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Learning to Believe in Sunspots

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Cited by:

  1. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
  2. Guido Ascari & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Coherence without Rationality at the ZLB," DEM Working Papers Series 212, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  3. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "Market Efficiencies and Market Risks," Post-Print halshs-00544324, HAL.
  5. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
  6. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
  7. Crawford, VP, 2014. "Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt04h694rz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
  9. Baranowski, Ryan, 2015. "Adaptive learning and monetary exchange," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
  10. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.
  11. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
  12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
  14. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
  15. Alan Kirman, 2014. "Is it rational to have rational expectations?," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(1), pages 29-48, June.
  16. Joao Ricardo Faria, 2004. "Small departures from rationality magnify fluctuations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(5), pages 1-5.
  17. Huberto M. Ennis & Todd Keister, 2001. "Optimal policy with probabilistic equilibrium selection," Working Paper 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  18. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  19. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Nonparametric Adaptive Learning with Feedback," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 190-222, September.
  20. Joseph Macri & Dipendra Sinha, 2000. "Output variability and economic growth: The case of Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 275-282, September.
  21. Bogliacino, Francesco & Codagnone, Cristiano, 2021. "Microfoundations, behaviour, and evolution: Evidence from experiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 372-385.
  22. Jasmina Arifovic, 2019. "Evolution of sunspot like behavior in the agent based economies of bank runs," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 365-389, March.
  23. Tony Caporale & Barbara McKiernan, 1998. "The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time‐Series Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 765-771, January.
  24. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(May), pages 203-217.
  25. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
  26. Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
  27. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
  28. Huberto Ennis & Todd Keister, 2000. "Government Policy and Probabilistic Equilibrium Selection," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1148, Econometric Society.
  29. Broseta, Bruno, 2000. "Adaptive Learning and Equilibrium Selection in Experimental Coordination Games: An ARCH(1) Approach," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-50, July.
  30. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
  31. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  32. Goenka, Aditya & Kelly, David L. & Spear, Stephen E., 1998. "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-125, July.
  33. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
  34. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
  35. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants," NBER Working Papers 10999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. George W Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce McGough, 2019. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 821-852.
  37. Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013. "Robustness and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
  38. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
  39. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  40. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Monetary policy and self-fulfilling expectations: the danger of forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 9-19.
  41. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  42. Jan-Oliver Menz, 2010. "Uncertainty, social norms and consumption theory: Post and New Keynesian approaches," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 125-146.
  43. M. Feldman, 2010. "An Example of Convergence to Rational Expectation With Heterogeneous Beliefs," Levine's Working Paper Archive 215, David K. Levine.
  44. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  45. Julio Dávila, 2008. "The rationality of expectations formation and excess volatility," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08019, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  46. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
  47. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 445-459.
  48. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-1045, September.
  49. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
  50. Negroni, Giorgio, 2005. "Eductive expectations coordination on deterministic cycles in an economy with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 931-952, May.
  51. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Does a constant money growth rule help stabilize inflation?: experimental evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-156, December.
  52. Helmut Wagner, 2007. "Information and Uncertainty in the Theory of Monetary Policy," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2007/1 edited by Morten Balling, May.
  53. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2004. "Learning and the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 327-338, March.
  54. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June.
  55. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Kirman, Alan & Pezanis-Christou, Paul, 2018. "Observational and reinforcement pattern-learning: An exploratory study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-21.
  56. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-41, February.
  57. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  58. Huberto M. Ennis, 2005. "Complementariedades y Política Macroeconómica," IIE, Working Papers 054, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  59. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
  60. Filippin, Antonio, 2003. "Discrimination and Workers' Expectations: Experimental Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 824, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  61. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
  62. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 887-907.
