Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2012

• C. Marbot & D. Roy, 2012, "Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2012-10.
• D. Blanchet & S. Le Minez, 2012, "Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2012-14.
• Bogdan OANCEA & Tudorel ANDREI & Raluca DRAGOESCU, 2012, "Cuda Based Computational Methods For Macroeconomic Forecasts," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 1, issue 1, pages 42-53, January.
• Arnaud Doucet & Neil Shephard, 2012, "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, number 2012-W05, Jun.
• Ekaterina Tosheva, 2012, "Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in Bulgaria for the Period 1999 - 2011," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 68-78, April.
• Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012, "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Discussion Papers, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics, number 12-04.
• Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008, "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2008/13, Aug.
• Thomas Laurent & Tomasz Koźluk, 2012, "Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 978, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en.
• Elena Rusticelli, 2012, "Non-Parametric Stochastic Simulations to Investigate Uncertainty around the OECD Indicator Model Forecasts," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 979, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5k94kq50b2jd-en.
• Stéphane Sorbe, 2012, "Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 984, Sep, DOI: 10.1787/5k92smzp0b6h-en.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2013, "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 67-89, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k49pkpbf76j.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012, "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 21-31, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k92n2pwccwb.
• Gagea Mariana, 2012, "The Contribution Of Business Confidence Indicators In Short-Term Forecasting Of Economic Development," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, volume 1, issue 1, pages 617-623, July.
• Dale W. R. Rosenthal, 2012, "Modeling Trade Direction," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 10, issue 2, pages 390-415, 2012 04.
• Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2012, "Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 10, issue 4, pages 591-616, September.
• Slãvescu Ecaterina Oana & Panait Iulian, 2012, "Improving Customer Churn Models as one of Customer Relationship Management Business Solutions for the Telecommunication Industry," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 1, pages 1156-1160, May.
• ILIE Margareta & ILIE Constantin & ANTOHI Ionut, 2012, "Simulating the Evolution of Romanian's Pupils and Students Considering the Country's Economic Activity," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 1, pages 996-1001, May.
• Ene Sebastian & Chilarez Danut, 2012, "The Impact of Open Market Variables on FDI. Case of Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 1126-1130, Decembre.
• Ciobanu Dumitru & Bar Mary Violeta, 2012, "A Comparison Between Two Predictive Models of Artificial Intelligence," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 362-367, Decembre.
• Bratu (Simionescu) Mihaela, 2012, "Macroeconomic Forecasts Comparisons in Romania During the Crisis Using New Methods of Assessing the Predictions Accuracy," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 3, pages 1-24, Decembre.
• Ilie Constantin & Ilie Margareta & Topalu Ana-Maria, 2012, "Using Artificial Neural Network to predict the NASDAQ evolution," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 3, pages 1-32, Decembre.
• Neil Shephard & Arnaud Doucet, 2012, "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 606, Jun.
• Francis X. Diebold, 2012, "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 12-035, Sep.
• Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012, "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 12-046, Oct.
• Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012, "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 13-061, May, revised 03 Sep 2013.
• Dumitru Ciobanu, 2012, "The Horizon of Prediction for Exchange Rate Eur-Leu," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 2, pages 85-92.
• Sándor Kovács & Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Péter Balogh, 2012, "The Long Memory Property of Hungarian Market Pig Prices: A Comparison of Three Different Methods," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 3, pages 123-138.
• Alina Hagiu, 2012, "Econometric Model Concerning The Status and Evolution of The Automotive Industry in Romania," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 3, pages 83-96.
• Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012, "The Accuracy and Bias Evaluation of the USA Unemployment Rate Forecasts. Methods to Improve the Forecasts Accuracy," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 4, pages 17-32.
• Dennis S. Mapa & Michael Daniel Lucagbo & Heavenly Joy Garcia, 2012, "The link between agricultural output and the states of poverty in the Philippines: evidence from self-rated poverty data," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, volume 49, issue 2, pages 51-74, December.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2012, "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? the case of Chilean GDP," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 35949, Jan.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2012, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno?
