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Citations for "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models"

by Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken

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  1. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Bootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 779-806, August.
  2. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Working Papers in Economics 10/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  4. Riané de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander, 2013. "Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(1), March.
  5. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Understanding stock return predictability," Working Papers 2006-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  7. Forrest, David & Sanz, Ismael & Tena, J.D., 2010. "Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 576-588, July.
  8. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?," International Finance 0404014, EconWPA.
  9. Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, . "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  11. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Yu-min Yen, 2012. "Bond Variance Risk Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp699, Financial Markets Group.
  12. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  13. Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
  14. Ince, Onur, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates out-of-sample with panel methods and real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
  15. repec:lan:wpaper:592830 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Does the Yield Spread Predict the Output Gap in the U.S.?," Research Papers in Economics 2006:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  17. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  18. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  19. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2012. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts:A Concise Review of Some Recent Developments," KIER Working Papers 821, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  21. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-38, June.
  22. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  23. McCracken, Michael W., 2004. "Parameter estimation and tests of equal forecast accuracy between non-nested models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 503-514.
  24. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  25. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," IMF Working Papers 08/76, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
  27. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson, 2005. "Mind your Ps and Qs! Improving ARMA forecasts with RBC priors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  28. Amendola, Alessandra & Storti, Giuseppe, 2008. "A GMM procedure for combining volatility forecasts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3047-3060, February.
  29. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Working Papers 2008-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  31. Audrino, Francesco & Hu, Yujia, 2011. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Economics Working Paper Series 1138, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  32. Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  33. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 0247, European Central Bank.
  34. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  35. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  36. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  37. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the usefulness of ARFIMA models for predicting macroeconomic and financial time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 539-578.
  38. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
  39. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
  40. Ren, Yu & Yuan, Yufei & Zhang, Yang, 2014. "Human capital, household capital and asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 11-22.
  41. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nicholas Kilimani & Amandine Nakumuryango & Siobhan Redford, 2014. "Predicting BRICS stock returns using ARFIMA models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(17), pages 1159-1166, September.
  43. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
  44. Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 0867, European Central Bank.
  45. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  46. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  47. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  48. Pär Österholm & Helge Berger, 2008. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence From Out-Of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian Vars," IMF Working Papers 08/53, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  50. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "Inference about predictive ability when there are many predictors," Working Papers w0096, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  51. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  52. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  53. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2008. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates using idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1322-1332, July.
  54. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  55. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
  56. Richard A. Ashley & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis of Inference in GMM Estimation With Possibly-Flawed Moment Conditions," Working Papers e07-40, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  57. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  58. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  59. Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
  60. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2006. "Consumption, (Dis)Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 212, Society for Computational Economics.
  61. Norman R. Swanson & Andres Fernandez, 2011. "Real-Time Datasets Really Do Make a Difference: Definitional Change, Data Release, and Forecasting," Departmental Working Papers 201113, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  62. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  63. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  64. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  65. Dick Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
  66. Richard Ashley & Haichun Ye, 2012. "On the Granger causality between median inflation and price dispersion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4221-4238, November.
  67. J. Isaac Miller, 2014. "Simple Robust Tests for the Specification of High-Frequency Predictors of a Low-Frequency Series," Working Papers 1412, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  68. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2609-2622, September.
  70. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  71. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
  72. Götz Thomas & Hecq Alain & Urbain Jean-Pierre, 2012. "Forecasting Mixed Frequency Time Series with ECM-MIDAS Models," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  73. Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
  74. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  75. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  76. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1255, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  77. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Saša ŽIKOVIÆ & Randall K. FILER, 2013. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(4), pages 327-359, August.
  79. Kai Carstensen & Klaus Wohlrabe & Christina Ziegler, 2010. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," CESifo Working Paper Series 3158, CESifo Group Munich.
  80. repec:lan:wpaper:3324 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, May.
  82. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
  83. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "A Survey of Recent Advances in Forecast Accuracy Comparison Testing, with an Extension to Stochastic Dominance," Departmental Working Papers 201309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  84. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," Working Papers in Economics 10/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  85. Carlo Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Working Papers 298, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  86. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
  87. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00587775 is not listed on IDEAS
  88. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-28.
  89. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
  90. Daniel Hartmann & Christian Pierdzioch, 2007. "International equity flows and the predictability of US stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 583-599.
  91. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  92. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Long Run And Cyclical Dynamics In The Us Stock Market," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  93. Boucher, Christophe, 2007. "Asymmetric adjustment of stock prices to their fundamental value and the predictability of US stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 339-347, June.
  94. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "Idiosyncratic volatility, economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  95. Fraire, Francisco & Leatham, David J., 2006. "Decision Making Tool to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk," Proceedings: 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006; Washington, DC 133082, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
  96. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  97. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Comment on "Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 453-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  99. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  100. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  101. Axel Groß‐KlußMann & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2013. "Predicting Bid–Ask Spreads Using Long‐Memory Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 724-742, December.
  102. Wei Dong & Deokwoo Nam, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Individual Good’s Price Misalignment: Some Preliminary Evidence of Long-Horizon Predictability," Discussion Papers 11-8, Bank of Canada.
  103. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  104. Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2012. "Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 679, Central Bank of Chile.
  105. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  106. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  107. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  108. Driver, Ciaran & Trapani, Lorenzo & Urga, Giovanni, 2013. "On the use of cross-sectional measures of forecast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 367-377.
  109. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/24, European University Institute.
  110. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  111. Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 561, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Nov 2004.
  112. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Using Large Data Sets to Forecast Sectoral Employment," Working Papers 201101, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  113. Wong, Woon K. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Market imperfections and the information content of implied and realized volatility," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-79, January.
  114. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  115. Kei Kawakami, 2013. "Conditiona l Forecast Selection from Many Forecasts: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1167, The University of Melbourne.
  116. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
  117. Giorgio Valente & Mark Taylor & Lucio Sarno & Richard Clarida, 2004. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers wp04-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  118. Geert Mesters & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "A Forty Year Assessment of Forecasting the Boat Race," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-110/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  119. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  120. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
  121. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  122. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  123. Daniel Peña & Ismael Sánchez, 2001. "New In-Sample Prediction Errors In Time Series With Applications," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws011107, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  124. Francis X. Diebold, 2012. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," NBER Working Papers 18391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  125. Andrea Carriero & Raffaella Giacomini, 2011. "How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?," Post-Print hal-00844809, HAL.
  126. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, 05.
  127. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
  128. Joakim Westerlund & Paresh K Narayan, 2012. "Does the choice of estimator matter when forecasting returns?," Financial Econometics Series 2012_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  129. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
  130. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  131. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  132. Pagano, Patrizio & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices," Working Paper Series 0999, European Central Bank.
  133. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  134. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2012. "Prévoir sans persistance," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00662771, HAL.
  135. Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  136. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  137. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
  138. Meichi Huang, 2013. "Housing bubble implications: The perspective of housing price predictability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 586-596.
  139. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "The Empirical Risk-Return Relation: A Factor Analysis Approach," NBER Working Papers 11477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  140. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  141. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  142. Katja Drechsel & Rolf Scheufele, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  143. Todd Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  144. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 0214, European Central Bank.
  145. Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Are Forecast Updates Progressive?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  146. Valeri Voev, 2009. "On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts," CREATES Research Papers 2009-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  147. Ryan Ratcliff, 2010. "Predicting nominal exchange rate movements using skewness information from options prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 75-92.
  148. Christophe Boucher & Bertrand Maillet, 2011. "Une analyse temps-fréquences des cycles financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00565229, HAL.
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