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The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  2. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  3. Pieter Nel & Renee van Eyden, 2026. "From News to Noise: Does Media Sentiment Drive Stock Market Volatility?," Working Papers 202605, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2025: Talsohle erreicht, Erholungssignale verdichten sich [German Economy in Summer 2025: Signs of recovery as economy bottoms out]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 125, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
  6. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
  7. Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Jingya & Wang, Jia & Si, Deng-Kui, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty, political connection and government subsidy: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  8. Hongru Zhang & Maoshan Tian, 2025. "Shadows of Uncertainty: Unraveling the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Tourism-Driven Energy Consumption in Macau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-20, April.
  9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  10. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  11. Arbolino, R. & Boffardi, R. & De Simone, L. & Di Caro, P., 2025. "Geopolitical risks and the effectiveness of the EU funds: Heterogeneity in country impact," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 199-212.
  12. Dirks, Maximilian W., 2025. "When two quarrel, the third rejoices: Windfall FDIs and the early winners of the Russian-Ukrainian war," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325433, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  13. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence Van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2024. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 413-458, February.
  14. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  15. Bastianin, Andrea & Casoli, Chiara & Galeotti, Marzio, 2023. "The connectedness of Energy Transition Metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  16. Christian Gréus & Philipp Heil & Niklas Potrafke & Ramona Schmid & Tuuli Tähtinen, 2025. "The Economic Consequences of Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," EconPol Policy Brief 79, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  17. Liow, Kim Hiang & Song, Jeongseop, 2020. "Dynamic interdependence of ASEAN5 with G5 stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  18. Yao, Shouyu & Li, Tianze & Liao, Jing & Chan, Kam C. & Liu, Xutang, 2025. "Transparency as the antidote: Do trade disputes intensify corporate earnings management?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  19. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  20. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  21. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Tariff Volatility and Tariff Policy in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 223302, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  22. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2025. "Heterogeneous price responses to trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from income-specific CPIs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
  23. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2019. "Populism, Political Risk and the Economy: Lessons from Italy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 989, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2020.
  24. Paul Bergin & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2025. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Stabilization of Tariff Shocks," NBER Working Papers 33845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Che, Yi & Lin, Donglin & Zhang, Yan, 2025. "Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  26. Yayi, Constant L., 2024. "Trade under trade policy uncertainty: The moderating roles of US preferential trade agreements and their heterogenous effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
  27. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," CEP Discussion Papers dp1842, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  28. Christian Garciga & James Mitchell, 2025. "Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-12, November.
  29. Haichao Fan & Guangyu Nie & Zhiwei Xu, 2023. "Market Uncertainty and International Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 450-478, December.
  30. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
  31. Haselmann, Rainer & Heider, Florian & Kaiser, Luis Enrique & Schlegel, Jonas & Tröger, Tobias, 2025. "The impact of geopolitical risks on the resilience of banks in the Banking Union," SAFE White Paper Series 115, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  32. Cocozza, Rosa & Gallo, Serena, 2025. "Firm-level reactions to trade policy risk: Evidence from the S&P 500," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
  33. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
  34. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  35. Gu, Xin & Zhu, Zixiang & Yu, Minli, 2021. "The macro effects of GPR and EPU indexes over the global oil market—Are the two types of uncertainty shock alike?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  36. Bree J. Lang & Pratish Patel, 2023. "Funding infrastructure under uncertainty: evidence from tax credit prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 635-677, June.
  37. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
  38. Giampiero M. Gallo & Demetrio Lacava & Edoardo Otranto, 2026. "Electoral Polls and Economic Uncertainty: an Analysis of the Last Two U.S. Presidential Elections," Papers 2601.21534, arXiv.org.
  39. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2022. "Backcasting world trade growth using data reduction methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3169-3191, October.
  40. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
  41. Li, Shuaibing & Ma, Yong, 2025. "News-based equity market uncertainty aligned: An informative predictor for gold market volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
  42. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  43. Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
  44. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  45. Haoyang Lu & Alistair Hunt, 2025. "Towards Sustainability: How Does Climate Policy Uncertainty Affect Regional Green Innovation in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-27, March.
  46. Mustafa Ahmed Hamed Mansour & Salem Hamad Aldawsari, 2026. "Quantifying the Spillover Effect of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on Economic Growth of BRICS: A Panel Data Investigation," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 30(1), pages 72-102, March.
  47. Ben Broadbent & Federico Di Pace & Thomas Drechsel & Richard Harrison & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  48. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2025. "The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  49. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Huang, Chun-Wei & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2025. "Corporate dividend behavior under uncertainty: A study of Chinese firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  50. Niu, Zibo & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "The role of uncertainty measures in volatility forecasting of the crude oil futures market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  51. Yi, Xiaofang & Shen, Yijuan & Cai, Yifei, 2025. "Cryptocurrency meets U.S. trade policy uncertainty in the Trump era: A quantile Granger causality test," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  52. Kim, Junhyong, 2025. "The impact of external uncertainty shocks on the Korean economy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 47(1), pages 19-66.
