byron Gangnes, 2010, "Alternative Policies for US Economic Recovery," Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics, number 201002, Feb.
• Vit Bubak, 2010, "Forecasting the Quantiles of Daily Equity Returns Using Realized Volatility: Evidence from the Czech Stock Market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number hal-00650666.
• Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00460461, Mar, DOI: 10.1002/for.1159.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00460472.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00461711, Jan.
• Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux, 2010, "Predicting chaos with Lyapunov exponents: Zero plays no role in forecasting chaotic systems," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00462454, Jan.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00505165, Jul.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL, number halshs-00511979, Dec.
• Vit Bubak, 2010, "Forecasting the Quantiles of Daily Equity Returns Using Realized Volatility: Evidence from the Czech Stock Market," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00650666.
• Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2010, "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00732675, Sep, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.06.021.
• Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2010, "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00741630, Oct, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.07.008.
• M.F. Tesfaselassie & E. Schaling, 2010, "Managing disinflation under uncertainty," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00743847, Oct, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.07.005.
• Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2010, "Heterogeneity, Learning and Information Stickiness in Inflation Expectations," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-00849412, Jul, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.012.
• Frédéric Karamé, 2010, "Impulse–response functions in Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: A step further," Post-Print, HAL, number hal-02297082, Mar, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2009.11.009.
• Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL, number halshs-00460461, Mar, DOI: 10.1002/for.1159.
• Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Amine Lahiani, 2010, "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Working Papers, HAL, number hal-00507831, Aug.
• Yves Jégourel & Samuel Maveyraud, 2010, "An assessment of variances and covariances of European SRI funds returns : does the intensity of extra-financial negative screening matter?," Working Papers, HAL, number hal-00646542, Mar.
• Jana Asher & Beth Osborne Daponte, 2010, "A Hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number HDRP-2010-40, Sep.
• Ulrich Fritsche & Ullrich Heilemann, 2010, "Too Many Cooks? The German Joint Diagnosis and Its Production," Macroeconomics and Finance Series, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, number 201001, Jan.
• Wegmann , Bertil & Villani, Mattias, 2010, "Bayesian Inference in Structural Second-Price common Value Auctions," Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), number 242, May.
• Andersson, Michael K. & Palmqvist, Stefan & Waggoner, Daniel F., 2010, "Density-Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models," Working Paper Series, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), number 247, Sep.
• Lundholm, Michael, 2010, "Sveriges Riksbank's Inflation Interval Forecasts 1999-2005," Research Papers in Economics, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, number 2010:11, Jun.
• Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Chen, Yu-Chin & Rossi, Barbara, 2010, "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics, number 29412033.
• Daisuke Nagakura & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2010, "A State Space Approach to Estimating the Integrated Variance under the Existence of Market Microstructure Noise," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, number gd09-115, Feb.
• Enache, Calcedonia, 2010, "The Utilization Of The Statistical Techniques In Projecting Gross Value Added In The Agriculture, Hunting And Forestry; Fishery And Pisciculture Sector," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, volume 7, issue 2, pages 285-291.
• Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Andrea Tamoni, 2010, "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University, number 360.
• Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2010, "Forecast Combination Based on Multiple Encompassing Tests in a Macroeconomic DSGE System," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies, number 251, May.
• Kunst, Robert M. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2010, "Asymmetric Time Aggregation and its Potential Benefits for Forecasting Annual Data," Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies, number 252, Jul.
• Pierre L. Siklos, 2010, "Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation," IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, number 10-E-26, Nov.
• Christian Proano, 2010, "Recession Forecasting with Dynamic Probit Models under Real Time Conditions," IMK Working Paper, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, number 10-2010.
• Giancarlo Lutero & Marco Marini, 2010, "Direct vs Indirect Forecasts of Foreign Trade Unit Value Indices," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), volume 12, issue 2-3, pages 73-96, October.
• Maurizio Bovi, 2010, "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Predictive Power of Econometric Models," ISAE Working Papers, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), number 125, Jan.
• Esin FIRUZAN, 2010, "Turkiye Petrol Fiyatlari Oynakliginin Modellenmesi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, volume 12, issue 1, pages 1-17, November.
• Zhou, Qun & Tesfatsion, Leigh & Liu, Chen-Ching, 2010, "Short-Term Congestion Forecasting in Wholesale Power Markets," Staff General Research Papers Archive, Iowa State University, Department of Economics, number 31700, Jul.
