Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes

1. Forecasting

2015

• Eduard Baitinger & Christian Fieberg & Thorsten Poddig & Armin Varmaz, 2015, "Liquidity-driven approach to dynamic asset allocation: evidence from the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, volume 29, issue 4, pages 365-379, November, DOI: 10.1007/s11408-015-0257-1.
• Bianca Frogner & Joanne Spetz & Stephen Parente & Shelley Oberlin, 2015, "The demand for health care workers post-ACA," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, volume 15, issue 1, pages 139-151, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10754-015-9168-y.
• Khaled Makhloufi & Bruno Ventelou & Mohammad Abu-Zaineh, 2015, "Have health insurance reforms in Tunisia attained their intended objectives?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, volume 15, issue 1, pages 29-51, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10754-014-9157-6.
• Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou & Natasa Todorovic, 2015, "Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, volume 45, issue 2, pages 251-278, August, DOI: 10.1007/s11156-014-0436-6.
• Mihaela Simionescu & Mirela Niculae, 2015, "Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, volume 1, issue 1, pages 35-44, March.
• Jing Zeng, 2015, "Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2015-11, May.
• Sandra Stankiewicz, 2015, "Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables with Bayesian Adaptive Elastic Net," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2015-12, May.
• Fady Barsoum, 2015, "Point and Density Forecasts Using an Unrestricted Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, number 2015-19, Sep.
• Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2015, "Inflation as a Global Phenomenon—Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, number 1520, Oct.
• Stefan Neuwirth, 2015, "Ein Kurzfristindikatormodell für Prognosen der internationalen Konjunktur," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, volume 9, issue 2, pages 31-41, June, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569.
• Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015, "Think national, forecast local: A case study of 71 German urban housing markets," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-372, Feb, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010385518.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015, "Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-375, Mar, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010399937.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015, "Dissecting the purchasing managers' index," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-376, Mar, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010402982.
• Heiner F. Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth, 2015, "Real-Time Forecasting with a MIDAS VAR," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-377, Apr, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010414894.
• Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele, 2015, "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-378, Apr, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010416189.
• Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015, "Dissecting Models' Forecasting Performance," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, number 15-397, Nov, DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-010692101.
• Vékás, Péter & Bajkó, Attila & Maknics, Anita & Tóth, Krisztián, 2015, "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságáról
  [On the sustainability of the Hungarian pension system - the long-term effects of demographic trends]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 12, pages 1229-1257, DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1229.
• Vékás, Péter, 2015, "Az egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslése mikroszimulációs modellkeretben
  [Estimating individual labor market activity in Hungary in a microsimulation framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 12, pages 1291-1308, DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1291.
• Kovács, Erzsébet & Vékás, Péter & Rétallér, Orsolya, 2015, "Modellpontok szerepe a nyugdíj-hatásvizsgálatban
  [Model-point grouping in pension impact studies]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 12, pages 1328-1342, DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1328.
• Gál, Róbert Iván & Törzsök, Árpád, 2015, "Háztartás-formálódás a MIDAS modellben
  [Household formation in the MIDAS-HU model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), volume 0, issue 12, pages 1343-1358, DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2015.12.1343.
• Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015, "Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, volume 2, issue 4, pages 460-466, December.
• Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015, "Mathematics of Predicting Growth," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, volume 2, issue 4, pages 222-238, December.
• Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015, "The Insecure Future of the World Economic Growth," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, volume 2, issue 4, pages 242-255, December.
• Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015, "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Discussion Papers in Economics, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, number 15/07, May.
• Julius Stakenas, 2015, "Forecasting Lithuanian Inflation," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series, Bank of Lithuania, number 17, Jan.
• Andrejs Bessonovs, 2015, "Suite of Latvia's GDP forecasting models," Working Papers, Latvijas Banka, number 2015/01, Jul.
• Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2015, "ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures," Working Papers LuissLab, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli, number 15120.
• Henzel Steffen R. & Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015, "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, volume 66, issue 1, pages 71-98, April, DOI: 10.1515/roe-2015-0105.
• Mark C. Greeman & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2015, "Declining discount rates and the ‘Fisher Effect’: Inflated past, discounted future?," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, number 2015_01, Jan, revised Jan 2015.
• Václav Klepáč, 2015, "Default Probability Prediction with Static Merton-D-Vine Copula Model," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, volume 1, issue 2, pages 104-113, DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.v1i2.30.