  53. Bergin, Paul R. & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2023. "The macroeconomic stabilization of tariff shocks: What is the optimal monetary response?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  54. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Mariem Brahim, 2026. "Climate risks and predictability of the conditional distributions of rare earth stock returns and volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, December.
  55. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Trade uncertainties and the hedging abilities of Bitcoin," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 49(3), September.
  56. Mac Mullen, Marcos & Woo, Soo Kyung, 2025. "Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  57. George A. Alessandria & Carter B. Mix, 2021. "Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 28904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Matthew A. Castle, 2024. "Renegotiating in good faith: How international treaty revisions can deepen cooperation," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 217-241, April.
  59. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  60. Juan Arismendi-Zambrano & Emmanuel Kypraios & Alessia Paccagnini, 2026. "Informativeness of the federal reserve chair communication’s sentiment on the monetary policy uncertainty," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 357(1), pages 633-677, February.
  61. Rym Ayadi & Giorgia Giovannetti & Enrico Marvasi & Giulio Vannelli & Chahir Zaki, 2022. "Demand and supply exposure through global value chains: Euro‐Mediterranean countries during COVID," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 637-656, March.
  62. Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2022. "Government policy approval and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 303-331.
  63. Tu, Wenjun & Du, Anna Min & Saddler, Sarah Borthwick, 2025. "Digital tax administration, investor risk perception, and stock return volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  64. Wengerek, Sascha Tobias & Uhde, André & Hippert, Benjamin, 2025. "Share price reactions to tariff imposition announcements during the first Trump administration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  65. Müller, Henrik & Blagov, Boris & Schmidt, Torsten & Rieger, Jonas & Jentsch, Carsten, 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  66. Cai, Yan & Li, Yanyun & Lin, Faqin & Yan, Wenshou, 2025. "The direct and indirect effects of trade policy uncertainty on the volatility of world agricultural prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  67. Michael Funke & Adrian Wende, 2021. "The US-China Phase One Trade Deal: An Economic Analysis of the Managed Trade Agreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 8945, CESifo.
  68. OÄŸuzhan Çepni & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Khuliso Ramabulana, 2023. "Time-Varying Spillover of US Trade War on the Growth of Emerging Economies," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 57(1), pages 167-181, Januaryâ€.
  69. Wang, Hui & Shen, Huayu & Tang, Xiaoyi & Wu, Zuofeng & Ma, Shuming, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm risk taking," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-364.
  70. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2021. "The effect of the US–China trade war on Chinese new firm entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  71. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Chada, Swechha, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
  73. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
  74. John Ballingall & Enrico Dorigo & James Hogan & Kirdan Lees, 2020. "A News-Based Approach to Monitoring Trade Policy Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy: The Case of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  75. Golitsis, Petros & Emmanouilidis, Kyriakos, 2025. "Temporal dynamics of uncertainty shocks on China's trade openness: A TVP-VAR estimation," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  76. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
  77. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Trade Policy Uncertainty Effects on Macro Economy and Financial Markets: An Integrated Survey and Empirical Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, January.
  78. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
  79. Dai, Xingyu & Yousaf, Imran & Wang, Jiqian & Wang, Qunwei & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2025. "The pass-through of macro variable to volatility co-movement among U.S. currency and commodity futures markets system," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  80. Ze Chen & Qiming Yang & Zhihao Wu & Jiajun Min, 2024. "A timely helping hand: China‐U.S. Trade War, government subsidy, and firm innovation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(6), pages 3564-3588, September.
  81. Yahyaei, Hamid & Singh, Abhay & Smith, Tom, 2025. "How does the smart money feel? Hedge fund sentiment, returns, and the business cycle," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
  82. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
  83. Shafiullah, Muhammad & Miah, Mohammad Dulal & Alam, Md Samsul & Atif, Muhammad, 2021. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect renewable energy consumption?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1500-1521.
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  119. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji & Demir, Ender, 2025. "Higher-order co-moment contagion during Trump’s second presidential term: A trade policy uncertainty perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  120. Sha, Feiyun & Ding, Changxu & Zheng, Xiaoyu & Wang, Jun & Tao, Yafang, 2025. "Weathering the policy Storm: How trade uncertainty shapes firm financial performance through innovation and operations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
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  122. Ito, Arata & Sato, Masahiro & Ota, Rui, 2025. "A novel content-based approach to measuring monetary policy uncertainty using fine-tuned LLMs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  123. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  124. Gian Paulo Soave, 2020. "International Drivers of Policy Uncertainty in Emerging Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 716-726.
  125. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  126. Sanyal, Anirban, 2025. "Caught in the crossfire: How trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  127. Mohammad Al-Shboul & Aktham Maghyereh, 2023. "Did real economic uncertainty drive risk connectedness in the oil–stock nexus during the COVID-19 outbreak? A partial wavelet coherence analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
  128. Ziran Ding, 2022. "Firm heterogeneity, variable markups, and multinational production: A review from trade policy perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1311-1357, December.
  129. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
  130. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Michele Modugno & Berardino Palazzo & Carlos Ramírez, 2026. "Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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