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Citations for "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP"

by Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig

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  1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00511979 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:pit:wpaper:367 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  5. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  6. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402.
  7. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  8. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  9. Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "The European way out of recession," Working papers 360, Banque de France.
  10. Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  11. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements, 2000. "Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W36, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00423890 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2003. "A SETAR model for Canadian GDP: non-linearities and forecast comparisons," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1957-1964.
  16. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Davidson, James, 2004. "Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 137-147, June.
  18. Ming Chien Lo & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Adjustment to the Law of One Price," Working Papers 0030, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  19. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  20. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  21. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 0026, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  22. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  23. Fady Barsoum & Sandra Stankiewicz, 2013. "Forecasting GDP Growth Using Mixed-Frequency Models With Switching Regimes," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-10, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  24. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  25. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
  26. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00505165 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
  28. Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  29. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  30. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  31. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  33. Tom Boot & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models," DNB Working Papers 452, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  34. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Canadian And Us Labour Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Working Paper Series 06-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  37. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA.
  38. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.
  39. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
  40. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  41. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in output, real exchange rates and real money balances: Norway, 1830-2003," Working Paper 2005/2, Norges Bank.
  42. Leisen, Fabrizio & Casarin, Roberto & Bassetti, Federico, 2011. "Beta-product Poisson-Dirichlet Processes," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 12160, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  43. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
  44. Dick Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
  45. Philip Rothman, . "Higher-Order Residual Analysis for Simple Bilinear and Threshold Autoregressive Models with the TR Test," Working Papers 9813, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  46. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  47. Rinke, Saskia & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Information Criteria for Nonlinear Time Series Models," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-548, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  48. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  49. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
  50. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of "business cycles"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  51. Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2015. "A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1271-1299, December.
  52. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  53. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Working papers 172, Banque de France.
  54. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  55. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  56. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  57. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
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