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Nonlinear Links between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Movements

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Author Info
Hartmann, Daniel
Pierdzioch, Christian

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Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that the link between exchange rate movements and stock returns may be nonlinear. This evidence could reflect fundamental economic effects like, for example, transaction costs in international goods market arbitrage. It could also reflect market inefficiencies if investors could exploit the nonlinearity to systematically improve the performance of simple trading rules. Using monthly data for major North-American and European industrial countries for the period 1973-2006, we found that it would have been difficult for an investor to use information on nonlinearities to improve the performance of a simple trading rule based on out-of-sample forecasts of stock returns.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2918/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 558.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision: Apr 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:558

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Related research
Keywords: Stock returns; exchange rate movements; nonlinearities;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Baldwin, R.E. & Lyons, R.K., 1991. "Exchange Rate Hysteresis : Large Versus Small Policy Misalignments," Papers fb-28, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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  5. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "The Case for Stabilizing Exchange Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 61-72, Autumn.
  7. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-41.
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  9. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
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  11. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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