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Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence

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  • Klomp, Jeroen
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

We examine whether governments' natural resource rents are affected by upcoming elections and if so, whether the incumbent uses these additional rents for re-election purposes. Estimates of a dynamic panel model for about 60 countries for 1975–2011 suggest that elections increase natural resource rents. The incumbent uses these rents for expanding public spending and reducing taxes before elections. However, these electoral cycle effects are statistically significant only in young democracies. Our results also suggest that election effects are stronger in countries with limited access to free media, limited political checks and balances, and a presidential system.

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  • Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Election cycles in natural resource rents: Empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 79-93.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:121:y:2016:i:c:p:79-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gladys A. A. Nabieu & Godfred A. Bokpin & Achampong K. Osei & Patrick O. Asuming, 2021. "The effects of fiscal governance on fiscal performance in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5746-5761, October.
    3. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    4. Bram Gootjes & Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2021. "Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 1-30, July.
    5. Grégoire Rota-Graziosi & Islam Asif & Rabah Arezki, 2021. "Taming Private Leviathans : Regulation versus Taxation," Working Papers hal-03129746, HAL.
    6. Frank Bohn & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 817-841, October.
    7. Daniel Chachu, 2021. "Good institutions and tax revenue outcomes in resource-rich countries: When 'good' is not enough," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-75, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Seydou Coulibaly, 2019. "Impact of natural resource wealth on non-resource tax revenue mobilization in Africa: Do institutions and economic diversification matter?," Working Papers halshs-02108128, HAL.
    9. Tania Masi & Antonio Savoia & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Is there a fiscal resource curse? Resource rents, fiscal capacity, and political institutions in developing economies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-10, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Raveh, Ohad & Tsur, Yacov, 2020. "Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Ohad Raveh & Yacov Tsur, 2018. "Resource Windfalls and Public Debt: The Role of Political Myopia," OxCarre Working Papers 205, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    12. Adebayo, Eric & Lashitew, Addisu A. & Werker, Eric, 2021. "Is conventional wisdom about resource taxation correct? Mining evidence from transparency reporting," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Tania Masi & Antonio Savoia & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Is there a fiscal resource curse?: Resource rents, fiscal capacity, and political institutions in developing economies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-10, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Bitar, Mohammad & Hassan, M. Kabir & Walker, Thomas, 2017. "Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-44.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political budget cycles; Natural resources; Rent seeking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

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