IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v80y2025ics1062940825001548.html

Corporate investment amid trade policy uncertainty: Past lessons, future presidency

Author

Listed:
  • Keshav, Vaibhav

Abstract

What insights can we glean from the prior trade conflict between the US and China amidst its prominence in the 2025–2028 presidential term? Between 2016 and 2019, the US–China trade dispute, with US tariffs and Chinese retaliation, surged trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Departing from prior studies focusing on overall economic policy uncertainty (EPU), this study reports an inverse causal relation between aggregate and firm-level TPU and corporate investment by employing a novel instrumental variable. Apart from confirming the real options channel, I identify a foreign exchange channel, highlighting the susceptibility of firms to TPU based on exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Lastly, I discuss the implications of this study in the context of the upcoming US presidential elections and beyond.

Suggested Citation

  • Keshav, Vaibhav, 2025. "Corporate investment amid trade policy uncertainty: Past lessons, future presidency," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825001548
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940825001548
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2025.102514?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    2. Tobias Burggraf & Ralf Fendel & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2020. "Political news and stock prices: evidence from Trump’s trade war," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1485-1488, October.
    3. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    4. Nick Bloom, 2007. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 250-255, May.
    5. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    6. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    7. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness in foreign exchange markets: The role of trade policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-199.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Zhiguo He, 2014. "A Theory of Debt Maturity: The Long and Short of Debt Overhang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 719-762, April.
    9. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, May.
    10. Anirban Basu & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano & Sergio Urzua, 2007. "Use of instrumental variables in the presence of heterogeneity and self-selection: an application to treatments of breast cancer patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(11), pages 1133-1157.
    11. Ahmad H. Juma’h & Yazan Alnsour, 2018. "Using Social Media Analytics: The Effect of President Trump’s Tweets On Companies’ Performance," Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 100-121, March.
    12. Richard Baldwin & Rebecca Freeman & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2023. "Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Reliance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(2 (Fall)), pages 79-167.
    13. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    14. Amore, Mario Daniele & Minichilli, Alessandro, 2018. "Local Political Uncertainty, Family Control, and Investment Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1781-1804, August.
    15. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2019. "Brexit and the macroeconomic impact of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 175-195.
    16. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    17. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    18. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    20. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    21. Heleen Brans & Bert Scholtens, 2020. "Under his thumb the effect of president Donald Trump’s Twitter messages on the US stock market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-11, March.
    22. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    23. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    24. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    25. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    26. Anirban Basu & James J. Heckman & Salvador Navarro‐Lozano & Sergio Urzua, 2007. "Use of instrumental variables in the presence of heterogeneity and self‐selection: an application to treatments of breast cancer patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(11), pages 1133-1157, November.
    27. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    28. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    29. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1998. "Financing Constraints And Inventory Investment: A Comparative Study With High-Frequency Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 513-519, November.
    30. Abel, Andrew B., 1984. "The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 39-53, February.
    31. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    32. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    33. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    34. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    35. Phan, Hieu V. & Nguyen, Nam H. & Nguyen, Hien T. & Hegde, Shantaram, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 71-82.
    36. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    37. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    38. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    39. Qi Ge & Alexander Kurov & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2019. "Do Investors Care About Presidential Company‐Specific Tweets?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 213-242, July.
    40. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    41. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    42. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    43. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    44. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    45. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
    46. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    47. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    48. Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Investment and Sales: Some Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    50. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    51. Abel, Andrew B, 1985. "A Stochastic Model of Investment, Marginal q and the Market Value of the Firm," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 305-322, June.
    52. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    53. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    54. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Jesse Siminitz, 2018. "Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2018/281, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    56. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    57. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
    58. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    59. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
    60. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    61. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    62. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    63. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    64. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azimli, Asil, 2022. "The impact of policy, political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    2. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    3. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Hu, Lifang, 2025. "Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    5. Kiosses, Nikolaos & Leventis, Stergios & Subeniotis, Demetres & Tampakoudis, Ioannis, 2025. "The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    7. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty around the world: Implications for Vietnam," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Xiaoqiong Wang & Siqi Wei & Xiaoyang Zhu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and heterogeneous institutional investor horizons," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 39-67, January.
    9. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Cheng, Maoyong & Meng, Yu & Jin, Justin & Nainar, S.M. Khalid, 2024. "Leadership vacuum and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Afzali, Mansoor & Ҫolak, Gönül & Fu, Mengchuan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2023. "The interplay between uncertainty, managerial decision making, and firm value: Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Basha, Shabeen Afsar & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2025. "Does political risk exacerbate climate risk? Firm-level evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    14. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Emmanuel Adegbite & Ernest Ezeani & Chizindu Wonu & Henry Mumbi, 2024. "Political uncertainty and stock market liquidity, size, and transaction cost: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2030-2048, April.
    15. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    16. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    17. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    19. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    20. Xiangyuan Meng & Haoge Guo & Jie Li, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4491-4529, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825001548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.