IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/123862.html

The Nexus between Government Intervention and Economic Uncertainty During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Rabhi, Ayoub
  • haoudi, amina
  • Bennagem Touati, Ali

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic urged governments around the world to intervene and respond with different measures aiming to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate the global economic impact, nevertheless, uncertainty skyrocketed and dominated the world economy. In this paper, we examine the relationship between government intervention and economic uncertainty amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Using monthly data from January 2020 to September 2020 from 22 countries, we found that economic uncertainty during the first nine months of the pandemic reacted more to government intervention than to the number of COVID-19 cases, we also found that the response to face the pandemic had also different effects on economic uncertainty depending on the type of actions, since the containment policies increased economic uncertainty while the economic support to households’ action decreased it. Our results show that government intervention in different countries around the world had both positive and negative impacts on economic uncertainty and this has an important conclusion about government intervention effects on the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabhi, Ayoub & haoudi, amina & Bennagem Touati, Ali, 2021. "The Nexus between Government Intervention and Economic Uncertainty During the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 123862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123862
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/123862/1/MPRA_paper_123862.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    4. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    5. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    8. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    10. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    11. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    13. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Peng-Fei Dai & Xiong Xiong & Zhifeng Liu & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Jianjun Sun, 2021. "Preventing crash in stock market: The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID-19," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Dimitris Anastasiou & Antonis Ballis & Christos Kallandranis & Ioannis Vlassas, 2026. "Positive COVID-19 related sentiment, economic uncertainty & risk management implications," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Castillo, Brenda & León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "Backtesting VaR under the COVID-19 sudden changes in volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    6. Tang, Kai & Cheng, Yuxiang, 2025. "CFO overseas experience and stock price crash risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Luu Duc Huynh, Toan, 2020. "The effect of uncertainty on the precious metals market: New insights from Transfer Entropy and Neural Network VAR," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    11. Müller, Henrik & Blagov, Boris & Schmidt, Torsten & Rieger, Jonas & Jentsch, Carsten, 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    14. Shashank Kathpal & Asif Akhtar & Asma Zaheer & Mohd Naved Khan, 2021. "Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(4), pages 305-316, December.
    15. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Le, Thi Ngoc Lan & Ghabri, Yosra & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2023. "Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    18. Wang, Dong & Li, Ping & Huang, Lixin, 2022. "Time-frequency volatility spillovers between major international financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    19. Dou, Yue & Li, Yiying & Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Dynamic linkages between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market: Does Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Buu Kiem Dang & Duc Toan Vo & Nguyen Tuyet Minh Ha, 2025. "The impact of economic uncertainty and institutional quality on bank profitability: global evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1-29, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.