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Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation

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  • Milan Bednař

    (University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This paper deals with the possible existence of political budget cycles (PBCs) within the European Union (EU). I use panel data for 28 EU countries from 1995 to 2016 and provide estimates based on dynamic panel regressions. I employ a system-GMM estimator complemented by the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to limit the number of instruments. The specifications include structural budget balances related to the potential GDP, thereby limiting the initial endogeneity. These measures capture the true motivation behind fiscal policies. The results suggest that the EU member states exhibit PBCs: (i) the intervention occurs in the year before elections and (ii) the structural budget balance to the potential GDP ratio is lower by –0.41 percentage points a year before elections. In addition, I have investigated the EU fragmentation in terms of the PBCs and selected 8 countries’ characteristics correlating to the existence of these cycles. These include lower GDP per capita, post-communist background, low tax burden, high perceived corruption, low levels of media freedom and internet usage, lower number of directly voted-in legislative officials, and a low parliamentary voter turnout.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Bednař, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 523-547, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:69:y:2019:i:4:p:523-547
    Note: The author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political budget cycles; fiscal policy; elections; European Union; dynamic panel estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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