Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2006

• Munir A. Jalil. B & Martha Misas, 2006, "Evaluaci�n de pron�sticos del tipo de cambio utilizando," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 2636, Feb.
• Jorge E. Restrepo & Hern�n Rinc�n, 2006, "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 2800, Jul.
• Andr�s Gonz�lez & Luis Fernando Melo & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006, "Inflaci�n y dinero en Colombia: otro modelo P-estrella," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 2851, Nov.
• Constanza MARTINEZ VENTURA, 2006, "Pronósticos de producción agrícola," Archivos de Economía, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, number 3394, Apr.
• Julio César Alonso & Mauricio Alejandro Arcos, 2006, "Valor en Riesgo: Evaluación del desempeno de diferentes metodologías para 7 países latinoamericanos," Borradores de Economía y Finanzas, Universidad Icesi, number 3744, Sep.
• María Clara Aristizábal, 2006, "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
• Fabia A de Carvalho & Mauricio S. Bugarin, 2006, "Inflation Expectations in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, volume 0, issue Spring 20, pages 101-145.
• BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid & RENGIFO, Erick, 2006, "Intra-daily FX optimal portfolio allocation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2006010, Feb.
• BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006, "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2006021, Mar.
• PREMINGER, Arie & HAFNER, Christian, 2006, "Deciding between GARCH and stochastic volatility via strong decision rules," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2006042, May.
• CORONEO, Laura & VEREDAS, David, 2006, "Intradaily seasonality of returns distribution. A quantile regression approach and intradaily VaR estimation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2006077, Sep.
• Bert Smid, 2006, "Athena; a multi-sector model of the Dutch economy," CPB Document, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 105, Jan.
• Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2006, "Structural Changes in the US Economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5457, Jan.
• Canova, Fabio, 2006, "Monetary Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5467, Jan.
• Hendry, David & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006, "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5485, Jan.
• Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006, "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5578, Mar.
• Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine, 2006, "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5829, Sep.
• Schaling, Eric & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006, "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 5896, Oct.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006, "A Simple Benchmark for Forecasts of Growth and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 6012, Dec.
• Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2006, "Value-at-Risk for long and short trading positions: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0601, Jan.
• Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2006, "Asset allocation in the Athens Stock Exchange: A variance sensitivity analysis," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0602, Feb.
• Yiannis Kamarianakis & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2006, "Control Bands for Tracking Constant Portfolio Allocations with Fixed and Proportional Transaction Costs," Working Papers, University of Crete, Department of Economics, number 0610, May.
• Greta Falavigna, 2006, "Models for Default Risk Analysis: Focus on Artificial Neural Networks, Model Comparisons, Hybrid Frameworks," CERIS Working Paper, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY, number 200610, Dec.
• Luc, BAUWENS & Walid, BEN OMRANE & Erick, Rengifo, 2006, "Intra-Daily FX Optimal Portfolio Allocation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques), Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques, number 2006005, Feb.
• Luc, BAUWENS & Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2006, "General to Specific Modelling of Exchange Rate Volatility : a Forecast Evaluation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques), Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques, number 2006013, Feb.
• Pin-Huang Chou & Guofu Zhou, 2006, "Using Bootstrap to Test Portfolio Efficiency," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, volume 7, issue 2, pages 217-249, November.
• Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006, "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, volume 38, issue 3, pages 513-523, December.
• Rossi, Barbara, 2006, "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 10, issue 1, pages 20-38, February.
• Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2006, "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL), Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL), number 36774, Mar.
• Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2009, "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL), Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL), number 77372.
• Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006, "Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 73, issue 34, pages 469-474.
• Bhattacharya, Prasad S. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2006, "Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation: does exchange rate pass-through matter?," Working Papers, Deakin University, Department of Economics, number eco_2006_10, Jan, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.002.
• Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2006, "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 06-01.
• GÓMEZ-SORZANO Gustavo A, 2006, "A Structural Model For The Demand For Lease Renewals In The U.S. Leasing Industry," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 6, issue 1.
• Anthony S. Tay, 2006, "Mixing Frequencies : Stock Returns as a Predictor of Real Output Growth," Macroeconomics Working Papers, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research, number 22480, Jan.
• Libor Krkoska & Utku Teksoz, 2006, "Forecasting inflation for transition countries: How accurate are the EBRD forecasts?," Working Papers, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist, number 98, Sep.