  [Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 35950, Jan.
• Weber, Patrick, 2012, "Timing asset market peaks: the role of the liquidity risk cycle of the banking system," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36061, Jan.
• Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012, "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36147, Jan.
• Fry, John, 2012, "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36202, Jan.
• Cayton, Peter Julian A. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2012, "Time-varying conditional Johnson SU density in value-at-risk (VaR) methodology," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36206, Jan.
• Liew, Freddy, 2012, "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36781, Jan.
• Ubilava, David & Helmers, C Gustav, 2012, "Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36890, Jan.
• Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012, "Testing for predictability in a noninvertible ARMA model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37151.
• Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012, "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37399, Mar.
• Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2012, "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37771, Mar.
• Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012, "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38885, Mar.
• Doretti, Marco, 2012, "Modelli di scoring per il rischio paese
  [Scoring models for country risk]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38898, Feb.
• Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012, "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39168, Apr.
• Gabrielsen, A. & Zagaglia, Paolo & Kirchner, A. & Liu, Z., 2012, "Forecasting Value-at-Risk with time-varying variance, skewness and kurtosis in an exponential weighted moving average framework," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39294, Jun.
• Liebermann, Joelle, 2012, "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39452.
• Czinkota, Thomas, 2012, "Zeitpunktsignale zum aktiven Portfoliomanagement
  [Time-Point-Signals for Active Portfolio Management]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39565, Jun.
• Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2012, "A tutorial note on the properties of ARIMA optimal forecasts," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40303, Jan, revised 27 Jul 2012.
• Chen, Shu-Ling & Jackson, John D. & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Resiandini, Pramesti, 2012, "What Drives Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40711, Aug.
• Mapa, Dennis S. & Lucagbo, Michael & Garcia, Heavenly Joy, 2012, "The Link between Agricultural Output and the States of Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence from Self-Rated Poverty Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40791, Aug.
• Lahvicka, Jiri, 2012, "Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40998, Sep.
• Bruno, Giancarlo, 2012, "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41312, Sep.
• Sinha, Pankaj & Sharma, Aastha & Singh, Harsh Vardhan, 2012, "Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential Election using Multiple Regression Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41486, Aug.
• Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012, "Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41624, Sep.
• Sinha, Pankaj & Singhal, Anushree & Sondhi, Kriti, 2012, "Economic scenario of United States of America before and after 2012 U.S. Presidential Election," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41886, Oct.
• Sinha, Pankaj & Thomas, Ashley Rose & Ranjan, Varun, 2012, "Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42062, Oct.
• Medel, Carlos A. & Salgado, Sergio C., 2012, "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better than AIC?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42235, Oct.
• Leitao, Joao & Armada, Manuel Rocha & Ferreira, Joaaquim, 2012, "Corruption and Co-Movements in European Listed Sport Companies: Did Calciocaos really matter?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42474, Nov.
• Guo, Xu & Lam, Kin & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2012, "A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42535, Oct.
• Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafal, 2012, "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42563, Nov.
• Mezgebo, Taddese, 2012, "The nature of volatility in temporal profit with in Ethiopian commodity exchange: The case of washed export coffee modelled using ARFIMA-M-HYGARCH model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 43345, Feb.
• Albers, Scott, 2012, "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 43484, Dec.
• Slavescu, Ecaterina & Panait, Iulian, 2012, "Improving customer churn models as one of customer relationship management business solutions for the telecommunication industry," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 44250.
• du Jardin, Philippe, 2012, "The influence of variable selection methods on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 44383, Jan.
• Leon, Jorge, 2012, "A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 44484, revised 2012.
• Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012, "Прогнозування розвитку економіки України на основі баєсівських авторегресійних (BVAR) моделей з різними priors
  [Forecasting Economic Development of Ukraine based on BVAR models with different prior," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 44725, Jan, revised Nov 2012.
• Lúcio Godeiro, Lucas, 2012, "Estimando o VaR (Value-at-Risk) de carteiras via modelos da família GARCH e via Simulação de Monte Carlo
  [Estimating the VaR (Value-at-Risk) of portfolios via GARCH family models and via Monte Carl," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 45146, Jun.
• Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2012, "Do Dynamic Neural Networks Stand a Better Chance in Fractionally Integrated Process Forecasting?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 45977, Sep.
• Doran, Justin & Fingleton, Bernard, 2012, "Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 47292, Aug.
• Rashid, Abdul & Husain, Fazal, 2012, "On the modeling of exchange rate: some evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 47547, Feb.
• Teneng, Dean, 2012, "Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 47855, Sep.
• Bławat, Bogusław, 2012, "CRI RMI - Nowy model oceny ryzyka wystąpienia trudności finansowych firm
  [CRI RMI - New Approach to Default Probability Calculation]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49121, Sep, revised Jan 2013.
• Skribans, Valerijs, 2012, "European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 49170.
• Giovanis, Eleftherios, 2012, "Study of Discrete Choice Models and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71218, Mar.
• Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012, "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201209, Mar.
• Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012, "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201229, Oct.
• Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nicholas Kilimani & Amandine Nakumuryango & Siobhan Redford, 2012, "Predicting BRICS Stock Returns Using ARFIMA Models," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201235, Dec.
• Jan G. De Gooijer & Cees G. H. Diks & Łukasz T. Gątarek, 2012, "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, volume 4, issue 1, pages 23-44, March.
• Justyna Wróblewska, 2012, "Bayesian Analysis of Weak Form Polynomial Reduced Rank Structures in VEC Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, volume 4, issue 4, pages 253-267, December.
• Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU), 2012, "The Accuracy Of Unemployment Rate Forecasts In Romania And The Actual Economic Crisis," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, volume 11, issue 2, pages 56-67.
• Tian Xie, 2012, "Least Squares Model Averaging By Prediction Criterion," Working Paper, Economics Department, Queen's University, number 1299, Nov.
• Carrera, César, 2012, "Estimating Information Rigidity using Firms’ Survey Data," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2012-004, Jan.
• Ferreyra, Jesús & Vásquez, José, 2012, "Proyección de precios de exportación utilizando tipos de cambio: Caso peruano," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2012-008, Feb.
• Barrera, Carlos, 2012, "El ciclo común y los grupos homogéneos en la inflación," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2012-010, Apr.
• Winkelried, Diego, 2012, "Predicting quarterly aggregates with monthly indicators," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2012-023, Dec.
• Carol Alexander & Daniel Ledermann, 2012, "ROM Simulation: Applications to Stress Testing and VaR," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2012-09, May.
• Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012, "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 1196.
• Raffaella Giacomini, 2012, "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," 2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 548.
• Yong Song, 2012, "Modelling Regime Switching and Structural Breaks with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 28_12, Jun.
• Nikola Gradojevic & Camillo Lento, 2012, "Multiscale Analysis of Foreign Exchange Order Flows and Technical Trading Profitability," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 31_12, Jun.
• Alexandros Gabrielsen & Paolo Zagaglia & Axel Kirchner & Zhuoshi Liu, 2012, "Forecasting Value-at-Risk with Time-Varying Variance, Skewness and Kurtosis in an Exponential Weighted Moving Average Framework," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 34_12, Jun.
• Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2012, "Estimating a Semiparametric Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model with a Dirichlet Process Mixture," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 45_12, Jun.
• Xin Jin & John M. Maheu, 2012, "Modelling Realized Covariances and Returns," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 49_12, Jun.
• Dimitris Korobilis, 2012, "Bayesian Forecasting with Highly Correlated Predictors," Working Paper series, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, number 67_12, Nov.
• Anton Semushin & Petr Parshakov, 2012, "Data frequency and mutual fund performance measures," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 25, issue 1, pages 95-114.
• Alexander Tsyplakov, 2012, "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 27, issue 3, pages 115-132.
• EImad A. Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2012, "Can exchange rate models outperform the random walk? Magnitude, direction and profitability as criteria - I modelli di tasso cambio possono battere la “random walk”? Grandezza, direzione e profittabil," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, volume 65, issue 3, pages 473-490.
