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How does the smart money feel? Hedge fund sentiment, returns, and the business cycle

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  • Yahyaei, Hamid
  • Singh, Abhay
  • Smith, Tom

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the business cycle, sentiment, and the returns of listed U.S. hedge funds. Using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, we construct a novel measure of hedge fund sentiment by mapping fund-level sentiment scores to hand-collected portfolio manager commentaries. Our empirical analysis shows that business cycle fluctuations exert the strongest influence on hedge fund sentiment, outweighing the effects of geopolitical, trade, and climate policy risks. Moreover, hedge fund sentiment exhibits explanatory power for the cross-section of returns, where a one-unit improvement in sentiment (from neutral to positive) is associated with an average annual return increase of approximately 0.74 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahyaei, Hamid & Singh, Abhay & Smith, Tom, 2025. "How does the smart money feel? Hedge fund sentiment, returns, and the business cycle," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:47:y:2025:i:c:s2214635025000632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2025.101082
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    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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