Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2009

• Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009, "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, volume 12, issue 1, pages 33-55, May, DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2009.01231.x.
• Michael McAleer, 2009, "The Ten Commandments For Optimizing Value‐At‐Risk And Daily Capital Charges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, volume 23, issue 5, pages 831-849, December, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00588.x.
• Francesco Audrino & Peter Bühlmann, 2009, "Splines for financial volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, volume 71, issue 3, pages 655-670, June, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00696.x.
• Pär Österholm, 2009, "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, volume 111, issue 2, pages 387-415, June, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2009.01569.x.
• Lennart Hoogerheide & Richard Kleijn & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk & Marno Verbeek, 2009, "Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time varying weight," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2009/10, Jun.
• Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009, "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2009/15, Aug.
• Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009, "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2009/16, Aug.
• Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009, "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2009/19, Nov.
• Ida Wolden Bache & Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009, "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2009/23, Nov.
• Ha-Hyun Jo & Sun-Oong Hwang, 2009, "Forecasting Economic Variables Using Disaggregated Data for Consumer Expectations: A Comparison of Forecast Combination Methods (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 15, issue 1, pages 1-38, March.
• Bauwens Luc & Storti Giuseppe, 2009, "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 13, issue 2, pages 1-33, May, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1512.
• Evarist Stoja & Arnold Polanski, 2009, "Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts with an Application to Risk Management," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, number 09/617, Dec.
• Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009, "Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy," Working Papers, Brock University, Department of Economics, number 0910, Dec, revised Oct 2010.
• Françoise Charpin, 2009, "Estimation précoce de la croissance. De la régression LARS au modèle à facteurs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, volume 0, issue 1, pages 31-48.
• Esfahani, H.S. & Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2009, "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0944, Oct.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Christoph Schleicher & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2008, "Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2231.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2009, "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2543.
• Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2009, "Hybrid Historical Simulation VaR and ES: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2820.
• Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2009, "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2843.
• M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2009, "Optimality and Diversifiability of Mean Variance and Arbitrage Pricing Portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 2857.
• Hans-Günther Vieweg & Michael Reinhard, 2009, "Guss 2020 - Perspectives for the global market for foundry products," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35.
• Tilmann Rave & Ursula Triebswetter, 2007, "Assessment of different approaches to implementation of the IPPC Directive and their impacts on competitiveness : some evidence from the steel and glass industry ; study on behalf of the European Comm," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35.
• Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009, "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, volume 10, issue 01, pages 29-44, April.
• Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr, 2009, "The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling – A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
• Christina Ziegler, 2009, "Testing Predicitive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
• Camilo SERRANO & Martin HOESLI, 2009, "Predicting Securitized Real Estate Returns: Financial and Real Estate Factors vs. Economic Variables," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 09-08, Mar.
• Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009, "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2009/2, Oct.
• E. Otranto, 2009, "Improving the Forecasting of Dynamic Conditional Correlation: a Volatility Dependent Approach," Working Paper CRENoS, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia, number 200917.
• José R. Sánchez-Fung, 2009, "Modelación de la inversión en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID.
• Eliana Gonz�lez & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009, "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5273, Feb.
• Andr�s Felipe Garc�a Suaza & Jos� Eduardo G�mez G�nzalez, 2009, "Determinantes de las fusiones y adquisiciones en el sistema financiero colombiano. 1990-2007," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5294, Feb.
• Enrique L�pez Enciso & Andr�s Salamanca Lugo, 2009, "El efecto riqueza de la vivienda en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5301, Feb.
• Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Karen Rodr�guez, 2009, "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5386, Mar.
• Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n & Freddy H. Castro & Gabriel Piraquive, 2009, "Modelo de simulaci�n del valor de la pensi�n de un trabajador en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5387, Mar.
• Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andr�s Tamayo C., 2009, "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de "fondos prestables"," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5388, Mar.
• Juan David Prada Sarmiento & Luis Eduardo Rojas Due�as, 2009, "La elasticidad de Frisch y la transmisi�n de la pol�tica monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5404, Mar.
• Jos� Eduardo G�mez G�nzlaez & Jorge Mario Uribe Gil & Hern�n Pi�eros Gordo, 2009, "Determinantes de la Rentabilidad de los Bancos en Colombia: �Importa la Tasa de Cambio?," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5405, Mar.
