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Investment and Sales: Some Empirical Evidence

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  • Andrew B. Abel
  • Olivier J. Blanchard

Abstract

This paper attempts to give a structural interpretation to the distributed lag of sales on investment at the two-digit level in US manufacturing. It first presents a simple model which captures the various sources of lags and their respective implications. It then estimates the model, using both data on investment and sales as well as direct evidence on the sources of lags. The spirit of the paper is exploratory ; the model is used mainly as a vehicle to construct, present and interpret the data. We find that the following model can roughly generate the distributed lag structure found in the data. Firms face delivery lags of 3 quarters. They also face adjustment costs, which lead them to take into account expected future sales, with discount factor -9 when constructing the desired capital stock, and to close about 5% of the gap between actual and desired capital per quarter. They pay for orders at a constant rate between the time of order and that of delivery. The model is however not very successful in explaining differences in dynamics across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1986. "Investment and Sales: Some Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2050
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjeev Kumar & K. S. Ranjani, 2018. "Financial constraints and investment decisions of listed Indian manufacturing firms," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar & Das, Pranab Kumar & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2012. "A stochastic frontier approach to modelling financial constraints in firms: An application to India," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1311-1319.
    3. Tsoukalas, John D., 2011. "Time to build capital: Revisiting investment-cash-flow sensitivities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1000-1016, July.
    4. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    5. Gómez, Miguel García-Posada, 2018. "Credit constraints, firm investment and growth: evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 2126, European Central Bank.
    6. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Wei Lin & Chi-Chuan Lee, 0. "The impact of peer effects and economic policy-related uncertainty on U.S. life insurers' investment decisions," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-31.
    7. Miguel García-Posada Gómez, 2018. "Credit constraints, firms investment and growth evidence from survey data," Working Papers 1808, Banco de España.
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Wei Lin & Chi-Chuan Lee, 2021. "The impact of peer effects and economic policy-related uncertainty on U.S. life insurers' investment decisions," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(1), pages 22-52, January.
    9. Schoder, Christian, 2013. "Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-27.
    10. Hamza Almustafa & Imad Jabbouri & Ploypailin Kijkasiwat, 2023. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Leverage, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from U.S. Firms," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    12. Tadesse Getacher Engida & Christopher F. Parmeter & Xudong Rao & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink, 2022. "Investment Inefficiency and Corporate Social Responsibility," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 95-108, August.
    13. Hussain, Adam, 2023. "Effect of Tax Cut on Investment: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing firms," Working Papers 23/390, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Zhou, Kexuan & Kumar, Sanjay & Yu, Linhui & Jiang, Xinlin, 2021. "The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc, 2001. "Investment policy, internal financing and ownership concentration in the UK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 257-284, September.
    16. Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2001. "Time-To-Build and Convex Adjustment Costs," IMF Working Papers 2001/009, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    18. Agnieszka Slomka-Golebiowska, 2014. "Bankers on boards as corporate governance mechanism: evidence from Poland," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1040, November.
    19. Shams, Syed & Gunaskerage, Abeyratna & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and acquisition performance: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 286-308.
    20. Demir, FIrat, 2009. "Financial liberalization, private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 314-324, March.
    21. Giorgio Calcagnini & Germana Giombini & Enrico Saltari, 2009. "Firms? Investment in the Presence of Labor and Financial Market Imperfections," Working Papers 0901, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2009.
    22. Debarati Ghosh & Meghna Dutta, 2021. "Investment behaviour under financial constraints: a study of Indian firms," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(8), pages 1-15, August.
    23. Rossana, Robert J., 1988. "On The Size of Adjustment Parameters in Inventory Investment Equations," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259442, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    24. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2023. "The interplay between uncertainty, managerial decision making, and firm value: Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

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