IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201948.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Uncertainties and the Hedging Abilities of Bitcoin

Author

Listed:
  • Elie Bouri

    (USEK Business School, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon)

  • Konstantinos Gkillas

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Patras − University Campus, Rio, P.O. Box 1391, 26500 Patras, Greece)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

In this paper, we use daily data from October 2011 to May 2019 to estimate the monthly realized correlation between stock returns of the United States (US) and Bitcoin returns. Then, we relate the realized correlation with a news-based measure of the growth of trade uncertainty for the US. Our results show that the realized correlation is negatively impacted by increases in trade uncertainty, suggesting that Bitcoin can act as a hedge relative to the US stock market in the wake of heightened trade policy-related uncertainties, and can provide diversification benefits for investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Trade Uncertainties and the Hedging Abilities of Bitcoin," Working Papers 201948, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    3. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    4. Michael McAleer, 2019. "What They Did Not Tell You about Algebraic (Non-) Existence, Mathematical (IR-)Regularity, and (Non-) Asymptotic Properties of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, April.
    5. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    6. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    7. Michael McAleer, 2019. "What They Did Not Tell You about Algebraic (Non-) Existence, Mathematical (IR-)Regularity and (Non-) Asymptotic Properties of the Full BEKK Dynamic Conditional Covariance Model," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-7, April.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Saha, Shrabani, 2018. "The properties of realized volatility and realized correlation: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 343-359.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    11. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    13. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    14. Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles & Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "Optimal vs naïve diversification in cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 93-96.
    17. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Demir, Ender & Akron, Sagi, 2019. "The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Sang Hoon Kang & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Regime specific spillover across cryptocurrencies and the role of COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli, 2020. "Bitcoin's innovative aspects, return volatility and uncertainty shocks," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(3), pages 224-245.
    3. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Chi keung marco Lau & David Roubaud, 2021. "Risk aversion and Bitcoin returns in extreme quantiles," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1374-1386.
    4. Caferra, Rocco, 2020. "Good vibes only: The crypto-optimistic behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Ahmad, Tanveer & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The pricing of bad contagion in cryptocurrencies: A four-factor pricing model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    6. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Wang, Peijin & Zhang, Hongwei & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness and hedging performance in global stock markets: Bitcoin versus conventional hedges," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Bitcoin: The Role of the Trade War," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 29-53, January.
    9. Khaled Mokni & Elie Bouri & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Does Bitcoin Hedge Categorical Economic Uncertainty? A Quantile Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    10. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Bitcoin: A safe haven asset and a winner amid political and economic uncertainties in the US?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fang, Tong & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine & Maouchi, Youcef, 2020. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between cryptocurrencies and conventional assets: Implications for financial investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 198-217.
    3. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    4. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "OPEC news and jumps in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Kizys, Renatas & Tsend-Ayush, Bayasgalan, 2020. "Momentum trading in cryptocurrencies: Short-term returns and diversification benefits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Khaled Mokni & Elie Bouri & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Does Bitcoin Hedge Categorical Economic Uncertainty? A Quantile Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    9. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Eross, Andrea & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "The intraday dynamics of bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-81.
    11. Vasilios Plakandaras & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin Returns: Is there a Role for the U.S. – China Trade War?," Working Papers 201980, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Sercan Demiralay & Selçuk Bayracı, 2021. "Should stock investors include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios after all? Evidence from a conditional diversification benefits measure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6188-6204, October.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    14. Yin, Libo & Nie, Jing & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Understanding cryptocurrency volatility: The role of oil market shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-253.
    15. Beneki, Christina & Koulis, Alexandros & Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2019. "Investigating volatility transmission and hedging properties between Bitcoin and Ethereum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 219-227.
    16. Maurice Omane-Adjepong & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2020. "Dynamic Linkages and Economic Role of Leading Cryptocurrencies in an Emerging Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 537-585, December.
    17. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    18. Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "When, where, and how economic policy uncertainty predicts Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 65-73.
    19. Barroso, Pedro & Boons, Martijn & Karehnke, Paul, 2021. "Time-varying state variable risk premia in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 428-451.
    20. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Bitcoin-US stock nexus," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US stock market; Bitcoin; realized correlation; trade uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201948. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.