Old wine in a new bottle? Impact of the ISPAAD input subsidy program on the subsistence economy in Botswana

Input subsidy programs (ISPs) are an important part of agricultural development strategy in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet impact assessments of ISPs in SSA have been dominated by Malawi and Zambia programs. This article adds to the growing literature by estimating the impact of the Integrated Support Program for Arable Agriculture Development (ISPAAD) on crop production in Botswana's subsistence economy, using panel data for five agricultural regions and the period of 1978/1979 to 2013/2014. The article also assesses program benefits (relative to public costs) and sustainability. Results show that the program has induced increases of 78%, 87%, 40%, 168%, and 46% in total acreage, cereal acreage, non‐cereal acreage, cereal output, and cereal yields, respectively. However, the value of crops produced was equivalent to only 51% of public expenditure on land cultivation and seasonal inputs. Moreover, the ratio of the value of incremental cereals produced to program expenditure on cereals was estimated at 26%. Therefore, ISPAAD’s positive impacts on crop production cannot be sustained beyond the program implementation period. Some farmers would exit if they were to directly bear the costs of land preparation, let alone seasonal inputs.