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Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country

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  • Poonam Gupta
  • Arvind Panagariya

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecpo12038-abs-0001"> We offer the first test of the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections for a developing country, India. We generalize the Fair (1978) model to allow for multiple candidates and test it using cross-state data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Poonam Gupta & Arvind Panagariya, 2014. "Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 332-354, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:332-354
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecpo.2014.26.issue-2
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    1. Bornier Jean Magnan de & Norpoth H. & Lewis-Beck M.S. & Lafay J.D., 1991. "Economics and Politics The calculus of support," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 579-581, December.
    2. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2008. "How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2203-2220, December.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Howard Rosenthal, 1989. "Moderating Elections," NBER Working Papers 3072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Dutta, Bhaskar & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "How Do Indian Voters Respond to Candidates with Criminal Charges : Evidence from the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections," MPRA Paper 38417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stanley L. Winer & J. Stephen Ferris & Bharatee Bhusana Dash & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2021. "Political competitiveness and the private–public structure of public expenditure: a model and empirics for the Indian States," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(6), pages 1430-1471, December.
    3. Milan Vaishnav & Johnathan Guy, 2018. "Does Higher Turnout Hurt Incumbents? An Analysis of State Elections in India," Studies in Indian Politics, , vol. 6(1), pages 71-87, June.
    4. Gupta, Poonam, 2013. "What do the Voters Reward: Personality, Party or Performance?," MPRA Paper 53795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Heath, Oliver & Tillin, Louise & Mishra, Jyoti & Kumar, Sanjay & Venkateswaran, Sandhya, 2025. "Poor health: Credit and blame attribution in India’s multi-level democracy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Bharatee Bhusana Dash & J. Stephen Ferris, 2018. "Economic Performance and Electoral Volatility: Testing the Economic Voting Hypothesis on Indian States, 1957–2013," Carleton Economic Papers 18-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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