• Kirsten Thompson & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 51, issue 3, pages 486-501, May, DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1025664.
• Karunanithy Banumathy & Ramachandran Azhagaiah, 2015, "Modelling Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from India," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, volume 13, issue 1 (Spring, pages 27-41.
• Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015, "Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, number 298, Apr, revised Apr 2015.
• Andrea BASTIANIN & Marzio GALEOTTI & Matteo MANERA, 2015, "Forecasting the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship: Should We Care about the Rockets and the Feathers?," Departmental Working Papers, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, number 2015-23, Dec.
• Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015, "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne, number 1191, May.
• Tomasz Wozniak, 2015, "Granger-causal analysis of GARCH models: a Bayesian approach," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne, number 1194, May.
• Szabolcs Szentmihályi & Balázs Világi, 2015, "The Phillips curve – history of thought and empirical evidence," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), volume 14, issue 4, pages 5-38.
• Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2015, "Forecasting VARs, model selection, and shrinkage," Working Papers, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, number 15-07.
• Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015, "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Economics, number 06-15, Jan.
• Anil Alpman, 2015, "Implementing Rubin's Alternative Multiple Imputation Method for Statistical Matching in Stata," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 15008, Jan.
• Antoine Kornprobst & Raphael Douady, 2015, "A Practical Approach to Financial Crisis Indicators Based on Random Matrices," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 15049, Jun.
• Matthieu Garcin & Clément Goulet, 2015, "A fully non-parametric heteroskedastic model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 15086, Sep.
• Matthieu Garcin & Clément Goulet, 2015, "Non-parameteric news impact curve: a variational approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 15086r, Sep, revised Jul 2016.
• Matthieu Garcin & Clément Goulet, 2015, "Non-parameteric news impact curve: a variational approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, number 15086rr, Sep, revised Feb 2017.
• Christoph Bergmeir & Rob J Hyndman & Bonsoo Koo, 2015, "A Note on the Validity of Cross-Validation for Evaluating Time Series Prediction," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 10/15.
• Shanika L Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2015, "Forecasting hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 15/15.
• George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Fotios Petropoulos, 2015, "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 16/15.
• Ahmad Farid Osman & Maxwell L. King, 2015, "A new approach to forecasting based on exponential smoothing with independent regressors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, number 2/15.
• Harry Vander Elst, 2015, "FloGARCH : Realizing long memory and asymmetries in returns volatility," Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium, number 280, Apr.
• Tomasz Skoczylas, 2015, "Log-volatility enhanced GARCH models for single asset returns," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, volume 46, issue 5, pages 411-432.
• Aleksandra Hałka & Karol Szafranek, 2015, "Whose inflation is it anyway? The inflation spillovers between the euro area and small open economies," NBP Working Papers, Narodowy Bank Polski, number 223.
• Alberto Alesina & Omar Barbiero & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Matteo Paradisi, 2015, "Austerity in 2009-2013," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20827, Jan.
• Patrick Bajari & Denis Nekipelov & Stephen P. Ryan & Miaoyu Yang, 2015, "Demand Estimation with Machine Learning and Model Combination," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 20955, Feb.
• Hunt Allcott & Judd B. Kessler, 2015, "The Welfare Effects of Nudges: A Case Study of Energy Use Social Comparisons," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21671, Oct.
• Travkin, A., 2015, "Estimating Pair-Copula Constructions Using Empirical Tail Dependence Functions: an Application to Russian Stock Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, volume 25, issue 1, pages 39-55.
• C. GEAY & M. KOUBI & G. de LAGASNERIE, 2015, "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure, a dynamic micro-simulation using the Destinie model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, number g2015-15.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2015, "The Accuracy Analysis of Inflation Rate Forecasts in Euro Area," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, volume 3, issue 1, pages 80-85, May.
• Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015, "Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1216, May, DOI: 10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en.
• Rauf Gönenç & Béatrice Guérard & Isabelle Hassler & Andreas Wörgötter, 2015, "Austria's separate gender roles model was popular in the past, but is becoming a constraint for comprehensive wellbeing," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1272, Dec, DOI: 10.1787/5jrp2s53tglp-en.
• Volker Ziemann, 2015, "Towards more gender equality in Austria," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 1273, Dec, DOI: 10.1787/5jrp2s4pfbnp-en.
