Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2012

• Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009, "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-145, Jan.
• Michael McAleer, 2009, "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-164, Aug.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2009, "Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-171, Sep.
• Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009, "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-189, Oct.
• Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2010, "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," CARF F-Series, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, number CARF-F-219, May.
• Wildo González, 2012, "Un Gran VAR Bayesiano para la Economía Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 653, Jan.
• Carlos Medel, 2012, "How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 657, Jan.
• Carlos Medel, 2012, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 658, Jan.
• Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2012, "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 679, Nov.
• Orakanya Kanjanatarakul & Komsan Suriya, 2012, "Comparison of sales forecasting models for an innovative agro-industrial product: Bass model versus logistic function," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, volume 1, issue 4, pages 89-106, December.
• Jeroen Rombouts & Lars Stentoft & Francesco Violente, 2012, "The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average Options," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2012s-05, Feb.
• Silvia Gonçalves & Benoit Perron, 2012, "Bootstrapping factor-augmented regression models," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2012s-12, May.
• A. Debòn & S. Haberman & F. Montes & E. Otranto, 2012, "Model effect on projected mortality indicators," Working Paper CRENoS, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia, number 201215.
• Jorge Alberto Achcar & Edilberto Cepeda-Cuervo & Milton Barossi-Filho, 2012, "Multivariate volatility models: an application to IBOVESPA and Dow Jones Industrial," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Carlos Medina & Christian M. Posso & Jorge A.Tamayo & Emma Monsalve, 2012, "Din�mica de la Demanda Laboral en la Industria Manufacturera Colombiana 1993-2009: una Estimaci�n Panel VAR," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9372, Mar.
• Laura Cepeda Emiliani & Juan D. Bar�n, 2012, "Educational Segregation and the Gender Wage Gap for Recent College Graduates in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9382, Mar.
• Luis Fernando Melo & Rub�n Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012, "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9511, Apr.
• Alexander Guar�n & Andr�s Gonz�lez & Daphn� Skandalis & Daniela S�nchez, 2012, "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9826, Jul.
• Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hern�ndez & Jos� David Pulido, 2012, "Pron�sticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad econ�mica colombiana," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9827, Jul.
• Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012, "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia�s exchange rate survey," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 9999, Sep.
• Luis Francisco Ramírez Díaz & Carlos Orlando Parra Penagos, 2012, "Herramientas predictivas en política financiera para empresas rentables," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia.
• Viviana María Oquendo Patino, 2012, "Redes neuronales artificiales en las ciencias económicas," Econógrafos, Escuela de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, number 9938, Mar.
• Fredy Ocaris Pérez Ramírez & Armando Len�n T�mara Ay�s, 2012, "Análisis discriminante como seleccionador de variables incluyentes en el cálculo de la probabilidad de incumplimiento," Revista Ciencias Estratégicas, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana.
• ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K. & STENTOFT, Lars & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2012, "The value of multivariate model sophistication: an application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2012003, Feb.
• WANG, Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2012, "Forecasting long memory processes subject to structural breaks," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2012048, Dec.
• Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2012, "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8828, Feb.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2012, "Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8894, Mar.
• Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012, "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8980, May.
• Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012, "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9096, Aug.
• Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Ketzler, Rolf, 2012, "A Citation-Analysis of Economic Research Institutes," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9110, Sep.
• Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012, "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9112, Sep.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2012, "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 9118, Sep.
• Mario Coccia & Ugo Finardi, 2012, "Groundbreaking technological applications of nanotechnology in biomedicine: detecting emerging pathways from scientific and technological outputs," CERIS Working Paper, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY, number 201207, Jun.
• Antonis Michis, 2012, "Monitoring Forecasting Combinations with Semiparametric Regression Models," Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus, number 2012-2, May.
• Mihaela BRATU SIMIONESCU, 2012, "The Comparison of GDP Strategies Forecasting in Romania," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 39-46.
• Mioara CHIRITA, 2012, "Usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Financial and Economic Crisis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 61-66.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2012, "German Cities to See Further Rises in Housing Prices and Rents in 2013," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 2, issue 12, pages 16-26.
• Christian Westermeier & Anika Rasner & Markus M. Grabka, 2012, "The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), number 440.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2012, "Wohnungspreise und Mieten steigen 2013 in vielen deutschen Großstädten weiter," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 79, issue 45, pages 3-13.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Andreas Mense, 2012, "Forecasting the Prices and Rents for Flats in Large German Cities," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 1207.
