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Temporal aggregation in political budget cycles

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  • Streb, Jorge M.
  • Lema, Daniel
  • Garofalo, Pablo

Abstract

While existing cross-country studies on political budget cycles rely on annual data, we build a panel with quarterly and monthly data from Latin American and OECD countries over the 1980-2005 period. Disaggregated data allow to center the electoral year more precisely, and show the effects are concentrated in a three-quarter window around elections. Cycles are statistically significant only in Latin America, but the pattern is similar to OECD countries: the budget surplus/GDP ratio falls in the election period and rises in the post-election period. In line with the logic of rational opportunistic manipulation, these effects cancel out.
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  • Streb, Jorge M. & Lema, Daniel & Garofalo, Pablo, 2012. "Temporal aggregation in political budget cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123247, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123247
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Vladan Ivanovic & Endrit Lami & Drini Imami, 2023. "Political Budget Cycles in Early Versus Regular Elections: The Case of Serbia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 551-581, September.
    3. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Pugh, Geoffrey & Hashi, Iraj, 2021. "Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    4. Andrew Q. Philips, 2016. "Seeing the forest through the trees: a meta-analysis of political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 313-341, September.
    5. Petrarca, Ilaria, 2014. "No news is costly news: The link between the diffusion of the press and public spending," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 68-85.
    6. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Kächelein, Holger, 2016. "Fuelling political fiscal cycles by opportunistic privatization in transition economies: The case of Albania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 220-231.
    7. Klien, Michael, 2014. "Tariff increases over the electoral cycle: A question of size and salience," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 228-242.
    8. Endrit Lami, 2023. "Political Budget Cycles in the Context of a Transition Economy: The Case of Albania," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(2), pages 221-262, June.
    9. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    10. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    11. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    12. Milan Bednař, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union: New Evidence of Fragmentation," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(4), pages 523-547, December.
    13. Daniel Lema & Jorge M. Streb, 2013. "Ciclos electorales en política fiscal," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 514, Universidad del CEMA.
    14. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Pablo Garofalo, 2013. "Electoral cycles in international reserves: Evidence from Latin America and the OECD," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 526, Universidad del CEMA.
    15. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    16. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    17. Isadora Sánchez-Torné & Macarena Pérez-Suárez & Juan Carlos Morán-Álvarez, 2020. "Una comparativa de la innovación de Espana y Rusia: ¿políticas bilaterales para la innovación?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 12(1), pages 201-233, June.
    18. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    19. Endrit Lami & Drini Imami, 2013. "Searching for Political Fiscal Cycles in Hungary," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(4), December.
    20. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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