• Manganelli, Simone, 2006, "A new theory of forecasting," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 584, Jan.
• Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006, "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 589, Feb.
• Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006, "Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 595, Mar.
• Surico, Paolo & Giannone, Domenico & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006, "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 605, Apr.
• Diron, Marie, 2006, "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 622, May.
• Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006, "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 633, May.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006, "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 638, Jun.
• Bernadell, Carlos & Coche, Joachim & Nyholm, Ken, 2006, "A factor risk model with reference returns for the US dollar and Japanese yen bond markets," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 641, Jun.
• D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2006, "Comparing alternative predictors based on large-panel factor models," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 680, Oct.
• Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & De Mol, Christine, 2006, "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank, number 700, Dec.
• Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006, "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, number 1927, Feb.
• Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006, "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, volume 74, issue 6, pages 1545-1578, November.
• Agostino Consolo, 2006, "Forecasting measures of inflation for the Estonian economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers, Bank of Estonia, number 2006-03, Oct, revised 12 Nov 2006.
• Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006, "Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, volume 17, issue 1, pages 63-84, February.
• Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006, "A small macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 23, issue 1, pages 45-55, January.
• Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2006, "Forecasting using predictive likelihood model averaging," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 91, issue 3, pages 373-379, June.
• Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006, "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 130, issue 2, pages 273-306, February.
• Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006, "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 131, issue 1-2, pages 3-27.
• Pelletier, Denis, 2006, "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 131, issue 1-2, pages 445-473.
• Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006, "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 131, issue 1-2, pages 539-578.
• Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006, "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 132, issue 2, pages 337-362, June.
• Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006, "Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 13, issue 2, pages 203-230, March.
• Ard Reijer & Peter Vlaar, 2006, "Forecasting Inflation: An Art as Well as a Science!," De Economist, Springer, volume 154, issue 1, pages 19-40, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10645-006-0002-2.
• Luke Brander & Raymond Florax & Jan Vermaat, 2006, "The Empirics of Wetland Valuation: A Comprehensive Summary and a Meta-Analysis of the Literature," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, volume 33, issue 2, pages 223-250, February, DOI: 10.1007/s10640-005-3104-4.
• Alberto Bagnai, 2006, "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, volume 3, issue 2, pages 137-155, November, DOI: 10.1007/s10368-006-0050-8.
• J. Elhorst & Jan Oosterhaven, 2006, "Forecasting the impact of transport improvements on commuting and residential choice," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, volume 8, issue 1, pages 39-59, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10109-005-0015-4.
• Rian Beise-Zee & Christian Rammer, 2006, "Local User-Producer Interaction in Innovation and Export Performance of Firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, volume 27, issue 2, pages 207-222, October, DOI: 10.1007/s11187-006-0013-z.
• Namwon Hyung & Philip Hans Franses, 2006, "Fi-break Model of US Inflation Rate: Long-memory, Level Shifts, or Both?," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, volume 22, pages 83-97.
• Wade D. Pfau, 2006, "Predicting the Medal Wins at the 2006 Winter Olympics: an Econometrics Approach," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, volume 22, pages 233-247.
• Costas Milas & Ilias Lekkos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006, "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Keele Economics Research Papers, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, number KERP 2006/05, Apr.
• Christian Mueller, 2006, "Testing Temporal Disaggregation," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 06-134, Apr, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005187504.
• Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006, "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, number 2006_6, Mar, revised Mar 2006.
• María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006, "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 65, pages 73-116, Julio-Dic.
• Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari & Muhammad Shahbaz Akmal & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2006, "Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, volume 11, issue 1, pages 121-139, Jan-Jun.
• Chris Heaton & Victor Solo, 2006, "Estimation of Approximate Factor Models: Is it Important to have a Large Number of Variables?," Research Papers, Macquarie University, Department of Economics, number 0605, Sep.
• Gilles Dufrénot & Roselyne Joyeux & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2006, "Which Predictor is the Best to Predict Inflation in Europe: the Real Money-gap or a Nominal Money Based Indicator?," Research Papers, Macquarie University, Department of Economics, number 0606, Oct.
• Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006, "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor," Center for Policy Research Working Papers, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, number 84, Jul.
• Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006, "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 38, issue 5, pages 1127-1148, August, DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0068.