• Lavan Mahadeva & Javier G�mez Pineda, 2009, "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5406, Apr.
• Hernando Vargas & Andr�s Gonz�lez & Eliana Gonz�lez & Jose Vicente Romero, 2009, "Assessing Inflationary Pressures in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5473, Apr.
• Andr�s Gonz�lez G�mez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodr�guez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009, "Monetary Policy Forecasting In A Dsge Model With Data That Is Uncertain, Unbalanced And About The Future," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5480, Apr.
• Jos� Eduardo G�mez-Gonz�lez & In�s Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2009, "Estimation of Conditional Time-Homogeneous Credit Quality Transition Matrices for Commercial Banks in Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5507, Apr.
• Juan Jos� Echavarr�a & Diego V�squez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2009, "Impacto de las Intervenciones Cambiarias sobre el Nivel y la Volatilidad de la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5509, Apr.
• Jos� Eduardo G�mez Gonz�lez & Carlos Eduardo Le�n Rinc�n & Karen Julieth Leiton Rodr�guez, 2009, "Does the Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives Affect Colombian Firms� Market Value?," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5514, May.
• Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & M�nica Alexandra G�mez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2009, "La demanda de trabajo formal en Colombia: determinantes e implicaciones de pol�tica," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5518, May.
• Jos� Mauricio Salazar S�enz, 2009, "Evaluaci�n de pron�stico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 5934, Oct.
• Julio César Alonso & Juan Carlos García, 2009, "¿Qué Tan Buenos Son Los Patrones Del Igbc Para Predecir Su Comportamiento?," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi.
• Juan David Velásquez & Carlos Jaime Franco & Hernán Alonso García, 2009, "Un Modelo No Lineal Para La Predicción De La Demanda Mensual De Electricidad En Colombia," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi.
• Milena Hoyos & Johanna Ramos & Lorena Vivas, 2009, "Un modelo SETAR para el PIB Colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo, Escuela de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, number 6160, May.
• Ignacio Velez-Pareja, 2009, "Metodos de pronostico," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración, Master Consultores, number 5675, Jun.
• Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2009, "Bootstrap Confidence Bands for Forecast Paths," Working Papers, COMISEF, number 024, Dec.
• Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng, 2009, "Estimating the size of rural labour surplus in China - A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre, number g-189, Jun.
• LAURENT, Sebastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V.K. & VIOLANTE, FRANCESCO, 2009, "Consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2009002, Jan.
• SANIN, Maria Eugenia & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2009, "Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market: lessons from the future," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2009024, Apr.
• BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2009, "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2009061, Oct.
• HEINEN, Andréas & VALDESOGO, Alfonso, 2009, "Asymmetric CAPM dependence for large dimensions: the Canonical Vine Autoregressive Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2009069, Nov.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan & Pick, Andreas, 2009, "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7139, Jan.
• Kilian, Lutz & Davis, Lucas W, 2009, "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7161, Feb.
• Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2009, "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7183, Feb.
• Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009, "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7197, Mar.
• Kilian, Lutz & Hicks, Bruce, 2009, "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7265, Apr.
• Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009, "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7266, Apr.
• Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009, "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7445, Sep.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2009, "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7446, Sep.
• Den Haan, Wouter & Cai, Xiaoming, 2009, "Predicting recoveries and the importance of using enough information," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7508, Oct.
• Sargent, Thomas & Ellison, Martin, 2009, "A defence of the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7510, Oct.
• Ritschl, Albrecht & Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir, 2009, "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7546, Nov.
• Eijffinger, Sylvester & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009, "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7585, Dec.
• Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad, 2009, "Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 7610, Dec.
• Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2009, "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, number 2009-01.
• Cartea, Álvaro & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2009, "The relationship between the volatility of returns and the number of jumps in financial markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa, number wb097508, Dec.
• Sucarrat, Genaro & Escribano, Álvaro, 2009, "Automated financial multi-path GETS modelling," UC3M Working papers. Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, number we093620, Jul.
• Ramirez, Octavio A., 2009, "The Asymmetric Cycling of U.S. Soybeans and Brazilian Coffee Prices: An Opportunity for Improved Forecasting and Understanding of Price Behavior," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, volume 41, issue 1, pages 253-270, April.
• Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Simonelli, Saverio, 2009, "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, volume 210, issue , pages 90-97, October.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Geben Konjunkturprognosen eine gute Orientierung?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 76, issue 13, pages 207-213.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths, 2009, "Konjunkturelle Frühindikatoren in der Krise: weiche Faktoren stärker als harte," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 76, issue 21, pages 348-354.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure?: Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 858.
• Kerstin Bernoth & Andreas Pick, 2009, "Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 882.
• Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2009, "Does Accounting for Spatial Effects Help Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 938.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Maximilian Podstawski & Boriss Siliverstovs & Constantin Bürgi, 2009, "Google Searches as a Means of Improving the Nowcasts of Key Macroeconomic Variables," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 946.
• Nhat Le, 2009, "Volatility under Bounded Rationality," Working Papers, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam, number 63, Mar.
• Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009, "Has Economic Modelsí Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 09-06.
• Alastair Hall & Atsushi & James M Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2009, "Information Criteria For Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation Of Dsge Models," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 09-09.
• Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009, "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 09-10.
• F. Javier TRIVEZ & Angel Mauricio REYES & F. Javier ALIAGA, 2009, "MEXICAN MAQUILA INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. A Quantitative Space-Time Analysis," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, volume 9, issue 1.
• Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2009, "Forecasting Large Datasets with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Dynamic Common Factors," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2009_005.
• Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Saverio Simonelli, 2009, "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real-Time: The Role of Confidence Indicator," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number 2009_021.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009, "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2009-40.
• Diongue, Abdou Kâ & Guégan, Dominique & Vignal, Bertrand, 2009, "Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process," Applied Energy, Elsevier, volume 86, issue 4, pages 505-510, April.
• Smith, Gregor W., 2009, "Pooling forecasts in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 11, pages 1858-1866, November.
• Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009, "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 2, pages 477-490, February.
• Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009, "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 6, pages 1332-1344, June.
• Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009, "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 102, issue 3, pages 143-146, March.
• Anatolyev, Stanislav & Kosenok, Grigory, 2009, "Tests in contingency tables as regression tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 105, issue 2, pages 189-192, November.
• Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Swanson, Norman R., 2009, "Predictive density estimators for daily volatility based on the use of realized measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 150, issue 2, pages 119-138, June.
• Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009, "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 150, issue 2, pages 297-311, June.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schleicher, Christoph & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009, "Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 16, issue 2, pages 280-305, March.
• Dionne, Georges & Duchesne, Pierre & Pacurar, Maria, 2009, "Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 16, issue 5, pages 777-792, December.
• Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009, "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, volume 42, issue 4, pages 263-271, November, DOI: 10.1007/s10644-009-9071-y.
• M. Deetz & T. Poddig & I. Sidorovitch & A. Varmaz, 2009, "An evaluation of conditional multi-factor models in active asset allocation strategies: an empirical study for the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, volume 23, issue 3, pages 285-313, September, DOI: 10.1007/s11408-009-0106-1.
• Sung No & Michael Salassi, 2009, "A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, volume 15, issue 4, pages 470-482, November, DOI: 10.1007/s11294-009-9228-5.
• E.-H. Yoo & P. Kyriakidis, 2009, "Area-to-point Kriging in spatial hedonic pricing models," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, volume 11, issue 4, pages 381-406, December, DOI: 10.1007/s10109-009-0090-z.
• Matthias Burgert & Stephane Dees, 2009, "Forecasting World Trade: Direct Versus “Bottom-Up” Approaches," Open Economies Review, Springer, volume 20, issue 3, pages 385-402, July, DOI: 10.1007/s11079-007-9068-y.
• Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009, "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 32, issue 4, pages 405-419, May, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-008-0099-2.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Do forecasters inform or reassure?," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 09-215, Feb, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005778341.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Evaluating short-run forecasting properties of the KOF employment indicator for Switzerland in real time," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 09-226, May, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005817192.
• Thomas Maag, 2009, "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 09-230, Jul, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005859391.
• Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009, "Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 09-237, Sep, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005888657.
• Muhammad Handry Imansyah & Armin J. Kammel, 2009, "Forecasting Financial Crises by Applying the “Temple Model of Financial Crises” Against the Background of the Indonesian Experience," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, volume 57, pages 277-306, December.
• Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2009, "On Marginal Likelihood Computation in Change-point Models," Cahiers de recherche, CIRPEE, number 0942.
• Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2009, "On Loss Functions and Ranking Forecasting Performances of Multivariate Volatility Models," Cahiers de recherche, CIRPEE, number 0948.
• Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2009, "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an Augmented VAR-DSGE model," Working Papers, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center, number 2009-1, May.
• Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue & James M Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2009, "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester, number 127.
• Martin Mandler, 2009, "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rate Uncertainty in the U.S. 1970-2006," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 200945.
• Martin Mandler, 2009, "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MAGKS Papers on Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung), number 200947.
• Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009, "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 41, issue 2-3, pages 365-396, March.
• Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009, "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 41, issue 2-3, pages 479-489, March.
• George A. Christodoulakis & Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis, 2009, "Labour Market Dynamics in EU: a Bayesian Markov Chain Approach," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, number 2009_07, Apr, revised Apr 2009.
• Theologos Dergiades & Apostolos Dasilas, 2009, "Modelling and Forecasting Mobile Telecommunication Services: The case of Greece," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, number 2009_13, Sep, revised Sep 2009.
• MaruÅ¡ka Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009, "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 45, issue 6, pages 87-98, November.
• David Kelly & David Letson & Forest Nelson & David S. Nolan & Daniel Solis, 2009, "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers, University of Miami, Department of Economics, number 0905, Feb.
• Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2009, "The Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor Model for Dependent Variables: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 09050, Jul, revised Dec 2009.
• Alysha M De Livera & Rob J Hyndman, 2009, "Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 15/09, Dec.
• George Athanasopoulos & Osmani T. de C. Guillén & João V. Issler & Farshid Vahid, 2009, "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 2/09, Feb.
• Brendan P.M. McCabe & Gael M. Martin & David Harris, 2009, "Optimal Probabilistic Forecasts for Counts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 7/09, Aug.
• Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2009, "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14685, Jan.
• Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2009, "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 14872, Apr.
• Yoichi Okita & Wade D. Pfau & Giang Thanh Long, 2009, "A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population," GRIPS Discussion Papers, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, number 09-06, May.
• Dr. James Mitchell, 2009, "Macro Modelling with Many Models," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, number 337, Aug.
• Dr. James Mitchell, 2009, "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, number 342, Oct.
• Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009, "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, number 343, Oct.
• Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2009, "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2009/02, Apr.
• Sandra Eickmeier & Tim Ng, 2009, "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2009/04, May.
• Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009, "Measuring output gap uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2009/15, Dec.
• Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2009, "Estonia and Euro Adoption: Small Country Challenges of Joining EMU," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 728, Oct, DOI: 10.1787/220860037027.
• Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher & Tomáš Slacík & Julia Wörz, 2009, "Simple but Effective: The OeNB’s Forecasting Model for Selected CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 84-95.
• Jean-Marie Dufour & René Garcia & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2009, "Measuring High-Frequency Causality Between Returns, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 10, issue 1, pages 124-163, 2012 10 1.
• Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009, "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, volume 76, issue 2, pages 669-705.
• Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009, "A defence of the FOMC," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 457, Oct.
• Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario A. Maggi, 2009, "A Copula-VAR-X Approach for Industrial Production Modelling and Forecasting," Quaderni di Dipartimento, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, number 105, Nov.
• Kyungchul Song, 2009, "Testing Predictive Ability and Power Robustification," PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, number 09-035, Oct.
• Maria M. De Mello, 2009, "Cointegration And The Forecast Accuracy Of Var Models," CEF.UP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto, number 0902, Oct.
• Kimolo, Deogratius, 2009, "Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in Tanzania: A Univariate Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 114782, Nov.
• Khumalo, Bhekuzulu, 2009, "Revisiting the Derivative: Implications on the Rate of Change Analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 12975, Jan.
• Jing, Li, 2009, "Bootstrap prediction intervals for threshold autoregressive models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 13086, Jan.
• Renfro, Charles G, 2009, "Building and Using a Small Macroeconometric Model: Klein Model I as an Example," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 13102, Jan, revised 01 Jan 2009.
• Buncic, Daniel, 2009, "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 13121, Feb.
• Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009, "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 14387, Jan.
• Harin, Alexander, 2009, "Общая Корректирующая Формула Прогнозирования
  [General forecasting correcting formula]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 15533, Jun.
• Gan, Jumwu, 2009, "Burnout from pools to loans: Modeling refinancing prepayments as a self-selection process," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 15596, May.
