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International equity flows and the predictability of US stock returns

Author

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  • Daniel Hartmann

    (Department of Economics, Saarland University, Saarbruecken, Germany)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Department of Economics, Saarland University, Saarbruecken, Germany)

Abstract

We examined the link between international equity flows and US stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one-month-ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one-month-ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Hartmann & Christian Pierdzioch, 2007. "International equity flows and the predictability of US stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 583-599.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:26:y:2007:i:8:p:583-599
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1045
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    Cited by:

    1. Porras, Eva & Ülkü, Numan, 2015. "Foreigners’ trading and stock returns in Spain," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 111-126.
    2. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.
    3. Ülkü, Numan & Karpova, Yekaterina, 2014. "Do international equity investors rebalance to manage currency exposure? A study of Greece foreign investor flows data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 150-169.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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