• Patrice Ollivaud & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2015, "Does the post-crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, volume 2015, issue 1, pages 269-267, DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2015-5jrq9tzbwk.
• Daniela Bragoli & Luca Metelli & Michele Modugno, 2015, "The importance of updating: Evidence from a Brazilian nowcasting model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2015, issue 1, pages 5-22, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl958gmp.
• Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2015, "What's behind the survey values?: An analysis of individual forecasters' behaviour," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, volume 2014, issue 2, pages 25-43, DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jrxqbwckbzv.
• Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Marcel Tirpák & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2015, "Bridging the information gap: small-scale nowcasting models of GDP growth for selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 56-75.
• Jonas Dovern & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2015, "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Working Papers, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), number 200, Mar.
• Daisuke Nagakura & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2015, "A State Space Approach to Estimating the Integrated Variance under the Existence of Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 13, issue 1, pages 45-82.
• Piotr Kokoszka & Hong Miao & Xi Zhang, 2015, "Functional Dynamic Factor Model for Intraday Price Curves," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 13, issue 2, pages 456-477.
• Laurent E. Calvet & Veronika Czellar, 2015, "Accurate Methods for Approximate Bayesian Computation Filtering," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, volume 13, issue 4, pages 798-838.
• Dashan Huang & Fuwei Jiang & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2015, "Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, volume 28, issue 3, pages 791-837.
• Raluca Podasca, 2015, "The Role of the Forecast in the Company’s Management," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, volume 0, issue 2, pages 341-348, May.
• Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2015, "Asia’s Evolving Role in Global Wine Markets," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, number 2015-07.
• Anna Leszczylowska, 2015, "Microsimulation as an instrument for tax policy analyses," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, volume 11, issue 1, pages 14-27, April.
• Milena Lipovina-Bozovic & Julija Cerovic & Sasa Vujosevic, 2015, "Forecasting inflation in Montenegro using univariate time series models," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, volume 11, issue 1, pages 51-63, April.
• Tomasz Jasinski & Agnieszka Scianowska, 2015, "Security Assessment And Optimization Of Energy Supply (Neural Networks Approach)," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, volume 6, issue 2, pages 129-141, June, DOI: 10.12775/OeC.2015.016.
• Laila Taskeen Qazi & Atta Ur Rahman & Saleem Gul, 2015, "Which Pairs of Stocks should we Trade? Selection of Pairs for Statistical Arbitrage and Pairs Trading in Karachi Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, volume 54, issue 3, pages 215-244.
• Bentour, El Mostafa, 2015, "A ranking of VAR and structural models in forecasting," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 61502, Jan.
• Vasios, Michalis & Payne, Richard & Nolte, Ingmar, 2015, "Profiting from Mimicking Strategies in Non-Anonymous Markets," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 61710.
• Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mwamba, Muteba, 2015, "A multivariate model for the prediction of stock returns in an emerging market: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62028, Feb.
• LI, XI HAO & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015, "Stock-Flow Dynamic Projection," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62047, Jan.
• Berg, Tim Oliver, 2015, "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62405, Feb.
• Medel, Carlos & Pincheira, Pablo, 2015, "The Out-of-sample Performance of an Exact Median-Unbiased Estimator for the Near-Unity AR(1) Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62552, Mar.
• Medel, Carlos, 2015, "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62609, Mar.
• Djennad, Abdelmajid & Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios & Eilers, Paul, 2015, "Beyond location and dispersion models: The Generalized Structural Time Series Model with Applications," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 62807, Mar.
• Mehdiyev, Mehdi & Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2015, "Ölkə iqtisadiyyatı üzrə göstəricilərin modelləşdirilməsi və proqnozlaşdırılması: problemlər və praktiki çətinliklər
  [Modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables of the national economy: problems and practical issues]," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 63517, Mar.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015, "Information money fields of cyclic oscillations in nonlinear dynamic economic system," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 63564, Apr.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015, "Information money fields of cyclic oscillations in nonlinear dynamic economic system," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 63565, Apr.
• Henzel, Steffen & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2015, "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 63714, Apr.
• Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015, "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65290, Jun.
• Naser, Hanan & Alaali, Fatema, 2015, "Can Oil Prices Help Predict US Stock Market Returns: An Evidence Using a DMA Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65295, Jan, revised 25 Jun 2015.