• Osamu Nakamura, 2010, "Perspective for the Vietnamese Economy in the Context of Asia and the Paci c: An econometric analysis with a global macro econometric model," Working Papers, Research Institute, International University of Japan, number EMS_2010_13, Nov.
• Colombino, Ugo, 2010, "Equilibrium Policy Simulations with Random Utility Models of Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), number 5262, Oct.
• Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010, "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 1, pages 71-92, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1137.
• Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010, "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 4, pages 539-573, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1159.
• Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010, "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 4, pages 574-594, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1176.
• Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010, "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 4, pages 595-620, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1177.
• Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010, "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 4, pages 635-662, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1166.
• Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010, "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 25, issue 6, pages 1028-1062, DOI: 10.1002/jae.1097.
• Helmut Hofer & Torsten Schmidt & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010, "Practice and prospects of medium-term economic forecasting," NRN working papers, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, number 2010-12, Aug.
• Cecilia Frale & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2010, "Survey data as coincident or leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 109-131, DOI: 10.1002/for.1142.
• Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010, "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 132-144, DOI: 10.1002/for.1162.
• Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010, "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small- and large-scale models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 168-185, DOI: 10.1002/for.1143.
• Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 186-199, DOI: 10.1002/for.1159.
• Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010, "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 231-250, DOI: 10.1002/for.1147.
• Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. Van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2010, "Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time-varying weights," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 251-269, DOI: 10.1002/for.1145.
• Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2010, "Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 1-2, pages 6-28, DOI: 10.1002/for.1146.
• Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010, "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 3, pages 341-352, DOI: 10.1002/for.1132.
• Arvid Raknerud & Terje Skjerpen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2010, "Forecasting key macroeconomic variables from a large number of predictors: a state space approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 29, issue 4, pages 367-387, DOI: 10.1002/for.1131.
• Chin Wen Cheong, 2010, "A Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Energy Spot Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, volume 8, issue 1, pages 105-117, January.
• Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010, "An Out-of-Sample Test for Nonlinearity in Financial Time Series: An Empirical Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 36, issue 2, pages 121-132, August, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-010-9225-z.
• T. Hendricks & B. Kempa & C. Pierdzioch, 2010, "Do local analysts have an informational advantage in forecasting stock returns? Evidence from the German DAX30," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, volume 24, issue 2, pages 137-158, June, DOI: 10.1007/s11408-010-0129-7.
• Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010, "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 16, issue 1, pages 1-10, February, DOI: 10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2.
• Simone Cuiabano & Jose Divino, 2010, "Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of a Monetary Model for Brazil," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 16, issue 4, pages 345-357, November, DOI: 10.1007/s11294-010-9276-x.
• Christian Lutz, 2010, "How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, volume 7, issue 2, pages 343-356, August, DOI: 10.1007/s10368-010-0160-1.
• Ana Angulo & F. Trívez, 2010, "The impact of spatial elements on the forecasting of Spanish labour series," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, volume 12, issue 2, pages 155-174, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10109-010-0118-4.
• Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2010, "Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, volume 41, issue 2, pages 170-192, August, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-008-9162-y.
• George Karathanassis & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2010, "Spill over effects of futures contracts initiation on the cash market: a regime shift approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 34, issue 1, pages 95-143, January, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-009-0149-4.
• Arie Harel & Giora Harpaz & Joseph Yagil, 2010, "A new paradigm for forecasting security returns in a market regulated by price limits," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 35, issue 1, pages 113-121, July, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-009-0138-7.
• Ralf Brüggemann & Jana Riedel, 2010, "Nonlinear Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the UK," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2010-15, Dec.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010, "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 10-249, Jan, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005975789.
• Konstantin Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010, "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 10-251, Jan, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005975867.
• Konstantin Kholodilin & Maximilian Podstawski & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010, "Do Google Searches Help in Nowcasting Private Consumption?," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 10-256, Apr, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-006070977.
• Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2010, "A monetáris restrikció hatása strukturális VAR keretben
  [The effect of monetary restriction in a vector auto-regression framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 5, pages 412-430.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2010, "Great Expectatrics: Great Papers, Great Journals, Great Econometrics," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 714, Aug.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 720, Aug.
• Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 722, Sep.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-à ngel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2010, "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 727, Oct.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Evaluating Combined Non-Replicable Forecasts," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 744, Dec.
• Yves Jegourel & Samuel Maveyraud, 2010, "An assessment of variances and covariances of European SRI funds returns : does the intensity of extra-financial negative screening matter?," Larefi Working Papers, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4, number 201007, Nov.
