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Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News

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  • Forni, Mario
  • Franconi, Alessandro
  • Gambetti, Luca
  • Sala, Luca

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the asymmetries in the transmission of oil supply news shocks using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR. A shock that increases oil prices has large and persistent effects on real activity and relatively small effects on prices. On the contrary, a shock that reduces oil prices has smaller real effects and large effects on prices. We rationalize these findings through the behavior of uncertainty: uncertainty increases independently of the sign of the shock, amplifying the contractionary effects of a positive shock and dampening the expansionary effects of a negative shock. We find little evidence of an asymmetric response of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Forni, Mario & Franconi, Alessandro & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2023. "Asymmetric Transmission of Oil Supply News," CEPR Discussion Papers 18704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18704
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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