• Oliver Grothe & Felix M√ºsgens, 2012, "The inÔ¨Çuence of spatial effects on wind power revenues under direct marketing rules," EWI Working Papers, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), number 2012-7, Mar.
• Mihaela BRATU SIMIONESCU, 2012, "Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods For Macroeconomic Indicators In Czech Republic," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, volume 3, issue 1, pages 71-87.
• Biljana Petrevska, 2012, "Forecasting International Tourism Demand: The Evidence Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, volume 3, issue 1, pages 45-55.
• Matei, Marius, 2012, "Perspectives on risk measurement: a critical assessment of PC-GARCH against the main volatility forecasting models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 1, pages 95-115, March.
• Cifter, Atilla, 2012, "Volatility Forecasting with Asymmetric Normal Mixture Garch Model: Evidence from South Africa," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 2, pages 127-142, June.
• Stratan, Alexandru & Chistruga, Marcel, 2012, "The Macromodel of the Moldovan Economy Medium-Term Forecast for Moldova," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 2, pages 68-84, June.
• Chang, Chia Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & Mcaleer, Michael, 2012, "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 3, pages 22-43, September.
• Zaman, Gheorghe & Dumitrascu, Roxana Arabela & Dumitrascu, Vadim, 2012, "What is Romania’s Wealth? The Foundation of a National Wealth Evaluation Econometric Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 3, pages 80-96, September.
• Huang, Wen & Huang, Zhuo & Matei, Marius & Wang, Tianyi, 2012, "Price Volatility Forecast for Agricultural Commodity Futures： The Role of High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 4, pages 83-103, December.
• Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012, "Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, volume 4, issue 2, pages 11-15, Decembre.
• V. I. Tinyakova, 2012, "The new approaches in econometric research of financial markets. Distributed volatility," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, volume 4, issue 2, pages 247-255, Decembre.
• Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012, "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, number 229, Apr, revised 18 Apr 2012.
• Leonardo Becchetti & Rocco Ciciretti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2012, "Corporate Social Responsibility and Earnings Forecasting Unbiasedness," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, number 233, May, revised 08 Feb 2013.
• Alessandro Giovannelli, 2012, "Nonlinear Forecasting Using Large Datasets: Evidences on US and Euro Area Economies," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, number 255, Nov, revised 08 Nov 2012.
• Saad Belghazi, 2012, "Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in South and East Mediterranean Countries by 2030," CASE Network Reports, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research, number 0109.
• Matteo Bonato & Massimiliano Caporin & Angelo Ranaldo, 2012, "Risk spillovers in international equity portfolios," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2012-03.
• Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2012, "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, number 2012-16.
• Juthasit Rohitratana & Jorn Altmann, 2012, "Impact of Pricing Schemes on a Market for Software-as-a-Service and Perpetual Software," TEMEP Discussion Papers, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), number 201288, Mar, revised Mar 2012.
• Matías Mayor & Roberto Patuelli, 2012, "Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, chapter 0, in: Esteban Fernández Vázquez & Fernando Rubiera Morollón, "Defining the Spatial Scale in Modern Regional Analysis", DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31994-5_9.
• Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012, "Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, volume 48, issue 3, pages 801-817, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00168-010-0407-3.
• Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012, "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, volume 49, issue 2, pages 485-513, October, DOI: 10.1007/s00168-011-0468-y.
• C. Woo & J. Zarnikau & E. Kollman, 2012, "Exact welfare measurement for double-log demand with partial adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 42, issue 1, pages 171-180, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0416-1.
• Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012, "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 42, issue 1, pages 95-119, February, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0429-9.
• Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012, "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 42, issue 3, pages 639-665, June, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-010-0447-7.
• Daniel Buncic, 2012, "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 43, issue 1, pages 399-426, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0460-5.
• Klaus Prettner & Robert Kunst, 2012, "The dynamic interrelations between unequal neighbors: an Austro-German case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 43, issue 2, pages 741-761, October, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0504-x.
• Verónica Cañal-Fernández, 2012, "Accuracy and reliability of Spanish regional accounts (CRE-95)," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 43, issue 3, pages 1299-1320, December, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-011-0513-9.
