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How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

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  1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
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  4. Massimiliano Ferraresi & Umberto Galmarini & Leonzio Rizzo & Alberto Zanardi, 2019. "Switch toward tax centralization in Italy: a wake-up for the local political budget cycle," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(4), pages 872-898, August.
  5. Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2013. "Voting functions in the EU-15," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 411-428, December.
  6. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Gino Gancia, 2010. "The political cost of reforms (preliminar version of working paper number 1360: Uncertainty, electoral incentives and political myopia)," Economics Working Papers 1250, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2011.
  7. Murtinu, Samuele & Piccirilli, Giulio & Sacchi, Agnese, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Government Polarization, and the Economic Literacy of Voters," MPRA Paper 74864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Lagona, Francesco & Padovano, Fabio, 2021. "How does legislative behavior change when the country becomes democratic? The case of South Korea," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
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  10. Ha, Eunyoung & Kang, Myung-koo, 2015. "Government Policy Responses to Financial Crises: Identifying Patterns and Policy Origins in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 264-281.
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  19. Wei Yu & Jianjun Jia & Ying Zheng, 2023. "Political uncertainty and corporate working capital in China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 927-966, October.
  20. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
  21. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Brender, Adi & Blesse, Sebastian & Reingewertz, Yaniv, 2016. "Revenue decentralization, central oversight and the political budget cycle: Evidence from Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-16.
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  31. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2015. "Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 471-500, October.
  32. Arnt Hopland, 2013. "Central government control and fiscal adjustment: Norwegian evidence," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
  33. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  34. Abel Bojar, 2015. "Biting the Hand that Feeds: Reconsidering Partisanship in an Age of Permanent Austerity," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 91, European Institute, LSE.
  35. Sung Ho Park & Kevin L Young, 2015. "Wage moderation in the public sector: The experiences of 11 EMU countries in the recent economic crisis, 2008–2010," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 36(4), pages 575-609, November.
  36. Boly, Mohamed & Combes, Jean-Louis & Combes Motel, Pascale, 2023. "Does environment pay for politicians?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  37. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
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  40. Felix Rösel, 2017. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Supervision and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Germany," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 641-666, December.
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  42. Raffer, Christian, 2020. "Accrual Accounting and the Local Government Budget - A Matching Evaluation," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224630, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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  45. Burke Paul J., 2012. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-43, March.
  46. Lee, Dongwon & Min, Sujin, 2021. "Defective democracy and the political budget cycle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 947-961.
  47. Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2013. "Globalization and Transformation in Central European Countries: The Case of Poland," MPRA Paper 59306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
  49. Blessing Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2015. "Aid, Political Business Cycles and Growth in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1387-1421, November.
  50. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 19-68.
  51. Palguta, Ján, 2019. "Political representation and public contracting: Evidence from municipal legislatures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 411-431.
  52. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Miss Dilan Ölcer, 2013. "Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/153, International Monetary Fund.
  53. Abel Bojar, 2016. "The Electoral Advantage of the Left in Times of Fiscal Adjustment," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 103, European Institute, LSE.
  54. Francesco Capalbo & Claudio Lupi & Margherita Smarra & Marco Sorrentino, 2021. "Elections and earnings management: evidence from municipally-owned entities," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 25(3), pages 707-730, September.
  55. Starkov, Egor, 2023. "Only time will tell: Credible dynamic signaling," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  56. Duha T. Altindag & Elif S. Filiz & Erdal Tekin, 2020. "Does It Matter How and How Much Politicians are Paid?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1105-1132, October.
  57. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2015. "Optimal Weather Conditions, Economic Growth, and Political Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 16-30.
  58. Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Comment on "Can Public Sector Wage Bills Be Reduced?"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 402-404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Bram Gootjes & Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2021. "Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 1-30, July.
  60. Alberto Alesina & Dorian Carloni & Giampaolo Lecce, 2012. "The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 531-570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.
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  63. Marta Curto-Grau, 2017. "Voters’ responsiveness to public employment policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 143-169, January.
  64. Milan Bednař, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 523-547, December.
  65. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives From Selection," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 369-398, April.
  66. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2020. "Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919–2008," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19.
  67. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2013. "Stochastic debt sustainability indicators," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 97-121.
  68. Nicolas Ajzenman & Ruben Durante, 2019. "Salience and Accountability: School Infrastructureand Last-Minute Electoral Punishment," School of Government Working Papers 201905, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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  173. Evans, Olaniyi, 2020. "Fiscal Discipline, Financial Development & Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  176. Falcó-Gimeno, Albert & Jurado, Ignacio, 2011. "Minority governments and budget deficits: The role of the opposition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 554-565, September.
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  182. Nakaguma, Marcos Yamada & Bender, Siegfried, 2010. "Ciclos Políticos e Resultados Eleitorais: Um Estudo sobre o Comportamento do Eleitor Brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(1), March.
  183. Darong Dai, 2018. "Fiscal policy under a minimum‐time objective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(3), pages 293-314, July.
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  185. Chalil, Tengku Munawar, 2018. "Political Cycles, Government Spending, and Efficiency of Indonesia' Local Governments," MPRA Paper 88082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  189. Balaguer-Coll, Maria Teresa & Brun-Martos, María Isabel & Forte, Anabel & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2015. "Local governments' re-election and its determinants: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 94-108.
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  192. Velibor Mačkić & Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić, 2017. "Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes," EFZG Working Papers Series 1704, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
  193. Dušan Pavlović & Dimitros Xefteris, 2020. "Qualifying the common pool problem in government spending: the role of positional externalities," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 446-457, December.