• Peter Stephensen, 2012, "SBAM: An Algorithm for Pair Matching," DREAM Working Paper Series, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM, number 201201, Feb.
• Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012, "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX, number 2012-35.
• Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Faridul Islam, 2012, "Are there Benefits from Sectoral Diversification in the Indian BSE Market? Evidence from Non-Parametric Test," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, volume 47, issue 2, pages 285-306.
• OZKAN, Filiz & OZKAN, Omer, 2012, "An Analysis Of Co2 Emissions Of Turkish Industries And Energy Sector," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 12, issue 2.
• Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012, "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2012-002, Jan.
• Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012, "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2012-023, Aug.
• Marta Bañbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012, "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2012-026, Aug.
• Gholam Hossein Hasantash & Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012, "Modelling the Errors of EIA's Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, volume 2, issue 3, pages 312-319.
• Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012, "Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran s Energy Consumption and Supply," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, volume 2, issue 3, pages 97-102.
• Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan, 2012, "Assessing the Predictive Power of Customer Satisfaction for Financial and Market Performances: Price-to-Earnings Ratio is a Better Predictor Overall," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, volume 2, issue 1, pages 59-74.
• Chan, Joshua & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon, 2012, "A New Model Of Trend Inflation," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2012-12.
• Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012, "Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2012-80.
• Deschamps, Philippe J., 2012, "Bayesian estimation of generalized hyperbolic skewed student GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3035-3054, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2011.10.021.
• Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012, "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3415-3429, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.06.025.
• Caporin, Massimiliano & Preś, Juliusz, 2012, "Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3459-3476, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.06.019.
• Huurman, Christian & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Zhou, Chen, 2012, "The power of weather," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 11, pages 3793-3807, DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.06.021.
• Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2012, "Modelling and forecasting noisy realized volatility," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 1, pages 217-230, January.
• Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012, "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 8, pages 1267-1283, DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.010.
• Eleftherios Giovanis, 2012, "Study of Discrete Choice Models and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, volume 42, issue 1, pages 79-96, March.
• Heilemann, Ullrich & Findeis, Hagen, 2012, "Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 2, pages 158-165, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.09.003.
• Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012, "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 3, pages 908-916, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.12.013.
• Liu, Philip & Matheson, Troy & Romeu, Rafael, 2012, "Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 4, pages 1090-1098, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.020.
• Ibarra, Raul, 2012, "Do disaggregated CPI data improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 4, pages 1305-1313, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.017.
• Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012, "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 4, pages 1349-1355, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.004.
• Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Scharff, Juliane & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012, "The Halle Economic Projection Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 4, pages 1461-1472, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.010.
• Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012, "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 5, pages 1571-1578, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.010.
• Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012, "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 5, pages 1686-1714, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.002.
• Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012, "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 6, pages 2174-2182, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.011.
• Naz, Farah & Mohsin, Asma & Zaman, Khalid, 2012, "Exchange rate pass-through in to inflation: New insights in to the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 6, pages 2205-2221, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.012.
• Babikir, Ali & Gupta, Rangan & Mwabutwa, Chance & Owusu-Sekyere, Emmanuel, 2012, "Structural breaks and GARCH models of stock return volatility: The case of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 6, pages 2435-2443, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.06.038.
• Tang, Hui-Wen Vivian & Yin, Mu-Shang, 2012, "Forecasting performance of grey prediction for education expenditure and school enrollment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 4, pages 452-462, DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2011.12.007.
• Mandler, Martin, 2012, "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using time-varying Taylor rules and real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 23, issue 2, pages 228-245, DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2012.01.003.
• Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012, "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 114, issue 3, pages 284-287, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.005.
• Shepherd, Ben, 2012, "When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 1, pages 4-6, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.017.
• Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut, 2012, "Causal relations between inflation and inflation uncertainty—Cross sectional evidence in favour of the Friedman–Ball hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 2, pages 144-147, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.036.
• Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo, 2012, "Conditional forecasts on SVAR models using the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 3, pages 376-378, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.087.
• Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani, 2012, "Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 115, issue 3, pages 383-386, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.088.
• Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012, "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 116, issue 3, pages 601-603, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.06.010.
• Karamé, F., 2012, "An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 1, pages 230-234, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.089.
