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Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants

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  • Carvalho, Fabia A.
  • Minella, André

Abstract

This paper assesses the behavior of survey forecasts in Brazil during the inflation targeting regime, when managing expectations is one of the cornerstones of the conduct of monetary policy. The distinctive database of the survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) among professional forecasters allows for a thorough investigation of the epidemiology, determinants, and performance of forecasts. The main results are: i) top performing forecasters are influential to other forecasters; ii) survey forecasts perform better than vector autoregressive model-based forecasts; iii) common forecast errors prevail over idiosyncratic components across respondents; iv) inflation targets play an important role in inflation expectations; and v) agents perceive the BCB as following a Taylor rule consistent with inflation targeting. The last two suggest high credibility of the monetary authority.

Suggested Citation

  • Carvalho, Fabia A. & Minella, André, 2012. "Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1371-1391.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1371-1391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    2. repec:sbe:breart:v:37:y:2017:i:2:a:55248 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
    4. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    5. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:37-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Minella, André & Souza-Sobrinho, Nelson F., 2013. "Monetary policy channels in Brazil through the lens of a semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 405-419.
    7. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Flávio de Freitas Val & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2017. "Estimating the Credibility of Brazilian Monetary Policy using Forward Measures and a State-Space Model," Working Papers Series 463, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
    10. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1163-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Paulo Picchetti, 2016. "New Information and Updating of Market Experts’ Inflation Expectations," Working Papers Series 411, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Fabia A. de Carvalho & Marcos R. de Castro, 2015. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Interaction: a Brazilian perspective," Working Papers Series 405, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2017. "Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 137-163, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey forecasts; Inflation expectations; Inflation targeting; Credibility;

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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