• John G. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2006, "How Far Can We Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons For Some Important Macroeconomic Time Series," Departmental Working Papers, McGill University, Department of Economics, number 2006-13, Sep.
• Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006, "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne, number 963.
• Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács & Balázs Párkányi & Zoltán Reppa & Gábor Vadas, 2006, "The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)," MNB Occasional Papers, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), number 2006/60.
• Gael M. Martin & Andrew Reidy & Jill Wright, 2006, "Assessing the Impact of Market Microstructure Noise and Random Jumps on the Relative Forecasting Performance of Option-Implied and Returns-Based Volatility," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 10/06.
• Heather Booth & Rob J Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006, "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 13/06, May.
• Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006, "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 14/06, May.
• S. D. Grose & D. S. Poskitt, 2006, "The Finite-Sample Properties of Autoregressive Approximations of Fractionally-Integrated and Non-Invertible Processes," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 15/06, Jun.
• George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006, "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 19/06, Oct.
• Rob J Hyndman & Muhammad Akram, 2006, "Some Nonlinear Exponential Smoothing Models are Unstable," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 3/06, Jan.
• Philippe Jeanfils & Philippe Delhez & Luc Van Meensel & Koen Burggraeve & Kristel Buysse & Philip Du Caju & Yves Saks & Kris Van Cauter, 2006, "Réduction linéaire de cotisations patronales à la sécurité sociale et financement alternatif," Working Paper Document, National Bank of Belgium, number 81, Mar.
• Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006, "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 0326, Aug.
• Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006, "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 0332, Dec.
• Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006, "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 12083, Mar.
• Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006, "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 12109, Mar.
• James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006, "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 12324, Jun.
• Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006, "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 12772, Dec.
• O. Biau & N. Ferrari, 2006, "Balance of opinion What about missing the weights?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2006-12.
• Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006, "High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting," Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, number 2006-W12, Oct.
• Troy Matheson, 2006, "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2006/01, Feb.
• Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Shaun P. Vahey, 2006, "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2006/02, Feb.
• Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Patrice Ollivaud & Pete Richardson & Franck Sédillot, 2006, "New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 482, Jul, DOI: 10.1787/628752675863.
• Annabelle Mourougane, 2006, "Forecasting Monthly GDP for Canada," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 515, Sep, DOI: 10.1787/421416670553.
• Pelinescu Elena, 2006, "Modelarea inflaţiei în România," Revista OEconomica, Romanian Society for Economic Science, Revista OEconomica, issue 01, March.
• Kazuhiko NISHINA & Tatsuro Nabil MAGHREBI & Moo-Sung KIM, 2006, "Stock Market Volatility And The Forecasting Accuracy Of Implied Volatility Indices," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, number 06-09, Mar.
• Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2006, "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, volume 44, issue 1, pages 185-197, January.
• Markku Lanne, 2006, "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 4, issue 4, pages 594-616.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006, "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, volume 73, issue 4, pages 1057-1084.
• Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006, "High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 2006-FE-11, Oct.
• Guillaume Chevillon, 2006, "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 257, Feb.
• F. Laurini & J. A. Tawn, 2006, "The extremal index for GARCH(1,1) processes with t-distributed innovations," Economics Department Working Papers, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy), number 2006-SE01.
• L. Grossi & G. Morelli, 2006, "Robust volatility forecasts and model selection in financial time series," Economics Department Working Papers, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy), number 2006-SE02.
• Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006, "Exploring the Usefulness of a Non-Random Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects on Female Behavior," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 06-006, May.
• Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006, "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, volume 45, issue 3, pages 369-381.
• Francois-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret & Alain Coen, 2006, "Forecasting Irregularly Spaced UHF Financial Data: Realized Volatility vs UHF-GARCH Models," RePAd Working Paper Series, Département des sciences administratives, UQO, number UQO-DSA-wp152006, Jul.
• Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006, "A structural model for corporate profit in the U.S. industry," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 1144, May, revised 11 Dec 2006.
• Feng, Dai & Yuan-Zheng, Zhong, 2006, "The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 117, Oct.
• Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006, "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 1180, Oct.
• Racoceanu, Constantin, 2006, "Method of the exponential adjustement using directly the terms of the empiric series in the analysis of the dynamics of the textile confections production," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 1282, Oct.
• Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006, "A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 134, May, revised 22 May 2006.
• Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006, "Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 135, Sep, revised 22 Sep 2006.
• Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2006, "Point and interval forecasting of wholesale electricity prices: Evidence from the Nord Pool market," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 1363.
• Gelhausen, Marc Christopher, 2006, "Flughafen- und Zugangsverkehrsmittelwahl in Deutschland - Ein verallgemeinerter Nested Logit-Ansatz," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16002.
• Ghent, Andra, 2006, "Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 180, Aug.
• Olafsdottir, Katrin, 2006, "Úttekt á efnahagsspám Þjóðhagsstofnunar fyrir árin 1981-2002
  [The accuracy of the National Economic Institute‘s forecasts 1981-2002]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18257, Jan.
• Quaas, Georg, 2006, "Ganzheitliche Wirkungen von Dummyvariablen auf die Prognosegenauigkeit ökonometrischer Modelle – analysiert am Beispiel des RWI-Konjunkturmodells KM59
  [Holistic effects of dummy variables on the forecast accuracy of econometric models – an analysi," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19028, Nov, revised 05 Dec 2009.
• Breiding, Torsten, 2006, "Die Arbeitslosenversicherung in Deutschland – Beitrag zur Bekämpfung oder Ursache von Arbeitslosigkeit
  [The unemployment insurance in Germany - does it cause or does it help to overcome unemployment?]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 20999, Sep.
• Caiado, Jorge & Vieira, Aníbal & Bonito, Ana & Reis, Carlos & Fernandes, Francisco, 2006, "Previsão da eficácia ofensiva do futebol profissional: Um caso Português," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 2185.
• De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006, "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 2512, Nov, revised 03 Mar 2007.
• Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2006, "Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 30131, Oct, revised 22 Oct 2006.
• Izquierdo, Segismundo S. & Hernández, Cesáreo & del Hoyo, Juan, 2006, "Forecasting VARMA processes using VAR models and subspace-based state space models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 4235, Oct.
• Gelhausen, Marc Christopher, 2006, "Airport and Access Mode Choice in Germany: A Generalized Neural Logit Model Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 4236, Aug, revised Sep 2006.
• Fuerst, Franz, 2006, "Predictable or Not? Forecasting Office Markets with a Simultaneous Equation Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 5262, Jun.
• Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006, "The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 539, Oct.
• Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006, "Nonlinear Links between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Movements," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 558, Sep.
• Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006, "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 561, Oct.
• Ahec Šonje, Amina & Katarina, Bacic, 2006, "A composite leading indicator for a small transition economy: the case of Croatia," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 83135, Feb, revised Apr 2006.
• Situngkir, Hokky, 2006, "Value at Risk yang memperhatikan sifat statistika distribusi return," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 895, Apr.
• Dion, David Pascal, 2006, "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 902, Nov.
• Dion, David Pascal, 2006, "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 911, Nov.
• Dion, David Pascal, 2006, "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case (Appendix to the main text)," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 919, Nov.
• Lorde, Troy & Moore, Winston, 2006, "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Long-stay Tourist Arrivals," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 95599, Dec.
• Christopher A. Sims, 2006, "Improving Monetary Policy Models," Working Papers, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies., number 74, May.
• Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006, "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange rate Determination," Discussion Papers, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy, number 5_2006, Mar.
• Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006, "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy, number 7_2006, Apr.
• Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006, "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 554, Mar.
• Geoffrey Ducanes & Marie Anne Cagas & Duo Qin & Pilipinas Quising & Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, 2006, "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policies: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, China, Indonesia and the Philippines," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 564, Sep.
• George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006, "Forecasting using Bayesian and Information Theoretic Model Averaging: An Application to UK Inflation," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 566, Sep.
• George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006, "Forecasting Using Predictive Likelihood Model Averaging," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 567, Sep.
• Silvia S.W. Lui, 2006, "An Empirical Study of Asian Stock Volatility Using Stochastic Volatility Factor Model: Factor Analysis and Forecasting," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 581, Dec.
• Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006, "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
• Mario Mesía & Eduardo Costa & Oscar Graham & Robert Soto & Alejandro Rabanal, 2006, "El costo del crédito en el Perú, revisión de la evolución reciente," Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, number 2006-004, Jun.
• Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2006, "Speculative Bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the Tech Bubble Confined to the Tech Sector?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2006-07, Jul.
• Jacques Pezier & Anthony White, 2006, "The Relative Merits of Investable Hedge Fund Indices and of Funds of Hedge Funds in Optimal Passive Portfolios," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2006-10, Nov.
