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Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

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  • Vos, Rob
  • Glauber, Joseph
  • Hebebrand, Charlotte
  • Rice, Brendan

Abstract

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Vos, Rob & Glauber, Joseph & Hebebrand, Charlotte & Rice, Brendan, 2025. "Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:133:y:2025:i:c:s030691922400201x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willwerth, Hanna S. & Khaemba, Colleta N. & Serra, Teresa & Michelson, Hope C. & Rutsaert, Pieter & Donovan, Jason, 2025. "Global shocks and local sellers: Kenyan fertilizer markets’ response to the fuel-fertilizer-food price crisis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Morão, Hugo, 2025. "The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Ulimwengu, John M. & Hema, Aboubacar & Marivoet, Wim & Omamo, Steven Were, 2025. "Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us," PACE policy research papers 174708, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    6. Abay, Kibrom A. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Chivenge, Pauline & Spielman, David J., 2025. "Fertilizer, soil health, and economic shocks: A synthesis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Ulimwengu, John M. & Hema, Aboubacar & Marivoet, Wim & Omamo, Steven Were, 2025. "Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us," Policy briefs 174708, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Amankwah, Akuffo & Ambel, Alemayehu & Gourlay, Sydney & Kilic, Talip & Markhof, Yannick & Wollburg, Philip, 2025. "Smallholder farming, fertilizer use, and the polycrisis period: Cross-country evidence from longitudinal surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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