Nonlinear Links between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Movements
AbstractEmpirical evidence suggests that the link between exchange rate movements and stock returns may be nonlinear. This evidence could reflect fundamental economic effects like, for example, transaction costs in international goods market arbitrage. It could also reflect market inefficiencies if investors could exploit the nonlinearity to systematically improve the performance of simple trading rules. Using monthly data for major North-American and European industrial countries for the period 1973-2006, we found that it would have been difficult for an investor to use information on nonlinearities to improve the performance of a simple trading rule based on out-of-sample forecasts of stock returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 558.
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Stock returns; exchange rate movements; nonlinearities;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2006-11-12 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IFN-2006-11-12 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-12 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2006-11-12 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
- John M. Griffin & Rene M. Stulz, 1997.
"International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
6243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-41.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992.
"A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Di Iorio, Amalia & Faff, Robert, 2000. "An analysis of asymmetry in foreign currency exposure of the Australian equities market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 133-159, June.
- Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004.
"Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
- Sohnke M. Bartram, 2002. "Linear and Nonlinear Foreign Exchange Rate Exposures of German Nonfinancial Corporations," Finance 0207001, EconWPA.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996.
"A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns',"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp322, Financial Markets Group.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "The Case for Stabilizing Exchange Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 61-72, Autumn.
- Baldwin, R.E. & Lyons, R.K., 1991.
"Exchange Rate Hysteresis : Large Versus Small Policy Misalignments,"
fb-28, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Baldwin, Richard E. & Lyons, Richard K., 1994. "Exchange rate hysteresis? Large versus small policy misalignments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
- William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.