IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/sndecm/v21y2017i5p19n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-level factor analysis of bond risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Dukpa
  • Kim Yunjung
  • Bak Yuhyeon

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841 Korea)

Abstract

Earlier studies in the finance literature show that macroeconomic fundamentals can predict excess bond returns. We employ a multi-level factor model to estimate global and sectoral factors separately and show that (i) the real factors possess most important predictive power existing in the panel; (ii) the financial factors might have some predictive power but less than the real factors; (iii) the inflation factors have almost no predictive power and (iv) the excess bond returns have a countercyclical component.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Dukpa & Kim Yunjung & Bak Yuhyeon, 2017. "Multi-level factor analysis of bond risk premia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(5), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:5:p:19:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2015-0080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2015-0080
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/snde-2015-0080?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    3. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
    4. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537.
    5. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    6. Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
    7. Tomohiro Ando & Jushan Bai, 2015. "Asset Pricing with a General Multifactor Structure," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 556-604.
    8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    9. Dias Francisco & Rua António & Pinheiro Maximiano, 2013. "Determining the number of global and country-specific factors in the euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 573-617, December.
    10. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Venetis, Ioannis & Ladas, Avgoustinos, 2022. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," MPRA Paper 115801, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021. "Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
    2. Zhang, Han & Fan, Xiaoyun & Guo, Bin & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Reexamining time-varying bond risk premia in the post-financial crisis era," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    5. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Michael D. Bauer, 2018. "Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 196-211, April.
    7. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
    8. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
    9. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2015. "Asymptotic Inference for Common Factor Models in the Presence of Jumps," Discussion Papers 2015-05, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    11. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
    12. Luis Ceballos & Alberto Naudon & Damián Romero, 2016. "Nominal term structure and term premia: evidence from Chile," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(29), pages 2721-2735, June.
    13. Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
    14. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
    16. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Rahman, Shahidur, 2015. "A regime-switching Nelson–Siegel term structure model of the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-17.
    19. Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    common factors; excess bond returns; predictive regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:21:y:2017:i:5:p:19:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.