• Yves Jégourel & Samuel Maveyraud, 2010, "An assessment of variances and covariances of European SRI funds returns : does the intensity of extra-financial negative screening matter?," Larefi Working Papers, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4, number 1007, Mar.
• R Naraidoo & I Paya, 2010, "Forecasting Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa," Working Papers, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department, number 611194.
• Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010, "Decision-Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability," Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, number 10/09, Mar.
• Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010, "Economic Value of Stock and Interest Rate Predictability in the UK," Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, number 10/13, Apr.
• Mohamed AROURI & Amine LAHIANI & D.-K. NGUYEN, 2010, "Forecasting the Conditional Volatility of Oil Spot andFutures Prices with Structural Breaksand Long Memory Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans, number 661.
• Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Arnelyn Abdon, 2010, "Using Capabilities to Project Growth, 2010-30," Economics Working Paper Archive, Levy Economics Institute, number wp_609, Aug.
• Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010, "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), volume 7, issue 1, pages 203-227, June.
• Muhammad Zakaria & Shujat Ali, 2010, "Fiscal Marksmanship in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, volume 15, issue 2, pages 113-133, Jul-Dec.
• Buchen, Teresa & Carstensen, Kai & Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2010, "Was kostet die Krise? Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010 - 2014," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 11438, Mar.
• Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2010, "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 11442, Mar.
• Buchen, Teresa & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2010, "Forecasting with many predictors - Is boosting a viable alternative?," Discussion Papers in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 11788, Sep.
• Don Harding, 2010, "Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle," Working Papers, School of Economics, La Trobe University, number 2010.05, Jul.
• Alberto Bagnai, 2010, "CEEC vs. PIGS: a comparative panel assessment of financial sustainability and twin deficits," Working Papers LuissLab, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, number 1088.
• Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2010, "On the Forecasting Accuracy of Multivariate GARCH Models," Cahiers de recherche, CIRPEE, number 1021.
• Branimir Jovanovic & Magdalena Petrovska, 2010, "Forecasting Macedonian GDP: Evaluation of different models for short-term forecasting," Working Papers, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, number 2010-02, Aug, revised Aug 2010.
• Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Robert O'Neill, 2010, "A Kernel Technique for Forecasting the Variance-Covariance Matrix," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester, number 151.
• Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010, "An out-of-sample test for nonlinearity in financial time series: An empirical application," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, number 2010_08, Jun, revised Jun 2010.
• Marina Murat & Tommaso Pirotti, 2010, "The Attractiveness of Countries for FDI. A Fuzzy Approach," Department of Economics, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi", number 0640, Dec.
• Marina Murat & Tommaso Pirotti, 2010, "The attractiveness of countries for FDI. A fuzzy approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent), University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi", number 055, Nov.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 10013, Jan.
• Dominique Guegan & Justin Leroux, 2010, "Predicting chaos with Lyapunov exponents: zero plays no role in forecasting chaotic systems," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 10019, Jan.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010, "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 10065, Jul.
• George Athanasopoulos & Ashton de Silva, 2010, "Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia and New Zealand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 11/09, Feb.
• Alysha M De Livera, 2010, "Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 10/10, Apr.
• Yin Liao & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010, "Do Jumps Matter? Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility allowing for Common Jumps," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 11/10, May.
• Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010, "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 14/10, May.
• Shu Fan & Rob Hyndman, 2010, "Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 17/10, Aug.
• Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes & Simone Grose, 2010, "Probabilistic Forecasts of Volatility and its Risk Premia," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 22/10, Dec.
• Alejandro Gaviria & Carlos Medina & Leonardo Morales & Jairo Núñez, 2010, "The Cost of Avoiding Crime: The Case of Bogotá," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America".
• Jan J. J. Groen & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2010, "Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 15743, Feb.
• Charles F. Manski, 2010, "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 16207, Jul.
• Joshua Angrist & Ivan Fernandez-Val, 2010, "ExtrapoLATE-ing: External Validity and Overidentification in the LATE Framework," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 16566, Dec.
• Mirko Djukic & Jelena Momcilovic & Ljubica Trajcev, 2010, "Medium-term projection model of the National Bank of Serbia," Working papers, National Bank of Serbia, number 17, Dec.
• C. Minodier, 2010, "First results series or last available series: which series to use? A real-time illustration for the forecasting of French quarterly GDP growth," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2010-01.