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Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News

Author

Listed:
  • Forni, Mario
  • Franconi, Alessandro
  • Gambetti, Luca
  • Sala, Luca

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the asymmetries in the transmission of oil supply news shocks using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR. A shock that increases oil prices has large and persistent effects on real activity and relatively small effects on prices. On the contrary, a shock that reduces oil prices has smaller real effects and large effects on prices. We rationalize these findings through the behavior of uncertainty: uncertainty increases independently of the sign of the shock, amplifying the contractionary effects of a positive shock and dampening the expansionary effects of a negative shock. We find little evidence of an asymmetric response of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Forni, Mario & Franconi, Alessandro & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2023. "Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News," CEPR Discussion Papers 18704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18704
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhu, Zixiang & Wen, Yake & Zhou, Weimin & Liu, Xintong, 2025. "The state-dependent effects of oil supply news shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Till Strohsal, 2025. "Revisiting Oil Supply News Shocks: Proxy vs. Non-Gaussian Structural Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2146, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Degasperi, Riccardo, 2023. "Identification of Expectational Shocks in the Oil Market using OPEC Announcements," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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