Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2011

• Antonis A Michis, 2011, "Denoised least squars forecasting of GDP changes using indexes of consumer and business sentiment," IFC Bulletins chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements, "Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010".
• Fernanda Cuitiño & Fiorella Tramontin & Leonardo Vicente, 2011, "Evaluación de indicadores de inflación subyacente para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo, Banco Central del Uruguay, number 2011011, Dec.
• Jamie Hall & Jarkko P. Jääskelä, 2011, "Inflation Volatility and Forecast Accuracy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, volume 44, issue 4, pages 404-417, December, DOI: j.1467-8462.2011.00656.x.
• Edda Claus, 2011, "Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, volume 87, issue 276, pages 76-89, March.
• Alfredo García‐Hiernaux, 2011, "Forecasting linear dynamical systems using subspace methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, volume 32, issue 5, pages 462-468, September.
• Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2011, "Appreciating the Renminbi," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, volume 34, issue 2, pages 265-297, February.
• Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011, "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2011/04, Apr.
• Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2011, "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2011/06, Jun.
• Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011, "Myths and facts about the alleged over-pricing of U.S. real estate. Evidence from multi-factor asset pricing models of REIT returns," Working Paper, Norges Bank, number 2011/19, Dec.
• Do-wan Kim, 2011, "Analysis on the Effect of Foreign Factors on the Korean Bond market and Prediction using Two-country Nelson-Siegel Model (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, volume 17, issue 3, pages 89-130, September.
• Pierre Perron & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2011, "Combining Long Memory and Level Shifts in Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Asset Returns," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics, number WP2011-050, Jan.
• Kock Anders Bredahl, 2011, "Forecasting with Universal Approximators and a Learning Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 3, issue 3, pages 1-32, October, DOI: 10.2202/1941-1928.1084.
• Paulo Sérgio Ceretta & Fernanda Galvão de Barba & Kelmara Mendes Vieira & Fernando Casarin, 2011, "Intraday volatility forecasting: analysis of alternative distributions," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, volume 9, issue 2, pages 209-226.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2009, "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 0901, Jan.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011, "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 1163, Oct.
• Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2011, "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, number 1164, Dec.
• Liebermann, Joelle, 2011, "Real-Time Nowcasting of GDP: Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Research Technical Papers, Central Bank of Ireland, number 3/RT/11, Mar.
• Michael McAleer & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011, "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/05, Jan.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2011, "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/12, Feb.
• Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2011, "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/16, Apr.
• Cathy W. S. Chen & Richard Gerlach & Bruce B. K. Hwang & Michael McAleer, 2011, "Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Nonlinear Regression Quantiles and the Intra-day Range," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/22, May.
• Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011, "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/23, May.
• Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011, "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/25, Jun.
• Roberto Casarin & Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011, "Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/26, Jul.
• Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011, "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," Working Papers in Economics, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance, number 11/28, Jul.
• Pami Dua & Rajiv Ranjan, 2011, "Modelling and Forecasting the Indian Re/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Working papers, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics, number 197, Feb.
• Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011, "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3372.
• Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2011, "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 3671.
• Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011, "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," ifo Working Paper Series, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 111.
• Pablo Pincheira, 2011, "A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference About Predictive Ability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, number 607, Jan.
• Monique JEANBLANC & Didier SORNETTE, 2011, "Follow the money: The monetary roots of bubbles and crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute, number 11-62, Nov.
• Luc Bauwens & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Jeroen Rombouts, 2011, "A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution of Structural Break Models," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2011s-13, Jan.
• Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2011, "An Identification-Robust Test for Time-Varying Parameters in the Dynamics of Energy Prices," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2011s-22, Feb.
• Jean-Marie Dufour & René Garcia & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2011, "Measuring High-Frequency Causality Between Returns, Realized Volatility and Implied Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers, CIRANO, number 2011s-27, Feb.
• Zhihong Chen & Azhar Iqbal & Huiwen Lai, 2011, "Forecasting the probability of US recessions: a Probit and dynamic factor modelling approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, volume 44, issue 2, pages 651-672, May, DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01648.x.
• Luis García-Álvarez & Richard Luger, 2011, "Dynamic Correlations, Estimation Risk, and Porfolio Management During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers, CEMFI, number wp2011_1103, Apr, revised Sep 2011.
