Adapting to the evolving climate policy environment through green technology diversification: An empirical study of Chinese cities

While climate policy increasingly guides green innovation, it may lead to adjustment in the technological trajectories—particularly the shift from specialization to diversification. Anchored in adaptive innovation theory, this study investigates how complex climate policy environments shape the evolution of green technology across 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2022.The empirical findings show that more dynamic and ambiguous climate policy significantly enhances the diversification of green technologies across cities. Mechanism analysis reveals that this shift is driven by an expanded scale of innovation, increased cross-sectoral collaboration, broader knowledge exploration and intensifying inter-firm competition. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis indicates that diversification effects are stronger in less-developed and non-resource-based cities, while cities with higher fiscal autonomy tend to maintain more specialized innovation paths. Further analyses reveal that complex policy environments also stimulate long-term and high-value innovation investment. These results underscore the structural influence of climate policy on urban green innovation strategies. The study provides empirical evidence that flexible, differentiated, and city-sensitive policy frameworks can enhance adaptive innovation pathways for a more resilient green transition.