• Boainain, Pedro G. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2009, "“Ombro-Cabeça-Ombro”: Testando a Lucratividade do Padrão Gráfico de Análise Técnica no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro
  [Head and Shoulder: testing the profitability of graphic pattern of technical anal," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 15653, Jan.
• Harin, Alexander, 2009, "General correcting formula of forecasting?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 15746, Jun.
• Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009, "“No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 15892, Jun.
• Berster, Peter & Gelhausen, Marc Christopher & Wilken, Dieter, 2009, "Business Aviation in Germany: An empirical and model-based analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16003.
• Kishor, N. Kundan, 2009, "Data Revisions in India and its Implications for Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16099, Jul.
• Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2009, "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16422, May.
• Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009, "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16461, Jun.
• Buncic, Daniel, 2009, "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16526, Feb.
• Bušs, Ginters, 2009, "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16684, Aug.
• Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2009, "Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16740, Jul, revised 10 Aug 2009.
• Kim, Hyeongwoo & Durmaz, Nazif, 2009, "Bias Correction and Out-of-Sample Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 16780, May.
• Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009, "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 17053, Sep.
• Bušs, Ginters, 2009, "Forecasting economy with Bayesian autoregressive distributed lag model: choosing optimal prior in economic downturn," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 17273, Sep.
• Fry, J. M., 2009, "Bubbles and contagion in English house prices," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 17687, Oct.
• Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009, "Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 17856, Aug.
• D'Amuri, Francesco/FD & Marcucci, Juri/JM, 2009, ""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18248, Oct.
• Beneki, Christina & Eeckels, Bruno & Leon, Costas, 2009, "Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series. A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18354, Sep.
• Francesco, D'Amuri, 2009, "Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18403, Oct.
• Skribans, Valerijs, 2009, "Влияние Трудовой Эмиграции На Рынок Труда В Латвии
  [Influence of Labour Migration on Latvia's Labour Market]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 18771, Oct.
• Skribans, Valerijs, 2009, "Krīzes un 2009. gada nodokļu politikas izmaiņu ietekme uz Latvijas ekonomiku
  [Influence of the Crisis and 2009 Tax Policy Changes on the Latvian Economy]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19141.
• El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009, "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19482, Dec.
• NR, Bhanumurthy & Kumawat, Lokendra, 2009, "External Shocks and the Indian Economy: Analyzing through a Small, Structural Quarterly Macroeconometric Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19776, Nov.
• Christian, Mueller-Kademann, 2009, "Puzzle solver," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 19852, Oct.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009, "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 20125, Sep.
• Skribans, Valerijs, 2009, "Būvniecības nozares prognozēšanas modelis
  [Construction branch forecasting model]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 20393, revised 2009.
• Meyler, Aidan & Rubene, Ieva, 2009, "Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 20751, Apr.
• McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez Amaral, Teodosio, 2009, "Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 20975, Sep, revised 20 Sep 2009.
• Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009, "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 21124, Dec.
• Weron, Rafal, 2009, "Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 21299.
• Tierney, Heather L.R., 2009, "Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 22409, Aug, revised Feb 2010.
• Khudnitskaya, Alesia S., 2009, "Microenvironment-specific Effects in the Application Credit Scoring Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 23175, Dec.
• Mapa, Dennis S. & Cayton, Peter Julian & Lising, Mary Therese, 2009, "Estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) using TiVEx-POT Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 25772, Dec.
• Kahloul, Ines & Ben Mabrouk, Anouar & Hallara, Salah-Eddine, 2009, "Wavelet-Based Prediction for Governance, Diversi cation and Value Creation Variables," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 26484.
• He, Zhongfang, 2009, "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 28208, Apr.
• Todd, Prono, 2009, "Simple, Skewness-Based GMM Estimation of the Semi-Strong GARCH(1,1) Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 30994, Nov, revised 30 Jul 2011.
• Bruno, Giancarlo, 2009, "Non-linear relation between industrial production and business surveys data," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 42337, Sep.
• du Jardin, Philippe, 2009, "Bankruptcy prediction models: How to choose the most relevant variables?," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 44380, Jan.
• Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis, 2009, "Eficiencia gerencial: propuesta metodológica para su medición y evaluación en el sector eléctrico de Venezuela
  [Managerial efficiency: an empirical approach to measure and evaluate it in the electr," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 58689, Aug, revised 10 Oct 2009.