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Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach

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  • Peng, Amy
  • Yang, Ling

Abstract

This paper develops a recursive VAR bootstrapping approach to produce time series measures of nominal and real uncertainty. The method is applied to US data and results compared to measures based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Amy & Yang, Ling, 2008. "Modelling uncertainty: A recursive VAR bootstrapping approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 478-481, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:3:p:478-481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2004. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 270-287, February.
    4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    5. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    2. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

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