IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10842.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fertilizer Price Shocks in Smallholder Agriculture : Cross-Country Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Amankwah,Akuffo
  • Ambel,Alemayehu A.
  • Gourlay,Sydney
  • Kilic,Talip
  • Markhof,Yannick Valentin
  • Wollburg,Philip Randolph

Abstract

Since 2020, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced disruptions to agricultural activities due to the adverse effects of multiple global crises. Notably, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in inorganic fertilizer prices, which had potentially significant impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture sector given that most countries in the region are net importers of inorganic fertilizers and the Russian Federation is the world’s largest exporter. Using high-frequency longitudinal phone survey data spanning four years from six Sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the dynamics of smallholder agriculture against the backdrop of these crises, with particular focus on prices, availability, and use of inorganic fertilizer, as well as the strategies employed by farmers to cope with high fertilizer prices and other accessibility constraints. The results show that inorganic fertilizer prices have increased in the region since 2020, forcing smallholder farmers to adopt coping mechanisms that are less productivity-enhancing, making them even more susceptible to future crises. Specifically, farming households reduced the quantity of inorganic fertilizer applied, by applying it at lower rates or to a smaller area. In some cases, households sold assets or borrowed money to cope with the high prices of inorganic fertilizers. This calls for policies to help smallholder farmers in the region to build strong support systems to be more resilient and better able to cope with the adverse effects of rising inorganic fertilizer prices during polycrises and related shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Amankwah,Akuffo & Ambel,Alemayehu A. & Gourlay,Sydney & Kilic,Talip & Markhof,Yannick Valentin & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2024. "Fertilizer Price Shocks in Smallholder Agriculture : Cross-Country Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10842, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10842
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099412307092441567/pdf/IDU173affa201e3db14e931a1d4143913f4f7024.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhiying Xu & Zhengfei Guan & T.S. Jayne & Roy Black, 2009. "Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 437-446, July.
    2. David Amaglobeli & Mengfei Gu & Emine Hanedar & Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Celine Thevenot, 2023. "Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices," IMF Working Papers 2023/074, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ambel,Alemayehu A. & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Tsegay,Asmelash Haile, 2021. "Reducing Bias in Phone Survey Samples : Effectiveness of Reweighting Techniques Using Face-to-Face Surveys as Frames in Four African Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9676, The World Bank.
    4. T.S. Jayne & Shahidur Rashid, 2013. "Input subsidy programs in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of recent evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(6), pages 547-562, November.
    5. Davis, Benjamin & Di Giuseppe, Stefania & Zezza, Alberto, 2017. "Are African households (not) leaving agriculture? Patterns of households’ income sources in rural Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 153-174.
    6. Alberto Zezza & Kevin McGee & Philip Wollburg & Thomas Assefa & Sydney Gourlay, 2023. "From necessity to opportunity: lessons for integrating phone and in-person data collection," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(4), pages 1364-1400.
    7. Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2017. "Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 12-25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adu-Baffour, Ferdinand & Daum, Thomas & Birner, Regina, 2018. "Can Big Companies’ Initiatives to Promote Mechanization Benefit Small Farms in Africa? A Case Study from Zambia," Discussion Papers 273521, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Raymond Boadi Frempong, 2023. "Do subsidies on seed and fertilizer lead to child labour? Evidence from Malawi," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(2), March.
    3. Isabel Lambrecht & Monica Schuster & Sarah Asare Samwini & Laura Pelleriaux, 2018. "Changing gender roles in agriculture? Evidence from 20 years of data in Ghana," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 691-710, November.
    4. Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, 2017. "Is fertiliser use inconsistent with expected profit maximization in sub-Saharan Africa? “Evidence from Nigeria”," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 22-44, February.
    5. Fujimoto, Takefumi & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "Do Fertilizer and Seed Subsidies Strengthen Farmers' Market Participation? the Impact of Tanzania NAIVS on Farmers' Purchase of Agricultural Inputs and Their Maize-Selling Activities," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315044, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O. & Jayne, Thomas & Muyanga, Milu & Sanou, Awa, 2017. "Are African Farmers Experiencing Improved Incentives To Use Fertilizer?," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 270632, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    7. Tebogo B. Seleka, 2022. "Old wine in a new bottle? Impact of the ISPAAD input subsidy program on the subsistence economy in Botswana," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 298-322, February.
    8. Porteous, Obie, 2020. "Trade and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Michelson, Hope & Gourlay, Sydney & Lybbert, Travis & Wollburg, Philip, 2023. "Review: Purchased agricultural input quality and small farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Malacarne, J.G. & Paul, L.A., 2022. "Do the benefits of improved management practices to nutritional outcomes “dry up” in the presence of drought? Evidence from East Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.
    12. Vorlaufer, Tobias & Falk, Thomas & Dufhues, Thomas & Kirk, Michael, 2017. "Payments for ecosystem services and agricultural intensification: Evidence from a choice experiment on deforestation in Zambia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 95-105.
    13. Nicole M. Mason & Ayala Wineman & Solomon T. Tembo, 2020. "Reducing poverty by ‘ignoring the experts’? Evidence on input subsidies in Zambia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(5), pages 1157-1172, October.
    14. Darko,Francis Addeah, 2024. "Should Farm Input Subsidy Programs Target Poor or Non-Poor Farmers ? Evidence from Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10860, The World Bank.
    15. William J. Burke & Thom. S. Jayne & J. Roy Black, 2017. "Factors explaining the low and variable profitability of fertilizer application to maize in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 115-126, January.
    16. Kibrom A. Abay, 2020. "Measurement errors in agricultural data and their implications on marginal returns to modern agricultural inputs," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 323-341, May.
    17. Holden, Stein T., 2018. "The Economics of Fertilizer Subsidies," CLTS Working Papers 9/18, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    18. Mwale, Martin Limbikani, 2022. "Unintended consequences of farm input subsidies: women’s contraceptive usage and knock-on effects on children," MPRA Paper 112689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Sydney Gourlay & Talip Kilic, 2023. "Is dirt cheap? The economic costs of failing to meet soil health requirements on smallholder farms," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(6), pages 793-818, November.
    20. Lunduka, R. & Kassie, G. & Tahirou, A. & Babu, S., 2018. "Do households that sell their surplus maize reinvest in improved maize seed? Case of southern Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277378, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10842. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.