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International equity flows and the predictability of US stock returns

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Author Info

  • Daniel Hartmann

    (Department of Economics, Saarland University, Saarbruecken, Germany)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Saarland University, Saarbruecken, Germany)

Abstract

We examined the link between international equity flows and US stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one-month-ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one-month-ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1045
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 583-599

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:8:p:583-599

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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References

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  1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
  2. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
  3. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  4. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
  6. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
  7. John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1997. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Staff Reports 24, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August.
  9. McCracken, Michael W., 2004. "Parameter estimation and tests of equal forecast accuracy between non-nested models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 503-514.
  10. Williamson, Rohan, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure and competition: evidence from the automotive industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 441-475, March.
  11. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
  12. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
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Cited by:
  1. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.
  2. Ülkü, Numan & Karpova, Yekaterina, 2014. "Do international equity investors rebalance to manage currency exposure? A study of Greece foreign investor flows data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 150-169.

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