• Emre Alper, C. & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2012, "MIDAS volatility forecast performance under market stress: Evidence from emerging stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 2, pages 528-532, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.05.037.
• Taylor, Nicholas, 2012, "Testing forecasting model versatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 3, pages 803-806, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.08.044.
• Jean-Baptiste, Frédo, 2012, "Forecasting with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 117, issue 3, pages 811-813, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.02.034.
• Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2012, "The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 167, issue 1, pages 47-60, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.08.008.
• Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2012, "In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 1, pages 1-14, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2010.09.012.
• Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason, James M. & Rossi, Barbara, 2012, "Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 170, issue 2, pages 499-518, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.019.
• Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2012, "Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 171, issue 2, pages 152-166, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.06.008.
• Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Grose, Simone D., 2012, "Probabilistic forecasts of volatility and its risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 171, issue 2, pages 217-236, DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.06.006.
• Ari, Ali, 2012, "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 3, pages 391-410, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.07.001.
• Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012, "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, volume 56, issue 3, pages 526-551, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.12.003.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012, "Lasso-type and Heuristic Strategies in Model Selection and Forecasting," Jena Economics Research Papers, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, number 2012-055, Oct.
• Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012, "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, volume 40, issue 3, pages 245-264, October, DOI: 10.1007/s10614-011-9288-5.
• Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012, "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, volume 44, issue 3, pages 319-338, April, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-009-9231-x.
• Antoine Auberger, 2012, "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, volume 153, issue 3, pages 329-340, December, DOI: 10.1007/s11127-011-9796-9.
• April Knill & Kristina Minnick & Ali Nejadmalayeri, 2012, "Experience, information asymmetry, and rational forecast bias," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 39, issue 2, pages 241-272, August, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-011-0252-1.
• Cheng-Few Lee & Jung-Bin Su, 2012, "Alternative statistical distributions for estimating value-at-risk: theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 39, issue 3, pages 309-331, October, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-011-0256-x.
• David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012, "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, volume 73, issue 2, pages 295-314, August, DOI: 10.1007/s11238-012-9305-8.
• Ralf Brüggemann & Jing Zeng, 2012, "Forecasting Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2012-15, Aug.
• Roxana Halbleib & Valeri Voev, 2012, "Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2012-30, Oct.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012, "Keeping a Finger on the Pulse of the Economy," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 12-302, Apr, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007216957.
• David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2012, "The R-word Index for Switzerland," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 12-304, Jun, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007319025.
• Boriss Siliverstovs & Sergey Smirnov & Sergey Tsukhlo, 2012, "Assessing Forecasting Performance of Business Tendency Surveys during the Great Recession," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 12-306, Jul, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007328340.
• Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino & Michael Siegenthaler, 2012, "A real time evaluation of employment forecasts in Switzerland," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 12-320, Nov, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-007568961.
• Báger, Gusztáv & Galbács, Péter & Pulay, Gyula, 2012, "Az állami költségvetés makrogazdasági kockázatainak elemzése
  [Analysing macroeconomic risks in the state budget]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 9, pages 1014-1036.
• Michael McAleer & Massimiliano Caporin, 2012, "Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 815, Apr.
• Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2012, "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts:A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 821, Jun.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Teodosio Perez-Amaral, 2012, "Has the Basel Accord Improved Risk Management During the Global Financial Crisis?," KIER Working Papers, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research, number 832, Nov.
• Wojciech Charemza & Yuriy Kharin & Vladislav Maevskiy, 2012, "Bilinear forecast risk assessment for non-systematic inflation: Theory and evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, number 12/22, Oct.
• Jian Wu & Zhengjun Zhang & Yong Zhao, 2012, "Study of the Tail Dependence Structure in Global Financial Markets Using Extreme Value Theory," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, volume 1, pages 62-81.
• Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012, "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 201213.
• Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012, "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 44, issue 1, pages 103-144, February, DOI: j.1538-4616.2011.00470.x.
• Antonello D‚Äôagostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012, "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 44, issue 4, pages 715-732, June, DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00507.x.
• Marcin Kolasa & Micha≈Å Rubaszek & Pawe≈Å Skrzypczy≈Éski, 2012, "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 44, issue 7, pages 1301-1324, October, DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00533.x.
• Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança, 2012, "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7," GEE Papers, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, number 0047, Apr, revised Apr 2012.
• Tomasz Wozniak, 2012, "Testing Causality Between Two Vectors in Multivariate GARCH Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne, number 1139.
