Do the differences matter? A multi-model assessment of uncertainty in EU agricultural futures

Economic models are widely used to assess future developments in EU agriculture, yet their baseline projections often differ due to structural and behavioral assumptions. This paper compares harmonized medium- to long-term projections from six established modelling frameworks (AGLINKCOSIMO, AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and MAGNET). Using common assumptions for population, economic growth, yield trends and current policies, we assess the consistency of projected developments in production, land use, emissions, prices and trade at EU, Member State and global levels. The comparison identifies several robust signals at aggregate EU level, including yield-driven output growth, moderate land contraction and modest declines in agricultural emissions. At the same time, substantial divergence emerges in trade balances, commodity composition and selected crop-specific land-use outcomes, while spatial patterns at Member State level are more heterogeneous than EU aggregates suggest. We further examine how external shocks—higher trade barriers, sustained energy and fertilizer price increases, and stronger climate impacts—affect model dispersion. The results clarify where projections are structurally robust and where outcomes are sensitive to modelling architecture, thereby indicating when single-model assessments provide reliable guidance and when multi-model evidence is particularly valuable for policy interpretation.