• Jakub Rysanek & Jaromir Tonner & Osvald Vasicek, 2011, "Monetary Policy Implications of Financial Frictions in the Czech Republic," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, number 2011/12, Dec.
• Fredy Alejandro Gamboa Estrada, 2011, "Determinants of the Exchange Rate in Colombia under Inflation Targeting," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7870, Jan.
• Juan Manuel Julio Rom�n, 2011, "Modeling Data Revisions," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7929, Feb.
• Juan Manuel Julio, 2011, "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7956, Feb.
• Eliana Gonz�lez, 2011, "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 7996, Feb.
• Carlos Le�n Rinc�n & Alejandro Reveiz, 2011, "Montecarlo simulation of long-term dependent processes: a primer," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8277, Apr.
• Andr�s Felipe Garc�a-Suaza & Jose Eduardo G�mez-Gonz�lez & Andr�s Murcia pab�n & Feenando tenjo Galarza, 2011, "The Cyclical Behavior of Bank Capital Buffers in an Emerging Economy: Size Does Matter," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8305, Apr.
• H�ctor Z�rate & Katherine S�nchez & Margarita Mar�n, 2011, "Cuantificaci�n de Encuestas Ordinales y Pruebas de Racionalidad: Una aplicaci�n a la Encuesta Mensual de Expectativas Econ�micas," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8327, Apr.
• Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & Jos� David Pulido, 2011, "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8328, Apr.
• Rafael Puyana & Mario Andr�s Ramos & H�ctor Z�rate, 2011, "Determinantes del subempleo en Colombia: Un enfoque a trav�s de la compensaci�n salarial," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8337, Apr.
• Sebasti�n G�mez Barrero & Juli�n Parra Polan�a, 2011, "Comportamiento estrat�gico de los bancos centrales al anunciar pron�sticos de inflaci�n," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8576, May.
• Sebasti�n G�mez Barrero & Juli�n Parra Polan�a, 2011, "Comportamiento estrat�gico de los bancos centrales al anunciar pron�sticos de inflaci�n," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8577, May.
• Javier G�mez Restrepo & Juan Manuel Hern�ndez Herrera, 2011, "Composici�n cambiaria y poder adquisitivo de las reservas internacionales," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8578, May.
• Andr�s Gonz�lez & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodr�guez, 2011, "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: PATACON Model Description," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica, number 8698, May.
• Milena Hoyos & Mario Galindo, 2011, "Comparación de los modelos SETAR y STAR para el índice de empleo industrial colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo, Escuela de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, number 8347, Apr.
• Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2011, "Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany," Working Papers, COMISEF, number 046, Jan.
• G.A.Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2011, "Labour Market Forecasting, Reliability and Workforce Development," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre, number g-225, Sep.
• BAUWENS, Luc & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K., 2011, "A comparison of forecasting procedures for macroeconomic series: the contribution of structural break models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2011003, Jan.
• BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & pierret, Diane, 2011, "Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2011011, Feb.
• KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011, "Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2011021, May.
• KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011, "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), number 2011022, May.
• Coen Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2011, "Is economic recovery a myth? Robust estimation of impulse responses," CPB Discussion Paper, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, number 131, May.
• Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2011, "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8194, Jan.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011, "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8234, Feb.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2011, "Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8273, Feb.
• Marcellino, Massimiliano & Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011, "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8321, Apr.
• Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2011, "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8327, Apr.
• Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011, "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8388, May.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2011, "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8414, Jun.
• Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011, "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8542, Aug.
• Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011, "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8604, Oct.
• Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara & Ferraro, Domenico, 2011, "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8635, Nov.
• Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2011, "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, number 8698, Dec.
• Cuevas Rumín, Ángel & Quilis, Enrique M. & Espasa, Antoni, 2011, "Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística, number ws114130, Dec.
• Eklund, J. & Kapetanios, G. & Price, S., 2011, "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Working Papers, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London, number 11/05.
• Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011, "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, volume 46, issue 5, pages 1493-1520, October.
• Ansgar Belke & Christian Gokus, 2011, "Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets before and during the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Major Financial Institutions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, number 1107.
• Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011, "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," Working Papers, Deakin University, Department of Economics, number 2011_1, Feb.
• Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2011, "On the volatility-volume relationship in energy futures markets using intraday data," EconomiX Working Papers, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX, number 2011-16.
• Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2011, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Large Datasets: Dynamic Factor Model versus Large-Scale BVARs," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, volume 46, issue 1, pages 23-40.
• Mihaela BRATU, 2011, "The Uncertainty of USA GDP Forecasts Determined by the Variables Aggregation," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 30, pages 109-122, November.
• Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2011, "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to Window Size Choice," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 11-04.
• Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011, "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 11-05.
• Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2011, "Forecast Optimality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 11-18.
• Barbara Rossi, 2011, "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers, Duke University, Department of Economics, number 11-20.
• Franziska Ohnsorge & Yevgeniya, 2011, "Forecasting growth in eastern Europe and central Asia," Working Papers, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist, number 137, Dec.
• Roxana Halbleib & Valerie Voev, 2011, "Forecasting Covariance Matrices: A Mixed Frequency Approach," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2011-002, Jan.
• Robert Kollmann & Stefan Zeugner, 2011, "Leverage as a Predictor for Real Activity and Volatility," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2011-009, Apr.
• Matteo Luciani, 2011, "Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models: the Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks," Working Papers ECARES, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, number ECARES 2011‐022, Jul.
• Charles F. Manski, 2011, "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 121, issue 554, pages 261-289, August.
• Peter R. Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2011, "The Model Confidence Set," Econometrica, Econometric Society, volume 79, issue 2, pages 453-497, March.
• Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011, "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 14, issue 1, pages 25-44, February.
• Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011, "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-19.
• Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2011, "Forecasting the European Carbon Market," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-20.
• Bauwens, Luc & Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2011, "A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-25.
• Koop, Gary, 2011, "Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-38.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011, "UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-39.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011, "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-40.
• Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2011, "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," SIRE Discussion Papers, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE), number 2011-69.
• Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011, "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, volume 55, issue 9, pages 2579-2589, September.
• Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011, "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, volume 35, issue 10, pages 1659-1670, October.
• Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011, "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1-2, pages 118-137, January.
• Akanbi, Olusegun A. & Du Toit, Charlotte B., 2011, "Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth-poverty gap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1-2, pages 335-350, January.
• Chevallier, Julien, 2011, "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1-2, pages 557-567, January.
• Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011, "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000-06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1-2, pages 647-663, January.
• Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011, "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1, pages 118-137, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.018.
• Akanbi, Olusegun A. & Du Toit, Charlotte B., 2011, "Macro-econometric modelling for the Nigerian economy: A growth–poverty gap analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1, pages 335-350, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.08.015.
• Chevallier, Julien, 2011, "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1, pages 557-567, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.016.
• Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011, "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 1, pages 647-663, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.004.
• Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011, "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 1174-1185, May.
• Yang, Hu & Wu, Xingcui, 2011, "Semiparametric EGARCH model with the case study of China stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 761-766, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.015.
• Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011, "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 3, pages 891-899, May.
• Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011, "Real-time data revisions and the PCE measure of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 4, pages 1763-1773, July.
• Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011, "UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 5, pages 2307-2318, September.
• Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua & Tan, Xiangyong, 2011, "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 6, pages 2359-2368, DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.007.
• Bloor, Chris & Matheson, Troy, 2011, "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 26-42, January.
• Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Gerdrup, Karsten & Jore, Anne Sofie & Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2011, "Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 61-76, January.
• Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011, "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, volume 22, issue 1, pages 77-87, January.
• Buchen, Teresa & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2011, "Forecasting with many predictors: Is boosting a viable alternative?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 113, issue 1, pages 16-18, October.
• McKenzie, Jordi, 2011, "Mean absolute percentage error and bias in economic forecasting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 113, issue 3, pages 259-262, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.010.
• Patton, Andrew J., 2011, "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 160, issue 1, pages 246-256, January.
• Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011, "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 163, issue 2, pages 215-230, August.
• Athanasopoulos, George & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011, "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 164, issue 1, pages 116-129, September.
• Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011, "Optimal prediction pools," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 164, issue 1, pages 130-141, September.
• Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011, "Understanding models' forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 164, issue 1, pages 158-172, September.
• Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011, "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 164, issue 1, pages 173-187, September.
• Carriero, Andrea & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2011, "How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, volume 164, issue 1, pages 21-34, September.
• Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011, "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, volume 12, issue 4, pages 443-459, DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2010.12.004.