• Olivér Miklós Rácz, 2012, "Using confidence indicators for the assessment of the cyclical position of the economy," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), volume 7, issue 2, pages 41-46, June.
• Dániel Holló, 2012, "Identifying imbalances in the Hungarian banking system (‘early warning’ system)," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), volume 7, issue 3, pages 38-45, October.
• Csaba Csávás & Szilárd Erhart & Dániel Felcser & Anna Naszodi, 2012, "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? Constructing a Weighted Transparency Index," MNB Working Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), number 2012/6.
• Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012, "Prévoir sans persistance," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 12001, Jan, DOI: 10.3917/reco.633.0581.
• Verónica Acurio Vasconez & Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Ngoc Sang Pham, 2012, "Energy and Capital in a New-Keynesian Framework," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 12092, Dec.
• Alessandro Giovannelli, 2012, "Nonlinear Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 143-150.
• Jakub Muck & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2012, "Can we beat the random walk in forecasting CEE exchange rates?," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 127.
• Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2012, "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 17998, Apr.
• Robert Novy-Marx, 2012, "Pseudo-Predictability in Conditional Asset Pricing Tests: Explaining Anomaly Performance with Politics, the Weather, Global Warming, Sunspots, and the Stars," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18063, May.
• Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012, "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18222, Jul.
• Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2012, "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18382, Sep.
• Francis X. Diebold, 2012, "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18391, Sep.
• Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2012, "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 18467, Oct.
• Christian R. Proaño & Thomas Theobald, 2012, "Predicting German Recessions with a Composite Real-Time Dynamic Probit Indicator," Working Papers, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, number 1205, Jul.
• Cristina Amado & Timo Terasvirta, 2012, "Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho, number 02/2012.
• Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & José Nilo de Oliveira Júnior & Ivan Castelar, 2012, "Modelos de Índice de Difusão para prever a taxa de crescimento do PIB agrícola brasileiro [Diffusion index models to forecast GDP growth rate Brazilian agriculture]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), volume 22, issue 1, pages 117-139, January-A.
• C. Marbot & D. Roy, 2012, "Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2012-10.
• D. Blanchet & S. Le Minez, 2012, "Joint macro/micro evaluations of accrued-to-date pension liabilities: an application to French reforms," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2012-14.
• Bogdan OANCEA & Tudorel ANDREI & Raluca DRAGOESCU, 2012, "Cuda Based Computational Methods For Macroeconomic Forecasts," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 1, issue 1, pages 42-53, January.
• Arnaud Doucet & Neil Shephard, 2012, "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, number 2012-W05, Jun.
• Ekaterina Tosheva, 2012, "Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investments in Bulgaria for the Period 1999 - 2011," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 68-78, April.
• Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012, "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Discussion Papers, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics, number 12-04.
• Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008, "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2008/13, Aug.
• Thomas Laurent & Tomasz Koźluk, 2012, "Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 978, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en.
• Elena Rusticelli, 2012, "Non-Parametric Stochastic Simulations to Investigate Uncertainty around the OECD Indicator Model Forecasts," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 979, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/5k94kq50b2jd-en.
• Stéphane Sorbe, 2012, "Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 984, Sep, DOI: 10.1787/5k92smzp0b6h-en.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2013, "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 67-89, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k49pkpbf76j.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Kieran McQuinn & Derry O’Brien, 2012, "Nowcasting Irish GDP," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2012, issue 2, pages 21-31, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k92n2pwccwb.
• Gagea Mariana, 2012, "The Contribution Of Business Confidence Indicators In Short-Term Forecasting Of Economic Development," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, volume 1, issue 1, pages 617-623, July.
• Dale W. R. Rosenthal, 2012, "Modeling Trade Direction," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 10, issue 2, pages 390-415, 2012 04.
• Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2012, "Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 10, issue 4, pages 591-616, September.
• Slãvescu Ecaterina Oana & Panait Iulian, 2012, "Improving Customer Churn Models as one of Customer Relationship Management Business Solutions for the Telecommunication Industry," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 1, pages 1156-1160, May.
• ILIE Margareta & ILIE Constantin & ANTOHI Ionut, 2012, "Simulating the Evolution of Romanian's Pupils and Students Considering the Country's Economic Activity," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 1, pages 996-1001, May.