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  195. Narayan, Laxmi, 2017. "Growth of Public Debt in Haryana – Dynamism or Misplaced Priorities," MPRA Paper 79431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2017.
  196. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2017. "Political Myopia, Public Debt," OxCarre Working Papers 200, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  197. Mark P. Jones & Osvaldo Meloni & Mariano Tommasi, 2012. "Voters as Fiscal Liberals: Incentives and Accountability in Federal Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 135-156, July.
  198. J. Stephen Ferris & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2021. "Elections, economic outcomes and policy choices in Canada: 1870 – 2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(16), pages 1840-1855, April.
  199. Marek Hanusch & Daniel Magleby, 2014. "Popularity, polarization, and political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 457-467, June.
  200. Frank Bohn & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 817-841, October.
  201. Masiero, Giuliano & Santarossa, Michael, 2021. "Natural disasters and electoral outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  202. Aurélia Buchs & Nils Soguel, 2022. "Fiscal performance and the re-election of finance ministers–evidence from the Swiss cantons," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 31-49, April.
  203. Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & María Isabel Brun-Martos & Anabel Forte & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "Determinants of local governments'­ reelection: New evidence based on a Bayesian approach," Working Papers 2014/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  204. Shenoy, Ajay & Zimmermann, Laura V., 2021. "The Workforce of Clientelism: The Case of Local Officials in the Party Machine," GLO Discussion Paper Series 916, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  205. Abdoul Aziz NDIAYE & Birane DIOUF & Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE, 2022. "Les déterminants économiques du vote aux élections présidentielles dans les pays de l’UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 56, pages 5-23.
  206. Jorge Carrera & Pablo De la Vega & Fernando Toledo, 2021. "Income Inequality and Fiscal Policy over the Political Cycle A Panel Estimation Model for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4449, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  207. Bremer, Björn & Bürgisser, Reto, 2022. "Lower Taxes At All Costs? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Four European Countries," SocArXiv e6ds9, Center for Open Science.
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  209. Nicolas Ajzenman & Ruben Durante, 2019. "Salience and Accountability: School Infrastructureand Last-Minute Electoral Punishment," School of Government Working Papers wp_gob_2019_3, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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  213. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob de Haan, 2013. "Conditional Election and Partisan Cycles in Government Support to the Agricultural Sector: An Empirical Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 793-818.
  214. Oleg Sidorkin & Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2015. "Political Risk, Information and Corruption Cycles: Evidence from Russian Regions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp539, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  215. Vlandas, Tim & Weisstanner, David, 2022. "Income Stagnation and the Politics of Welfare State Retrenchment in Advanced Economies," SocArXiv 862ua, Center for Open Science.
  216. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
  217. Dorn, Florian, 2023. "Elections and Government Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277700, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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  219. Borge, Lars-Erik & Hopland, Arnt O., 2020. "Less fiscal oversight, more adjustment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  220. Costas-Pérez, Elena & Solé-Ollé, Albert & Sorribas-Navarro, Pilar, 2012. "Corruption scandals, voter information, and accountability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 469-484.
  221. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2010. "Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2908, CESifo.
  222. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
  223. Blanca Moreno Dodson & Grégoire Rota-Graziosi & Clémence Vergne, 2012. "Breaking the wave of democracy: The effect of foreign aid on the incumbent's re-election probability," CERDI Working papers halshs-00722375, HAL.
  224. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob Haan, 2013. "Political budget cycles and election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 245-267, October.
  225. Lavinia DudaÈ™ & Lavinia MihiÈ›, 2019. "What Shapes Elections and Corruption in Emerging and Developing Countries ?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 195-201, August.
  226. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2011. "Opportunistic and partisan election cycles in Brazil: new evidence at the municipal level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 233-247, July.
  227. George Manliev, 2013. "From Fiscal Crisis to Fiscal Stabilization and Optimization: the Case of Bulgaria 1998-2012," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 32-49, April.
  228. Karsten Mause & Friedrich Groeteke, 2012. "New constitutional “debt brakes” for Euroland? A question of institutional complementarity," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 279-301, December.
  229. Silva-Escobar, Daniel, 2022. "Conducta electoral oportunista y determinantes económicos de la reelección de alcaldes/as en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 10, Estudios Nueva Economía.
  230. Garmann, Sebastian, 2017. "Political budget cycles and fiscally conservative voters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 72-75.
  231. Iordanis Eleftheriadis & Vasilios Vyttas, 2016. "Creating a culture of risk in the Greek public administration. A brief retrospect on the memorandum era," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(2), pages 65-71, June.
  232. Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
  233. George Petrakos & Konstantinos Rontos & Luca Salvati & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2022. "Toward a political budget cycle? Unveiling long-term latent paths in Greece," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3379-3394, October.
  234. Marco Di Cataldo & Elena Renzullo, 2024. "EU Money and Mayors: Does Cohesion Policy affect local electoral outcomes?," Working Papers 2024: 02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  235. Bellettini, Giorgio & Berti Ceroni, Carlotta & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2013. "Political persistence and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 165-179.
  236. Christine Cuny & Jungbae Kim & Mihir N. Mehta, 2020. "Politically Connected Governments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 915-952, September.
  237. Francesco Lagona & Fabio Padovano, 2020. "How does legislative behavior change when the country becomes democratic? The case of South Korea," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2020-02-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
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  239. Savu, A., 2021. "The Local Political Economy of Austerity: Lessons from Hospital Closures in Romania," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2120, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  240. Sever, Can & Yücel, Emekcan, 2022. "The effects of elections on macroprudential policy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 507-533.
  241. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  242. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian & Jaya Wen, 2018. "Distrust and Political Turnover during Economic Crises," NBER Working Papers 24187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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