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Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data

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Cited by:

  1. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
  2. Klein, Mathias & Polattimur, Hamza & Winkler, Roland, 2022. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  3. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
  4. Romanos Priftis & Srec̆ko Zimic, 2021. "Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 498-519.
  5. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
  6. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
  7. Thomas Warmedinger & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers and Beyond," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 139-168, December.
  8. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
  9. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Nadav Ben Zeev & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2023. "Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 382-387, May.
  11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Francesco Zanetti & Yang Yu, 2018. "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
  13. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
  14. Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro, 2013. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes," Working Papers 13-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  15. Albertini, Julien & Auray, Stéphane & Bouakez, Hafedh & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2021. "Taking off into the wind: Unemployment risk and state-Dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 990-1007.
  16. Hondroyiannis, George & Papaoikonomou, Dimitrios, 2015. "When does it pay to tax? Evidence from state-dependent fiscal multipliers in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 116-128.
  17. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign [Downward Wage Rigidity and Business Cycle Asymmetries]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
  18. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
  19. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
  20. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in South Africa: The importance of financial sector dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  21. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  22. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  23. Emanuel Kopp & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Susanna Mursula & Suchanan Tambunlertchai, 2019. "U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017," IMF Working Papers 2019/120, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  25. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
  26. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2021. "Asymmetries in the effects of unemployment expectation shocks as monetary policy shifts with economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  27. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "State-Dependent Effects of Tax Changes in Germany and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202125, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  28. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Rubio-Guerrero, Juan J., 2022. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: Further evidence for Spain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 305-313.
  29. Steinar Holden & Victoria Sparrman, 2018. "Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(1), pages 124-158, January.
  30. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  31. Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2020. "Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 429-463, December.
  32. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
  33. Popiel Michal Ksawery, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and US output," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-26, April.
  34. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2016. "Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-97.
  35. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
  36. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in the US: A journey into nonlinear territory," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1106-1128, July.
  37. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
  38. Yifei Lyu & Eul Noh, 2022. "Cyclical variation in US government spending multipliers," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 831-846, April.
  39. Fabrice Dabiré & Hashmat Khan & Patrick Richard & Jean-François Rouillard, 2021. "Characterizing G-multipliers in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 21-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised Mar 2023.
  40. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Macro fiscal policy in economic unions: states as agents," Working Papers 13-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  41. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 450, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  42. Jia, Bijie & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2015. "Government Spending Shocks and Private Activity: The Role of Sentiments," MPRA Paper 66263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. U. Devrim Demirel, 2020. "Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05," Working Papers 56522, Congressional Budget Office.
  44. Tsoungui Belinga,Vincent De Paul, 2016. "Effects of fiscal policy shocks in an open economy : evidence from Canada," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7654, The World Bank.
  45. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
  46. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
  47. Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2023. "Fiscal stabilization rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  48. Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
  49. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
  50. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  51. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Iwata, Yasuharu & Kajita, Yuto & Soma, Naoto, 2019. "Time-varying Fiscal Multipliers Identified by Systematic Component: A Bayesian Approach to TVP-SVAR model," MPRA Paper 92631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
  53. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "A functional classification analysis of government spending multipliers," Working Papers 298, Bank of Greece.
  54. Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Ksenia Koloskova, 2014. "Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions," IMF Working Papers 2014/213, International Monetary Fund.
  55. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
  56. Cem Çebi & K.Azim Özdemir, 2021. "Cyclical variation of the fiscal multiplier in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 495-509, January.
  57. Manuela M. Dantas & Kenneth J. Merkley & Felipe B. G. Silva, 2023. "Government Guarantees and Banks' Income Smoothing," Papers 2303.03661, arXiv.org.
  58. Klein, Mathias, 2016. "Austerity and private debt," Ruhr Economic Papers 642, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  59. Alloza, Mario & Sanz, Carlos & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29187, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  60. Buchheim, Lukas & Watzinger, Martin & Wilhelm, Matthias, 2020. "Job creation in tight and slack labor markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 126-143.
  61. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  62. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
  63. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
  64. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2022. "When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work?," Working Papers 2205, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  66. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  67. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Shuwei, 2018. "Understanding Why Fiscal Stimulus Can Fail through the Lens of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," MPRA Paper 89326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Ms. Stefania Fabrizio & Kodjovi M. Eklou, 2019. "Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern?," IMF Working Papers 2019/025, International Monetary Fund.
  69. Mamedli, Mariam, 2016. "Government expenditure multiplier under the zero lower bound: The role of public investment," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 103-111.
  70. Mathias Klein, 2016. "Austerity and Private Debt," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1611, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  71. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2014. "Why is the Government Spending Multiplier Larger at the Zero Lower Bound ? Not (Only) Because of the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2014-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  72. Borsi, Mihály Tamás, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers across the credit cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-151.
  73. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
  74. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kolb, Benedikt & Prieto, Esteban, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of bank capital regulation," Discussion Papers 44/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  75. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi, 2015. "Multipliers of unexpected increases in defense spending: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-226.
  76. Dupor, Bill & Guerrero, Rodrigo, 2017. "Local and aggregate fiscal policy multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 16-30.
  77. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2021. "The Impact of Food Prices on Conflict Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 547-560, March.
  78. Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo & Laetitia Lebihan, 2021. "Government Spending, GDP and Exchange Rate in Zero Lower Bound: Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 139-160, March.
  79. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
  80. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2018. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 519-523, May.
  81. Rothfelder, Mario & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Other publications TiSEM 40ca581a-e228-49ae-911f-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  83. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
  84. Jia Bijie & Kim Hyeongwoo & Zhang Shuwei, 2022. "Assessing the Role of Sentiment in the Propagation of Fiscal Stimulus," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 699-728, June.
  85. Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2021. "Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  86. Borsoi, Nicolas & Teles, Vladimir K, 2020. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bad Times: Does the Nature of a Recession Matter?," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(1), August.
  87. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
  88. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
  89. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
  90. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
  91. G. Cléaud & M. Lemoine & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2013-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
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  96. Michael B. Devereux, 2018. "International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 29-50.
  97. Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo & Laetitia Lebihan, 2021. "Government Spending, GDP and Exchange Rate in Zero Lower Bound: Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 139-160, March.
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  124. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2013. "The Productive Government Spending Multiplier, In and Out of The Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2013-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  125. Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Spillovers from Tax Shocks to the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202133, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  126. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "Covid-19 and monetary–fiscal policy interactions in Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 376-384.
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  129. Vincent Belinga & Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2015. "(Not) Dancing Together: Monetary Policy Stance and the Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2015/114, International Monetary Fund.
  130. Nadav Ben Zeev & Tomer Ifergane, 2022. "Firing Restrictions and Economic Resilience: Protect and Survive?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 93-124, January.
  131. John J. Heim, 2016. "Do government stimulus programs have different effects in recessions, or by type of tax or spending program?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1333-1368, December.
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