• Mercedes Ayuso & Miguel Santolino, 2012, "Forecasting the Maximum Compensation Offer in the Automobile BI Claims Negotiation Process," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, volume 21, issue 5, pages 663-676, September, DOI: 10.1007/s10726-011-9241-y.
• Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012, "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, volume 36, issue 1, pages 226-237, January, DOI: 10.1007/s12197-011-9176-9.
• Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012, "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 270-282, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.007.
• Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Lahiani, Amine & Lévy, Aldo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012, "Forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices with structural breaks and long memory models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 283-293, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.10.015.
• Hickey, Emily & Loomis, David G. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2012, "Forecasting hourly electricity prices using ARMAX–GARCH models: An application to MISO hubs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 307-315, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.11.011.
• Xu, Bing & Ouenniche, Jamal, 2012, "A data envelopment analysis-based framework for the relative performance evaluation of competing crude oil prices' volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 2, pages 576-583, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.12.005.
• Caporin, Massimiliano & Preś, Juliusz & Torro, Hipolit, 2012, "Model based Monte Carlo pricing of energy and temperature Quanto options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 5, pages 1700-1712, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.02.008.
• Chevallier, Julien & Sévi, Benoît, 2012, "On the volatility–volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 1896-1909, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.024.
• Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012, "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 2228-2239, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.06.024.
• He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012, "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, volume 46, issue 1, pages 564-574, DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.07.055.
• Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012, "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, volume 25, issue C, pages 73-82, DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.06.009.
• Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2012, "The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, volume 15, issue 1, pages 1-28, DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2011.07.002.
• Siriopoulos, Costas & Fassas, Athanasios, 2012, "An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, volume 23, issue 2, pages 77-93, DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2012.03.001.
• Grajek, Michał & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2012, "Identifying critical mass in the global cellular telephony market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 6, pages 496-507, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2012.06.003.
• O’Hare, Colin & Li, Youwei, 2012, "Explaining young mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 50, issue 1, pages 12-25, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2011.09.005.
• Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012, "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, volume 50, issue 1, pages 85-93, DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2011.10.002.
• Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012, "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1, pages 273-287, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.07.005.
• Clements, Michael P., 2012, "Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 2, pages 297-308, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.09.001.
• Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012, "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 2, pages 309-314, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.05.003.
• Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paya, Ivan, 2012, "Forecasting monetary policy rules in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 2, pages 446-455, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.04.006.
• Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Hwang, Bruce B.K. & McAleer, Michael, 2012, "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using nonlinear regression quantiles and the intra-day range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 557-574, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.12.004.
• Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2012, "Bias correction and out-of-sample forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 575-586, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.009.
• Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012, "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 623-631, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.08.003.
• Lee, Jong-Wha & Francisco, Ruth, 2012, "Human capital accumulation in emerging Asia, 1970–2030," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, volume 24, issue 2, pages 76-86, DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.008.
• Cipollini, Andrea & Fiordelisi, Franco, 2012, "Economic value, competition and financial distress in the European banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 11, pages 3101-3109, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.07.014.
• Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Idier, Julien, 2012, "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 2, pages 428-438, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.07.019.
• Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012, "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 3, pages 695-716, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.011.
• Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012, "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 7, pages 2026-2047, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.03.008.
• Lee, Bong Soo & Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2012, "Diversification and risk-adjusted performance: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 7, pages 2157-2173, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.03.020.
• Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012, "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 81, issue 2, pages 644-663, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.004.
• Kato, Takafumi, 2012, "Prediction in the lognormal regression model with spatial error dependence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, volume 21, issue 1, pages 66-76, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.01.003.
• Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012, "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, volume 26, issue 1, pages 153-166, DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2011.11.001.
• Kozicki, Sharon, 2012, "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 1, pages 23-28, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.07.005.
• Klein, Lawrence R. & Kushnirsky, Fyodor I. & Maksymenko, Svitlana V., 2012, "Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 3, pages 325-340, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.02.003.
• Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012, "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 34, issue 6, pages 864-878, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.01.010.
• Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012, "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 52, issue 4, pages 402-412, DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.08.002.
• Chen, Sichong, 2012, "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 284-304, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.10.009.
• Liu, Hung-Chun & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Cheng, Nick Ying-Pin, 2012, "Forecasting the volatility of S&P depositary receipts using GARCH-type models under intraday range-based and return-based proxy measures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 78-91, DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.08.007.
• Loek Groot, 2012, "An Olympic Level Playing Field? The Contest for Olympic Success as a Public Good," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, volume 55, issue 2, pages 25-50.
• Mardi Dungey & Jan PAM Jacobs & Jing Tian & Simon van Norden, 2012, "On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-16, Mar.
• Yin Liao, 2012, "Does Modeling Jumps Help? A Comparison of Realized Volatility Models for Risk Prediction," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-26, Jun.
• Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012, "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-33, Jul.
• Pierre L. Siklos, 2012, "Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-42, Sep.
• Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2012, "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2012-48, Nov.
• Mehmet KARACUKA & A.Nazif CATIK, 2012, "Diffusion of Telecommunication Services in Turkey," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, volume 12, issue 4, pages 497-510.
• Nuray GUNERI TOSUNOGLU & Yasemin KESKIN BENLI, 2012, "Morgan Stanley Capital International Turkiye Endeksinin Yapay Sinir Aglari ile Ongorusu," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, volume 12, issue 4, pages 541-547.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012, "Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland," EcoMod2012, EcoMod, number 4219, Jul.
• Javier J. Perez & Rossana Merola, 2012, "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," EcoMod2012, EcoMod, number 4694, Jul.
• Pincheira, Pablo & García, Álvaro, 2012, "En busca de un buen marco de referencia predictivo para la inflación en Chile," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, volume 79, issue 313, pages 85-123, enero-mar, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v79i.
• Faruk Balli & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012, "Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 5, issue 4, pages 321-339, November, DOI: 10.1108/17538391211282827.
• Ndahiriwe Kasaï & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2012, "Financial assets, linear and nonlinear policy rules," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 39, issue 2, pages 161-177, May, DOI: 10.1108/01443581211222644.
• George Karathanasis & Vasilios Sogiakas & Kenellos Toudas, 2012, "Derivatives listing strategy," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 20, issue 3, pages 307-321, July, DOI: 10.1108/13581981211237990.
• Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2012, "Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI2012-13, Apr.
• McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2012, "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2012-29, Oct.
• McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2012, "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2012-34, Oct.
• Bannouh, K. & Martens, M.P.E. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2012, "Forecasting Volatility with the Realized Range in the Presence of Noise and Non-Trading," ERIM Report Series Research in Management, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam, number ERS-2012-018-F&A, Oct.
• Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2012, "An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters," Working Papers, Economic Research Forum, number 680, revised 2012.
• Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2012, "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Working Papers, Economic Research Forum, number 688, revised 2012.
• Karen Poghosyan & Jan R. Magnus, 2012, "WALS Estimation and Forecasting in Factor-based Dynamic Models with an Application to Armenia," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, volume 4, issue 1, pages 40-58, April.
• Colombino, Ugo, 2012, "Equilibrium policy simulation with random utility models of labor supply," EUROMOD Working Papers, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, number EM5/12, Apr.
• Christian Buelens, 2012, "Inflation forecasting and the crisis: assessing the impact on the performance of different forecasting models and methods," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, number 451, Mar.
• João Medeiros, 2012, "Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function – results for a selected number of countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, number 459, Jul.
• Matthieu Droumaguet & Tomasz Wozniak, 2012, "Bayesian Testing of Granger Causality in Markov-Switching VARs," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute, number ECO2012/06.
• Claudia FORONI & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012, "A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute, number ECO2012/07.
• Andrea CARRIERO & Todd E. CLARK & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2012, "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute, number ECO2012/08.
• Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012, "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute, number ECO2012/10.
• Tomasz Wozniak, 2012, "Granger-causal analysis of VARMA-GARCH models," Economics Working Papers, European University Institute, number ECO2012/19.