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Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us

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Cited by:

  1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  2. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2021. "Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  3. Peter Y. Jang & Mario G. Beruvides, 2020. "Time-Varying Influences of Oil-Producing Countries on Global Oil Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
  4. Andreas A. Papandreou, 2019. "Stranded assets and the financial system," Working Papers 272, Bank of Greece.
  5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2019. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 96577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Mahadeo, Scott M.R. & Heinlein, Reinhold & Legrenzi, Gabriella D., 2019. "Energy contagion analysis: A new perspective with application to a small petroleum economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 890-903.
  7. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
  8. Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2021. "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith," Working Papers 89, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  9. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  10. Cai, Yifei & Mignon, Valérie & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US–China tensions on the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  11. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  12. Jen-Yu Lee & Tien-Thinh Nguyen & Hong-Giang Nguyen & Jen-Yao Lee, 2022. "Towards Predictive Crude Oil Purchase: A Case Study in the USA and Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-15, May.
  13. Deni Irawan & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2021. "Conditional Capital Surplus and Shortfall across Renewable and Non-Renewable Resource Firms," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202165, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
  14. Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Asymmetries in the oil market: Accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions," Working Papers of BETA 2022-36, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  15. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and credit market regulation in the Eurace model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 429-465, March.
  16. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  17. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  18. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
  19. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  20. Baas, Timo & Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union," CEPS Papers 13334, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  21. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
  22. Alexander W. Bartik & Janet Currie & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 105-155, October.
  23. Mattioli, Giulio & Wadud, Zia & Lucas, Karen, 2018. "Vulnerability to fuel price increases in the UK: A household level analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 227-242.
  24. Arbatli, Cemal Eren & Gomtsyan, David, 2021. "Sectarian aid, sanctions and subnational development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  25. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2017. "Informing SPR Policy Through Oil Futures and Inventory Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 23974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
  27. Denny IRAWAN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2021. "Conditional Capital Surplus and Shortfall across Resource Firms," Discussion papers 21031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  28. Assia Elgouacem, 2018. "Essays on investment and saving [Essais sur l’investissement et l’épargne]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03419405, HAL.
  29. Huawei, Tian, 2022. "Does gross domestic product, inflation, total investment, and exchanges rate matter in natural resources commodity prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  30. Raghavan, Mala, 2020. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  31. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Araújo, Fernando H.A., 2020. "Taxonomy of commodities assets via complexity-entropy causality plane," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  32. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  33. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," MPRA Paper 81638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2022. "Quantifying the Role of Interest Rates, the Dollar and Covid in Oil Prices," Papers 2208.14254, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
  35. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  36. Potanin, Bogdan & Trifonov, Juri, 2021. "The influence of investors’ expectations on oil prices," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 76-90.
  37. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
  38. Turco, Enrico & Bazzana, Davide & Rizzati, Massimiliano & Ciola, Emanuele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2023. "Energy price shocks and stabilization policies in the MATRIX model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
  39. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  40. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
  41. Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
  42. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples [Rationally Confused: On the Aggregate Implications of Information Provision Policies]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
  43. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  44. Scott Alan Carson, 2022. "Long-Term Daily Equity Returns Across Sectors of the Oil and Gas Industry, 2000–2019," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 125-143, March.
  45. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  46. Zhao, Yang & Li, Jianping & Yu, Lean, 2017. "A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-16.
  47. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
  48. Athanasia Dimitriadou & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2018. "Oil Market Efficiency under a Machine Learning Perspective," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, October.
  49. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
  50. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Oil shocks and volatility jumps," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 247-272, January.
  51. Grzegorz Zimon, 2023. "Prospects for the Development of Transport in Poland during the Energy Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-60, May.
  52. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  53. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak & Michelle Tong, 2021. "Convolution‐based filtering and forecasting: An application to WTI crude oil prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1230-1244, November.
  54. Fodstad, Marte & Crespo del Granado, Pedro & Hellemo, Lars & Knudsen, Brage Rugstad & Pisciella, Paolo & Silvast, Antti & Bordin, Chiara & Schmidt, Sarah & Straus, Julian, 2022. "Next frontiers in energy system modelling: A review on challenges and the state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  55. Boudekhdekh, Karim, 2022. "A comparative analysis of energy subsidy in the MENA region," MPRA Paper 115275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Costola, Michele & Lorusso, Marco, 2022. "Spillovers among energy commodities and the Russian stock market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  57. Reinhold Heinlein & Scott M. R. Mahadeo, 2023. "Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 247-287, February.
  58. Muhammad Shahbaz & Arshian Sharif & Fateh Belaid & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Long‐run co‐variability between oil prices and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1308-1326, April.
  59. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  60. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
  61. Carson, Scott Alan, 2020. "United States oil and gas stock returns with multi-factor pricing models: 2008–2018," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  62. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 743-766, May.
  63. Conny Olovsson, 2019. "Oil prices in a general equilibrium model with precautionary demand for oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 1-17, April.
  64. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  65. Marek Szturo & Bogdan Włodarczyk & Ireneusz Miciuła & Karolina Szturo, 2021. "The Essence of Relationships between the Crude Oil Market and Foreign Currencies Market Based on a Study of Key Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
  66. Al Jabri, Salwa & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2022. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  67. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  68. Koushik Mandal & Radhika Prosad Datta, 2022. "Analysing Time-frequency Relationship between Oil price and Sectoral Indices in India using Wavelet Techniques," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 192-201, September.
  69. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2018. "Ten rules for public economic policy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 32-42.
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  71. Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2020. "Crude oil production in the Persian Gulf amidst geopolitical risk, cost of damage and resources rents: Is there asymmetric inference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  72. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  73. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
  74. Shu Mo & Ting Wang, 2022. "Synergistic Effects of International Oil Price Fluctuations and Carbon Tax Policies on the Energy–Economy–Environment System in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-17, October.
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