• Cazotto, Gabriel, 2015, "Oil – The Earth’s blood, a paper on how to recover its critical declining prices by using a hedge vaccine through a leading core of countries termed as VIRUS," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65370, Jul.
• AMMOURI, Bilel & TOUMI, Hassen & Zitouna, Habib, 2015, "Forecasting Inflation in Tunisia Using Dynamic Factors Model," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65514, Jul.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2015, "A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65665, Jul.
• Perederiy, Volodymyr, 2015, "Endogenous derivation and forecast of lifetime PDs," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65679, Jul.
• Bersimis, Sotirios & Degiannakis, Stavros & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2015, "Real Time Monitoring of Carbon Monoxide Using Value-at-Risk Measure and Control Charting," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65865, Jan.
• Zeng, Xiangyu & Zeng, Zhezhao, 2015, "Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 65895, Jul, revised 14 Aug 2015.
• Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2015, "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66362, Aug.
• Qian, Hang, 2015, "Inequality Constrained State Space Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66447, Sep.
• Bartolucci, Francesco & Pennoni, Fulvia & Vittadini, Giorgio, 2015, "Causal latent Markov model for the comparison of multiple treatments in observational longitudinal studies," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66492, Aug.
• Dahem, Ahlem, 2015, "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66702, Sep.
• Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015, "Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66759, Sep.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015, "Quantum microeconomics theory," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 66983, Sep.
• Medel, Carlos A., 2015, "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67081, Oct.
• Fantazzini, Dean & Toktamysova, Zhamal, 2015, "Forecasting German Car Sales Using Google Data and Multivariate Models," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67110.
• Zafar, Raja Fawad & Qayyum, Abdul & Ghouri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2015, "Forecasting Inflation using Functional Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67208, Mar.
• Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015, "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67470, Oct.
• Wohlrabe, Klaus & Bührig, Pascal, 2015, "Forecasting Revisions of German Industrial Production," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67513, Oct.
• Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2015, "Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67608, Nov.
• Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel, 2015, "An econometric investigation of forecasting liquefied petroleum gas in Ghana," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 67834, Jul.
• Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Eeckels, Bruno & Filis, George, 2015, "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68062, Nov.
• Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2015, "The role of component-wise boosting for regional economic forecasting," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68186, Dec, revised 03 Dec 2015.
• Monokroussos, George, 2015, "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68594, Nov.
• Yılmaz, Engin, 2015, "Forecasting tourist arrivals to Turkey," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 68616, Dec.
• Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2015, "Complex Exponential Smoothing," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 69394, May.
• Asongu, Simplice A & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., 2015, "Foreign aid instability and bundled governance dynamics in Africa," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 71783, Dec.
• Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Palaiodimos, George, 2015, "Investments and uncertainty revisited: The case of the US economy," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72083, Jul.
• Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2015, "Forecasting implied volatility indices worldwide: A new approach," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72084, Sep.
• Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2015, "Key sectors after a decade of transformation: Evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 72739, Jun.
• Matkovskyy, Roman & Bouraoui, Taoufik & Hammami, Helmi, 2015, "Estimation and prediction of an Index of Financial Safety of Tunisia," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 74573, revised 2016.
• Degiannakis, Stavros, 2015, "A Probit Model for the State of the Greek GDP Growth," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 96280.
• Thomas Lux & Mawuli K. Segnon & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "Modeling and Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility: Evidence from Historical and Recent Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201511, Mar.
• Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "Forecasting the US CPI: Does Nonlinearity Matter?," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201512, Mar.
• Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015, "Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201518, Mar.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "The Role of News-Based Uncertainty Indices in Predicting Oil Markets: A Hybrid Nonparametric Quantile Causality Method," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201522, Apr.
• Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2015, "The Role of Oil Prices in the Forecasts of South African Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201531, May.
• Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2015, "A Nonlinear Approach for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility with the Use of Investor Sentiment Indices," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201536, Jun.
• Stelios Bekiros & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar, 2015, "Incorporating Economic Policy Uncertainty in US Equity Premium Models: A Nonlinear Predictability Analysis," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201545, Jun.
• Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "The Informational Content of the Term-Spread in Forecasting the U.S. Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201548, Jun.
• Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2015, "Predicting Global Temperature Anomaly: A Definitive Investigation Using an Ensemble of Twelve Competing Forecasting Models," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201561, Aug.
• Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Rangan Gupta, 2015, "The Dynamic Impact of Uncertainty in Causing and Forecasting the Distribution of Oil Returns and Risk," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201564, Sep.
• Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2015, "Forecasting Output Growth using a DSGE-Based Decomposition of the South African Yield Curve," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201567, Sep.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2015, "South African Stock Returns Predictability using Domestic and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201570, Oct.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2015, "Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility with Investor Sentiment Indices: A Reconsideration using a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201575, Oct.
• Nikolaos Antonakakis & Vassilios Babalos & Clement Kyei, 2015, "Predictability of Sustainable Investments and the Role of Uncertainty: Evidence from a Non-Parametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201576, Oct.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ricardo M. Sousa & Mark E. Wohar, 2015, "The Predictability of cay and cayMS for Stock and Housing Returns: A Nonparametric Causality in Quantile Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201577, Oct.
• Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson & Mark E. Wohar, 2015, "Forecasting Key US Macroeconomic Variables with a Factor-Augmented Qual VAR," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201585, Nov.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Won Joong Kim & Clement Kyei, 2015, "The Role of Domestic and Global Economic Policy Uncertainties in Predicting Stock Returns and their Volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201586, Nov.
• Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2015, "Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR using over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201589, Dec.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015, "Does Uncertainty Move the Gold Price? New Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201592, Dec.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2015, "Predicting South African Equity Premium using Domestic and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Indices: Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Model," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201596, Dec.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015, "On Exchange-Rate Movements and Gold-Price Fluctuations: Evidence for Gold-Producing Countries from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201598, Dec.
• Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark Wohar, 2015, "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics, number 201599, Dec.
• Pavol Krasnovský, 2015, "Estimating the Value-at-Risk from High-frequency Data," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2015, issue 2, pages 5-11, DOI: 10.18267/j.efaj.138.
• Igor Paholok, 2015, "Credit Value Adjustment and Economic Motivation to Trade on PXE," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2015, issue 3, pages 245-259, DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.517.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2015, "The Improvement of Unemployment Rate Predictions Accuracy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2015, issue 3, pages 274-286, DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.519.
• Václav Rybáček, 2015, "Vliv trhu mezistatků na úspěšnost prognóz ekonomické aktivity
  [Influence of the Intermediate Goods Market on the Success of Economic Activity Forecasts]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, volume 2015, issue 3, pages 331-346, DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1006.
• João Valle e Azevedo & Inês Maria Gonçalves, 2015, "Macroeconomic Forecasting Starting from Survey Nowcasts," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department, number w201502.
• Thomas Brenner & Marco Capasso & Matthias Duschl & Koen Frenken & Tania Treibich, 2015, "Causal Relations between Knowledge-Intensive Business Services and Regional Employment Growth," Working Papers on Innovation and Space, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography, number 2015-04, Dec.
• Alicia N. Rambaldi & Ryan R. J. McAllister & Cameron S. Fletcher, 2015, "Decoupling land values in residential property prices: smoothing methods for hedonic imputed price indices," Discussion Papers Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia, number 549, Sep.
• Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015, "Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 759, Nov.
• Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015, "A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 769, Dec.
• Ana Beatriz Galvão & Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Katerina Petrova, 2015, "A Bayesian Local Likelihood Method for Modelling Parameter Time Variation in DSGE Models," Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, number 770, Dec.
• Karen Poghosyan, 2015, "Alternative models for forecasting the key macroeconomic variables in Armenia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 25-39, May.
• R Herrera & Adam Clements, 2015, "Point process models for extreme returns: Harnessing implied volatility," NCER Working Paper Series, National Centre for Econometric Research, number 104, May.
• León, María de Fátima & Vargas, Astrid & Winkelried, Diego, 2015, "Crisis bancarias como eventos infrecuentes," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 30, pages 73-90.
• Éric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2015, "Long-term Portfolio Allocation Based on Long-term Macro forecasts," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 134, pages 62-69, January-F.
• Michael P. Clements, 2015, "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2015-02, Jan.
• Michael Clements, 2015, "Forecasters' Disagreement about How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-run Relationships," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance, Henley Business School, University of Reading, number icma-dp2015-09, Nov.
• Marc Giannoni & Christina Patterson & Marco Del Negro, 2015, "The Forward Guidance Puzzle," 2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 1529.
• Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2015, "Nowcasting Indonesia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Asian Development Bank, number 471, Dec.
• Petr Parshakov, 2015, "Estimation of skill of Russian mutual fund managers," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 37, issue 1, pages 57-66.
• Ilya Tetin, 2015, "Underwriting cycle in Russia and macroeconomic indicators," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), volume 39, issue 3, pages 65-83.
• Karen M. Martínez Torrico & Javier Aliaga Lordemann, 2015, "Revisión de Modelos Energéticos," Documentos de trabajo, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, number 6/2015, Jun.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2015, "A Comparative Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy In Spain And Romania," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, volume 6, issue 1, pages 67-74.
• Aidil Rizal SHAHRIN, 2015, "Has Nonlinearity Resolved The A Nomaly Of Unit Root Behaviour In Forward Discount ? New Empirical Evidence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 1, pages 70-80, March.
• Corina SAMAN, 2015, "Out-Of-Sample Forecasting Performance Of A Robust Neural Exchange Rate Model Of Ron/Usd," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 1, pages 93-106, March.
• Emilian Dobrescu, 2015, "Net Indirect Taxes and Sectoral Structure of Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 2, pages 5-29, June.
• Emilian Dobrescu, 2015, "Comparative Price Level (Cpl) – A Representative Parameter of Economic Convergence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, volume 0, issue 4, pages 7-28, December.
• Mihaela Simionescu, 2015, "A New Technique based on Simulations for Improving the Inflation Rate Forecasts in Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, number 150206, Feb.
• Mariana BĂLAN & Brînduşa-Mihaela RADU, 2015, "Analysis and Forecast of Romania’s Population Ageing by Non-Linear Methods," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, number 150820, Aug.
• Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Stefano Falorsi, 2015, "Using Google Trend Data To Predict The Italian Unemployment Rate," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre', Department of Economics - University Roma Tre, number 0203, Dec.
• Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015, "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CEIS Research Paper, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, number 340, Apr, revised 10 Apr 2015.
• Bart Cockx & Stijn Baert, 2015, "Contracting Out Mandatory Counselling And Training For Long-Term Unemployed. Private For-Profit Or Non-Profit, Or Keep It Public?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, number 15/913, Oct.
• Witold Koziñski & Tomasz Œwist, 2015, "Short-Term Currency In Circulation Forecasting For Monetary Policy Purposes – The Case Of Poland," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, volume 11, issue 1, pages 65-74, August.
• Wiktor Patena & Bart³omiej Kaszyk, 2015, "Commercialization as a recommended approach to hospital restructuring. Case study of £añcut Medical Center," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, volume 11, issue 2, pages 32-46, October.
• Zhanglong Wang & Kent Wang & Zheyao Pan, 2015, "Conditional equity risk premia and realized variance jump risk," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, volume 40, issue 2, pages 295-317, May, DOI: 10.1177/0312896214526602.
• Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2015, "On the Relationship of Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: A Sub-period Analysis of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, volume 14, issue 2, pages 140-175, August, DOI: 10.1177/0972652715584266.
• Vipul Kumar Singh, 2015, "Conjoint Analysis of Option and Volatility Models," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, volume 14, issue 3, pages 258-289, December, DOI: 10.1177/0972652714567997.
• Aadil Nakhoda, 2014, "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 10, pages 21-49.
• Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015, "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, volume 11, pages 1-42.
• Морнова Ю.В., 2015, "Инструменты исследования состояния рынка молочной продукции в Иркутской области. Instruments of research of the condition of the market dairy products of the Irkutsk region," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, volume 15, issue 4, pages 41-46.
• Amaia Jone BETZUEN à LVAREZ & Amancio BETZUEN ZALBIDEGOITIA, 2015, "La modelización de los cambios en la longevidad de la población del País Vasco y su estimación futura," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., volume 24, issue 2, pages 45-54.
• Dimitra Lamprou, 2015, "Nowcasting GDP in Greece: A Note on Forecasting Improvements from the Use of Bridge Models," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, volume 13, issue 1, pages 85-100.
• Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015, "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, number 402, Apr.
• Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku & Nonofo Phokontsi & Daniel Metsileng, 2015, "Forecasting South African Gold Sales: The Box-Jenkins Methodology," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, number 2704589, Sep.