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International Equity Flows and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

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Author Info
Hartmann, Daniel
Pierdzioch, Christian

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Abstract

We examined the link between international equity flows and U.S. stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous (one-month-ahead) stock returns. Our results also indicate that an investor, in real time, could have used information on the link between international equity flows and one-month-ahead stock returns to improve the performance of simple trading rules.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 562.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision: Apr 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:562

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Related research
Keywords: International equity flows predictability of stock returns performance of trading rules the United States

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  8. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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