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The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence

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Cited by:

  1. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
  2. Enders, Walter & Holt, Matthew T., 2011. "Breaks, bubbles, booms, and busts: the evolution of primary commodity price fundamentals," MPRA Paper 31461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Chiara Casoli & Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti, 2022. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via dynamic factor models, with an application to commodity prices [Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 494-514.
  4. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
  5. József Popp & Judit Oláh & Mária Farkas Fekete & Zoltán Lakner & Domicián Máté, 2018. "The Relationship Between Prices of Various Metals, Oil and Scarcity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
  6. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
  8. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena‐Junguito, 2017. "Lewis revisited: tropical polities competing on the world market, 1830–1938," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1244-1267, November.
  9. Justin Lin & David Rosenblatt, 2012. "Shifting patterns of economic growth and rethinking development," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 171-194.
  10. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  11. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2014. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 939-951.
  12. Md. Rabiul Islam & James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2014. "Quality-Adjusted Human Capital And Productivity Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 757-777, April.
  13. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Yunxiao, 2020. "Investigating properties of commodity price responses to real and nominal shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  14. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
  15. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
  16. Daruich, Diego & Easterly, William & Reshef, Ariell, 2019. "The surprising instability of export specializations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 36-65.
  17. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb1824 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
  19. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
  20. Ipsen, Leonhard & Aminian, Armin & Schulz-Gebhard, Jan, 2023. "Stress-testing inflation exposure: Systemically significant prices and asymmetric shock propagation in the EU28," BERG Working Paper Series 188, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  21. Ourens, Guzmán, 2017. "Uneven growth in the extensive margin: explaining the lag of agricultural economies," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1704, CEPREMAP.
  22. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
  23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2018. "Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 441-454, January.
  24. Débora Machado Nunes, 2024. "Imperialism in the Financial Capital Era: Forgotten Contributions from Marxist Dependency Theory," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 5-22, March.
  25. Jackson, William A., 2024. "The Ethics of Price Variation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 201-215.
  26. Cécile Couharde & Vincent Géronimi & Armand Taranco, 2012. "Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 13-34.
  27. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
  28. Abdelhak Bassou, 2017. "Trends and cyclicality of commodity prices (Part 1): debating the Prebisch- Singer hypothesis," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 1713, Policy Center for the New South.
  29. Fabrizio Carmignani & Abdur Chowdhury, 2012. "The Geographical Dimension of the Development Effects of Natural Resources," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 479-498, August.
  30. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2016. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 573-590, July.
  31. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 2012. "The Malthusian Paradox: Declining Food Prices in the Very Long Run," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124240, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  32. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
  33. Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2013. "Breaking the Dynamic of Relative Primary Commodity Prices in Levels and Volatilities since 1650," Economics Working Papers 13-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
  34. Alex Braithwaite & Niheer Dasandi & David Hudson, 2016. "Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 45-66, February.
  35. Casoli, Chiara & Lucchetti, Riccardo (Jack), 2021. "Permanent-Transitory decomposition of cointegrated time series via Dynamic Factor Models, with an application to commodity prices," FEEM Working Papers 312367, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  36. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  37. Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Persistence in trends and cycles of gold and silver prices: Evidence from historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 345-354.
  38. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
  39. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  40. Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-213.
  41. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Chowdhury, Abdur, 2011. "The Development Effects of Natural Resources: A Geographical Dimension," Working Papers and Research 2011-09, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
  42. Odhiambo Alphonce Kasera & Owilli Mathews Odhiambo & Bruno Charles Oloo, 2024. "Africa in Global Public Policy: Theoretical Perspectives and the Role of International Law in Shaping Public Policy in Africa," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 910-937, June.
  43. Herzer, Dierk, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity and the Trade-Income Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 194-211.
  44. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
  45. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  46. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
  47. Joseph P Byrne & Ryuta Sakemoto & Bing Xu, 2020. "Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals [Oil price shocks and the stock market: evidence from Japan]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 499-528.
  48. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
  49. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2023. "What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  50. Eric Lob & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2025. "A political economy analysis of changes and continuities in Iran–Africa trade relations: a case of South–South dependency?," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 83(1), pages 106-143, January.
  51. Wanling Huang & André Varella Mollick & Khoa Huu Nguyen, 2017. "Dynamic responses and tail-dependence among commodities, the US real interest rate and the dollar," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 959-997, November.
  52. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries’ Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  53. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  54. Boris Petkov, 2018. "Natural Resource Abundance: Is it a Blessing or is it a Curse," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 25-56, September.
  55. Opa Kapijimpanga, 2023. "Debt Sustainability in the Context of African Dependency and Underdevelopment," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 66(3), pages 251-259, December.
  56. Chuku Chuku & Paul Middleditch, 2020. "Characterizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules and Interactions when Commodity Prices Matter," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(3), pages 373-404, June.
  57. Titus Isaiah Zayone & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Riza Radmehr, 2020. "Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
  58. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries' Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  59. Schaffartzik, Anke & Mayer, Andreas & Eisenmenger, Nina & Krausmann, Fridolin, 2016. "Global patterns of metal extractivism, 1950–2010: Providing the bones for the industrial society's skeleton," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 101-110.
  60. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:s1:p:27-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 220-232.
  62. Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir, 2022. "The nonlinearity of exchange rate pass‐through on currency invoice: A quantile, generalized method of moments and threshold effect‐test from sub‐Sahara African economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1473-1494, January.
  63. Bernhard Tröster & Karin Küblböck, 2020. "Unprecedented but not Unpredictable: Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Commodity-Dependent Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1430-1449, December.
  64. Herr, Hansjörg & Schweisshelm, Erwin & Truong, Minh Huy Vu, 2016. "The integration of Vietnam in the global economy and its effects for Vietnamese economic development," GLU Working Papers 44, Global Labour University (GLU).
  65. Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "On robust testing for trend," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  66. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
  67. Bleaney,Michael Francis & Halland,Havard, 2016. "Do resource-rich countries suffer from a lack of fiscal discipline ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7552, The World Bank.
  68. Paul Alagidede, 2012. "Trends And Cycles In The Net Barter Terms Of Trade For Sub-Saharan Africa's Primary Commodity Exporters," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(2), pages 213-229, July-Dece.
  69. Atanu Ghoshray & Ashira Perera, 2016. "An Empirical Study of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 551-571, July.
  70. Islam, Md. Rabiul & Madsen, Jakob B. & Raschky, Paul A., 2015. "Gold and silver mining in the 16th and 17th centuries, land titles and agricultural productivity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 150-166.
  71. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
  72. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
  73. Addison, Tony & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2023. "Discerning trends in international metal prices in the presence of nonstationary volatility," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  74. Rodney Edvinsson & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2025. "Does money growth predict inflation in Sweden? Evidence from vector autoregressions using four centuries of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 1613-1635, April.
  75. Ghoshray Atanu & Kejriwal Mohitosh & Wohar Mark, 2014. "Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 23-40, February.
  76. Carpantier, Jean-François, 2021. "Anything but gold - The golden constant revisited," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
  77. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
  78. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  79. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
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