• Chris Brooks & A.Cerny & J. Miffre, 2006, "Optimal Hedging with Higher Moments," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2006-12, Nov.
• Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2006, "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank, number 81, Jun.
• Yuriy Kharin, 2006, "Stability in Stochastic Forecasting of Time Series," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 1, issue 1, pages 82-93.
• Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Pauna, Bianca, 2006, "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Transition Economy - Yearly and Monthly Forecast -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 1, pages 111-112, March.
• Dobrescu, Emilian & Nastac, Iulian & Pelinescu, Elena, 2006, "An Adaptive Retraining Method for the Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 1, pages 5-23, March.
• Andreica, Marin, 2006, "A Model to Forecast the Evolution of the Structure of a System of Economic Indicators," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 1, pages 65-73, March.
• Scutaru, Cornelia & Ciupagea, Constantin & Fomin, Petre & Pauna, Bianca, 2006, "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Transition Economy - Yearly and Monthly Forecast -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 2, pages 110-111, June.
• Ogrean, Claudia & Herciu, Mihaela, 2006, "Competitiveness and Corruption in Romania - Forecasting in the Context of the Romanian Integration into the European Union," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 2, pages 72-88, June.
• Scutaru, Cornelia & Ciupagea, Constantin & Fomin, Petre & Pauna, Bianca, 2006, "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Transition Economy - Yearly and Monthly Forecast -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 3, pages 101-102, September.
• Scutaru, Cornelia & Ciupagea, Constantin & Fomin, Petre & Pauna, Bianca, 2006, "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Transition Economy - Yearly and Monthly Forecast -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 3, issue 4, pages 110-111, December.
• Norman Swanson & Geetesh Bhardwaj, 2006, "A Predictive Comparison of Some Simple Long Memory and Short Memory Models of Daily U.S. Stock Returns, With Emphasis on Business Cycle Effects," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics, number 200613, Sep.
• Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson & Walter Distaso, 2006, "Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics, number 200616, Sep.
• Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson & Walter Distaso, 2006, "Predictive Density Estimators for Daily Volatility Based on the Use of Realized Measures," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics, number 200620, Oct.
• Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2006, "High Dimensional Yield Curves: Models and Forecasting," OFRC Working Papers Series, Oxford Financial Research Centre, number 2006fe11.
• Luiz Renato Lima & Breno Pinheiro Néri, 2006, "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 1, Jul.
• Geraldine Ryan, 2006, "The predictive power of the present value model of stock prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 102, Jul.
• Kostas Giannopoulos, 2006, "Pricing Basket spread options," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 252, Jul.
• Y. Kahiri & A. Shmilovici & S. Hauser, 2006, "Measuring the Efficiency of the Intraday Forex Market with a Universal Data Compression Algorithm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 256, Jul.
• Segismundo Izquierdo & Cesareo Hernandez & Juan del Hoyo, 2006, "Forecasting VARMA processes: VAR models vs. subspace-based state space models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 271, Jul.
• Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006, "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 3, Jul.
• Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006, "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 350, Jul.
• Ugo Albertazzi & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2006, "Bank Profitability and Taxation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 364, Jul.
• Giuseppe Storti & Luc Bauwens, 2006, "A component GARCH model with time varying weights," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 388, Jul.
• Serge Hayward, 2006, "Genetically Optimised Artificial Neural Network for Financial Time Series Data Mining," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 417, Jul.
• Alessandra Amendola & Giuseppe Storti, 2006, "The combination of volatility forecasts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 496, Jul.
• Dean Fantazzini & Alessandro Carta & Elena Maria DeGiuli, 2006, "A Unified Copula Framework for VaR forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics, number 57, Jul.
• Michael Graff, 2006, "Ein multisektoraler Sammelindikator für die Schweizer Konjunktur," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), volume 142, issue IV, pages 529-577, December.
• Caesar Lack, 2006, "Forecasting Swiss inflation using VAR models," Economic Studies, Swiss National Bank, number 2006-02.
• Michael Clements, 2006, "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 31, issue 1, pages 49-64, March, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9.
• Heino Nielsen & Christopher Bowdler, 2006, "Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 31, issue 3, pages 569-586, September, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0030-9.
• Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006, "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 31, issue 3, pages 735-754, September, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y.