• Stentoft, Lars, 2011, "American option pricing with discrete and continuous time models: An empirical comparison," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, volume 18, issue 5, pages 880-902, DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2011.09.004.
• Serinaldi, Francesco, 2011, "Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 6, pages 1216-1226, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.001.
• Regnard, Nazim & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2011, "A conditionally heteroskedastic model with time-varying coefficients for daily gas spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 6, pages 1240-1251, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.02.004.
• Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011, "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 1, pages 69-80, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.001.
• Proietti, Tommaso, 2011, "Direct and iterated multistep AR methods for difference stationary processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 266-280, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.014.
• Bańbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011, "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 333-346, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.011.
• Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011, "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: An application to New Zealand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 496-511, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.011.
• Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011, "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 529-542, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.006.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011, "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 822-844, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.009.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011, "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 845-849, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.03.002.
• Kim, Jae H. & Wong, Kevin & Athanasopoulos, George & Liu, Shen, 2011, "Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 887-901, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014.
• Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011, "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 4, pages 1066-1075, October.
• Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011, "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 4, pages 1076-1088, October.
• Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011, "Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 1, pages 69-80, January.
• Proietti, Tommaso, 2011, "Direct and iterated multistep AR methods for difference stationary processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 266-280, April.
• Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011, "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 333-346, April.
• Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011, "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: An application to New Zealand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 496-511, April.
• Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011, "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 2, pages 529-542, April.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011, "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 822-844, July.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011, "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 845-849, July.
• Kim, Jae H. & Wong, Kevin & Athanasopoulos, George & Liu, Shen, 2011, "Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 27, issue 3, pages 887-901, July.
• Berster, Peter & Gelhausen, Marc C. & Wilken, Dieter, 2011, "Business aviation in Germany: An empirical and model-based analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, volume 17, issue 6, pages 354-359, DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.02.005.
• Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011, "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, volume 35, issue 4, pages 807-818, April.
• Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011, "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 4, pages 623-640, June.
• López-Suárez, Carlos Felipe & Rodríguez-López, José Antonio, 2011, "Nonlinear exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 30, issue 5, pages 877-895, September.
• Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011, "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 4, pages 553-567, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.04.004.
• Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2011, "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: The ragged-edge problem and revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 4, pages 784-792, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.04.002.
• Cancelo, José Ramón & Varela, Diego & Sánchez-Santos, José Manuel, 2011, "Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 6, pages 804-820, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.08.017.
• Yuan, Chunming, 2011, "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, volume 20, issue 2, pages 342-362, April.
• Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011, "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2011-05, Mar.
• Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011, "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2011-16, Jun.
• Bovens, Luc & Rabinowicz, Wlodek, 2011, "Bets on hats: on Dutch books against groups, degrees of belief as betting rates, and group-reflection," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 49667, Oct.
• Roberta Serafini & J. Bruha & B. Pierluigi, 2011, "Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?," EcoMod2011, EcoMod, number 2970, Jul.
• Emmanuel Carré, 2011, "The Banco Central do Brasil's institutional framework after ten years," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, volume 31, issue 4, pages 594-617.
• Rafael Ramírez & Madeleine Forssell, 2011, "Incertidumbre, turbulencias y escenarios," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, volume 76, issue 01, pages 92-103.
• Rafael Ramírez & Madeleine Forssell, 2011, "Uncertainty, turbulence and scenarios," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, volume 76, issue 01, pages 92-103.
• Eduardo Bericat Alastuey & José M. Echavarren Fernández, 2011, "Travesía hacia 2020: escenarios predictivos para Andalucía," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, volume 76, issue 01, pages 242-267.
• WanChun Luo & Rui Liu, 2011, "Analysis of meat price volatility in China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, volume 3, issue 3, pages 402-411, September, DOI: 10.1108/17561371111165815.
• Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Phillip Basil, 2011, "Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios: 2011–2040," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, volume 3, issue 1, pages 59-110, January.
• McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2011, "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2011-04, Jan.
• Asai, M. & McAleer, M.J. & Medeiros, M., 2011, "Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2011-05, Jan.
• Chang, C-L. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & McAleer, M.J. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2011, "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2011-11, Feb.
• Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2011, "Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation," Econometric Institute Research Papers, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute, number EI 2011-18, May.