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Citations for "Inflation forecast uncertainty"

by Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul

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  1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Söderlind, Paul, 2005. "C-CAPM Without Ex Post Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2720, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451, April.
  6. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2006. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 1667, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  8. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "The C-CAPM without ex post data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 721-729, December.
  9. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-064, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  10. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 60, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  11. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
  12. ARATA Yoshiyuki & KIMURA Yosuke & MURAKAMI Hiroki, 2015. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Lumpy Investment under Uncertainty," Discussion papers 15120, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  13. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  14. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
  15. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  17. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  18. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
  19. Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Mihaela Simionescu & Irina Dragan, 2016. "The Evaluation Of Quarterly Forecast Intervals For Inflation Rate In Romania," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 80-89, May.
  21. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Nash and volatile inflation," Bank of England working papers 330, Bank of England.
  22. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Sheng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," CESifo Working Paper Series 5468, CESifo Group Munich.
  23. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
  24. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Why disagreement may not matter (much) for asset prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 73-82, June.
  25. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2006. "Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1043, June.
  26. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  27. Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, 01.
  29. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Staff Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
  31. Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
  32. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  33. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0612, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  34. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2008. "Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2337-2351.
  36. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2014. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Working Paper Series 1679, European Central Bank.
  37. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  38. Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall.
  39. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
  40. Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 365-388, August.
  41. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  42. Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
  43. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
  44. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
  45. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
  46. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  47. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
  48. Thomas Maag & Michael J. Lamla, 2009. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals," KOF Working papers 09-223, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  49. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2008. "Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  50. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  51. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
  52. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
  53. Badarinza, Cristian & Buchmann, Marco, 2011. "Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations," Working Paper Series 1407, European Central Bank.
  54. Volker Wieland, 2012. "Model comparison and robustness: a proposal for policy analysis after the financial crisis," Chapters, in: What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 2, pages 33-67 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  55. Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter & Kai D. Schmid, 2009. "The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 320/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  56. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts," Discussion Papers 06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  57. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  58. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  59. Kuang-Liang Chang & Chi-Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, 03.
  60. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "Cross-sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," Working Papers 0574, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  61. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
  62. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
  63. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  64. Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2003. "Is There Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel," CEPR Discussion Papers 4068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2009. "Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"," NBER Working Papers 15024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. Thorsten Lehnert & Aleksandar Andonov & Florian Bardong, 2009. "TIPS, Inflation Expectations and the Financial Crisis," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-09, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  68. Balazs VARGA & Zsolt DARVAS, "undated". "Time-Varying Coefficient Methods to Measure Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2010 259600167, EcoMod.
  69. Mitchell, James & Mouratidis, Kostas & Weale, Martin, 2007. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 245-252, February.
  70. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  71. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Contrasts Between Classes of Assets in Fixed Investment Equations as a Way of Testing Real Option Theory," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0805, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  73. Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  74. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2007. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," Working Papers Series 129, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158 Bank for International Settlements.
  75. García, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
  76. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  77. Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  78. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
  79. Victor Lopez-Perez, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecast Uncertainty In The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 9-41, March.
  80. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  81. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
  82. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  83. Svetlana Makarova, 2016. "ECB footprints on inflation forecast uncertainty," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2016-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 19 Jul 2016.
  84. K. Istrefi & S. Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: A Cross-country Analysis," Working papers 619, Banque de France.
  85. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Research Discussion Papers 15/2016, Bank of Finland.
  86. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 0721, European Central Bank.
  87. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
  88. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Modeling uncertainty: predictive accuracy as a proxy for predictive confidence," Staff Reports 161, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  89. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2010. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  90. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
  91. Dovern, Jonas & Kenny, Geoff, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
  92. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  93. Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
  94. Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March.
  95. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.
  96. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA.
  97. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  98. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
  99. Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness," NIESR Discussion Papers 320, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  100. Guerello, Chiara, 2016. "The effect of investors’ confidence on monetary policy transmission mechanism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 248-266.
  101. Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  102. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2012. "A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1349-1355.
  103. Hartmann, Matthias & Roestel, Jan, 2013. "Inflation, output and uncertainty in the era of inflation targeting – A multi-economy view on causal linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 98-112.
  104. Sauter, Oliver, 2012. "Assessing uncertainty in Europe and the US: is there a common uncertainty factor?," MPRA Paper 38031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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