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Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns

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Abstract

We develop a market-based measure of firms' and industries' exposure to foreign trade disruptions. Combining this approach with detailed supervisory data, we quantify large U.S. banks' exposure to such disruptions and propose a novel bank-level vulnerability index. We show that banks with greater exposure experienced significantly larger stock price declines following the April 2025 tariff announcements. Our vulnerability index explains 18% of the cross-sectional variation in bank returns during this episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Michele Modugno & Berardino Palazzo & Carlos Ramírez, 2026. "Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:102841
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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