  63. Serena Wang & Michael I. Jordan & Katrina Ligett & R. Preston McAfee, 2024. "Information Elicitation in Agency Games," Papers 2402.14005, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
  64. V. P. Crawford, 2014. "Boundedly rational versus optimization-based models of strategic thinking and learning in games," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
  65. Cho, In-Koo, 2001. "Convergence of Least Squares Learning in Self-Referential Discontinuous Stochastic Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 78-114, November.
  66. Michelle Baddeley, 2017. "Keynes’ psychology and behavioural macroeconomics: Theory and policy," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 28(2), pages 177-196, June.
  67. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2002. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 683-692, January.
  68. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
  69. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Alan Kirman & Paul Pezanis-Christou, 2016. "Counter Intuitive Learning: An Exploratory Study," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2016-12, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
  70. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Growth versus Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What It Wants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1025-1058, June.
  71. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1993. "Learning in a large square economy," Working Papers 1994-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  72. Roger Guesnerie, 2006. "General Equilibrium, Co-ordination and Multiplicity on Spot Markets," Chapters, in: Richard Arena & Agnès Festré (ed.), Knowledge, Beliefs and Economics, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  73. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
  74. Arifovic, Jasmina & Hommes, Cars & Salle, Isabelle, 2019. "Learning to believe in simple equilibria in a complex OLG economy - evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 106-182.
  75. Gauthier, Stephane, 2002. "Determinacy and Stability under Learning of Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 354-374, February.
  76. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
  77. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  78. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  79. Pedro Gil, 2013. "Animal spirits and the composition of innovation in a lab-equipment R&D model with transition," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, January.
  80. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy and stable indeterminacy with inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-7, April.
  81. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
  82. Gaetano Gaballo & Ryan Chahrour, 2015. "On the Nature and Stability of Sentiments," 2015 Meeting Papers 469, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  83. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
  84. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
  85. Pedro Rui Mazeda Gil, 2009. "Animal Spirits and the Composition of Innovation in a Lab-Equipment R&D Model," FEP Working Papers 336, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  86. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
  87. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Diogo Martins Esteves, 2018. "Monetary authority's transparency and income inequality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 202-227, November.
  88. Falk, Armin & Dohmen, Thomas J & Sunde, Uwe & Huffman, David, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  89. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Laurent Laloux & M. Augusta Miceli & Marc Potters, 2005. "Large dimension forecasting models and random singular value spectra," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500066, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  90. Jeffery D. Amato & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Communication and Monetary Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 495-503.
  91. Michelle Baddeley, 2014. "Rethinking the micro-foundations of macroeconomics: insights from behavioural economics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 99-112, April.
  92. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2275, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  93. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
  94. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Convergence of learning algorithms without a projection facility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 59-86, August.
  95. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  96. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  97. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  98. Ellison, Martin & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1500-1519, July.
  99. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  100. Guerrazzi, Marco, 2012. "The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib–Farmer condition for indeterminacy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1489-1497.
  101. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
  102. J. Barkley Rosser, 2003. "A Nobel Prize for Asymmetric Information: The economic contributions of George Akerlof, Michael Spence and Joseph Stiglitz," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 3-21.
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  113. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1998. "Sunspot equilibria and periodic cycles under idiosyncratic uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-138, July.
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  133. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Maldonado, Wilfredo Fernando Leiva, 2001. "A note on learning chaotic sunspot equilibrium," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 423, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
  134. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
  135. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
  136. Marsili, Matteo & Challet, Damien & Zecchina, Riccardo, 2000. "Exact solution of a modified El Farol's bar problem: Efficiency and the role of market impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 280(3), pages 522-553.
  137. Weder, Mark, 2003. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 65-81, March.
  138. Arifovic, Jasmina & Evans, George W. & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2020. "Are sunspots learnable? An experimental investigation in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  139. Sandroni, Alvaro, 1998. "Learning, Rare Events, and Recurrent Market Crashes in Frictionless Economies without Intrinsic Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-18, September.
  140. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
  141. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
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  143. Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson & Myles Callan, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 239-265, October.
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