• Ene Sebastian & Chilarez Danut, 2012, "The Impact of Open Market Variables on FDI. Case of Romania," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 1126-1130, Decembre.
• Ciobanu Dumitru & Bar Mary Violeta, 2012, "A Comparison Between Two Predictive Models of Artificial Intelligence," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 362-367, Decembre.
• Bratu (Simionescu) Mihaela, 2012, "Macroeconomic Forecasts Comparisons in Romania During the Crisis Using New Methods of Assessing the Predictions Accuracy," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 3, pages 1-24, Decembre.
• Ilie Constantin & Ilie Margareta & Topalu Ana-Maria, 2012, "Using Artificial Neural Network to predict the NASDAQ evolution," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 3, pages 1-32, Decembre.
• Neil Shephard & Arnaud Doucet, 2012, "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 606, Jun.
• Francis X. Diebold, 2012, "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 12-035, Sep.
• Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012, "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 12-046, Oct.
• Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012, "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 13-061, May, revised 03 Sep 2013.
• Dumitru Ciobanu, 2012, "The Horizon of Prediction for Exchange Rate Eur-Leu," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 2, pages 85-92.
• Sándor Kovács & Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Péter Balogh, 2012, "The Long Memory Property of Hungarian Market Pig Prices: A Comparison of Three Different Methods," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 3, pages 123-138.
• Alina Hagiu, 2012, "Econometric Model Concerning The Status and Evolution of The Automotive Industry in Romania," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 3, pages 83-96.
• Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012, "The Accuracy and Bias Evaluation of the USA Unemployment Rate Forecasts. Methods to Improve the Forecasts Accuracy," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, volume 12, issue 4, pages 17-32.
• Dennis S. Mapa & Michael Daniel Lucagbo & Heavenly Joy Garcia, 2012, "The link between agricultural output and the states of poverty in the Philippines: evidence from self-rated poverty data," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, volume 49, issue 2, pages 51-74, December.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2012, "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? the case of Chilean GDP," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 35949, Jan.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2012, "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno?
  [Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 35950, Jan.
• Weber, Patrick, 2012, "Timing asset market peaks: the role of the liquidity risk cycle of the banking system," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36061, Jan.
• Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012, "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36147, Jan.
• Fry, John, 2012, "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36202, Jan.
• Cayton, Peter Julian A. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2012, "Time-varying conditional Johnson SU density in value-at-risk (VaR) methodology," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36206, Jan.
• Liew, Freddy, 2012, "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36781, Jan.
• Ubilava, David & Helmers, C Gustav, 2012, "Forecasting ENSO with a smooth transition autoregressive model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 36890, Jan.
• Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012, "Testing for predictability in a noninvertible ARMA model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37151.
• Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012, "Identification of Animal Spirits in a Bounded Rationality Model: An Application to the Euro Area," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37399, Mar.
• Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2012, "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev wave," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 37771, Mar.
• Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012, "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38885, Mar.
• Doretti, Marco, 2012, "Modelli di scoring per il rischio paese
  [Scoring models for country risk]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 38898, Feb.
• Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012, "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39168, Apr.
• Gabrielsen, A. & Zagaglia, Paolo & Kirchner, A. & Liu, Z., 2012, "Forecasting Value-at-Risk with time-varying variance, skewness and kurtosis in an exponential weighted moving average framework," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39294, Jun.
• Liebermann, Joelle, 2012, "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39452.
• Czinkota, Thomas, 2012, "Zeitpunktsignale zum aktiven Portfoliomanagement
  [Time-Point-Signals for Active Portfolio Management]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 39565, Jun.
• Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2012, "A tutorial note on the properties of ARIMA optimal forecasts," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40303, Jan, revised 27 Jul 2012.
• Chen, Shu-Ling & Jackson, John D. & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Resiandini, Pramesti, 2012, "What Drives Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40711, Aug.
• Mapa, Dennis S. & Lucagbo, Michael & Garcia, Heavenly Joy, 2012, "The Link between Agricultural Output and the States of Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence from Self-Rated Poverty Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40791, Aug.
• Lahvicka, Jiri, 2012, "Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 40998, Sep.
• Bruno, Giancarlo, 2012, "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41312, Sep.
• Sinha, Pankaj & Sharma, Aastha & Singh, Harsh Vardhan, 2012, "Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential Election using Multiple Regression Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41486, Aug.
• Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012, "Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 41624, Sep.