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The Relationship Between Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Social Media

Author

Listed:
  • Zachary McGurk

    (West Virginia University, College of Business and Economics)

  • Adam Nowak

    (West Virginia University, College of Business and Economics)

Abstract

The recent behavioral finance literature has found investor sentiment having some predictive ability in equity returns. This differs from the standard finance theory provides no role for investor sentiment. We examine the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns by employing textual analysis on social media posts. Overall we find that our investor sentiment measure has a positive and significant effect on stock returns. These finds are consistent across a number of different models and specifications, thus finding further evidence against the standard finance theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak, 2014. "The Relationship Between Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Social Media," Working Papers 14-38, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:14-38
    as

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    File URL: http://busecon.wvu.edu/phd_economics/pdf/14-38.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor Sentiment; Stock Returns; Social Media; Predictive Regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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