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Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
  2. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  3. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  4. Elisa Rubbo, 2023. "Networks, Phillips Curves, and Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1417-1455, July.
  5. Hillebrand, Eric & Lukas, Manuel & Wei, Wei, 2021. "Bagging weak predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 237-254.
  6. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Lee, Byoungchan, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8878h9r2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
  8. Cai, Zongwu & Juhl, Ted, 2023. "The distribution of rolling regression estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1447-1463.
  9. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2023. "Bayesian Dynamic Variable Selection In High Dimensions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1047-1074, August.
  10. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
  11. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 867-886, August.
  12. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
  13. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
  14. Dr. Christian Hepenstrick & Jason Blunier, 2022. "What were they thinking? Estimating the quarterly forecasts underlying annual growth projections," Working Papers 2022-05, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Shobande, Olatunji A. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "The Critical Role of Education and ICT in Promoting Environmental Sustainability in Eastern and Southern Africa: A Panel VAR Approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  16. Gao, Shen & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "Forecasting natural gas prices using highly flexible time-varying parameter models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  17. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 1961-2000, December.
  18. Martínez-García Enrique, 2018. "Modeling time-variation over the business cycle (1960–2017): an international perspective," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
  19. Hülya Saygılı & Aysun Türkvatan, 2023. "Tradable and non-tradable inflation in Turkey: asymmetric responses to global factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 973-1006, August.
  20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
  21. Garcia-Hiernaux, Alfredo & Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T. & Guerrero, David E., 2023. "Eurozone prices: A tale of convergence and divergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  22. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  23. Adams, Patrick A. & Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2021. "Forecasting macroeconomic risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1173-1191.
  24. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  25. Pami Dua & Deepika Goel, 2021. "Inflation Persistence in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 525-553, September.
  26. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
  27. Patrick F»Ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2-3), pages 289-323, March.
  28. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
  29. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  30. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
  31. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
  32. Niko Hauzenberger, 2020. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Papers 2006.10088, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
  33. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
  34. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," DEM Working Papers Series 213, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  35. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  36. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  37. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Kapoor, Mrigankshi, 2020. "Forecasting Consumer Price Index Inflation in India: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Vs. Dynamic Factor Model Approach for Non-Stationary Time Series," Working Papers 20/323, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  38. John O’Trakoun, 2023. "An alternative measure of core inflation: the Trimmed Persistence PCE price index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 205-223, October.
  39. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  40. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit," Working Paper Series WP 2022-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  41. Barigozzi, Matteo & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2020. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 5149-5187.
  42. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  43. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," NBER Working Papers 28836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
  45. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
  46. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
  47. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2021. "Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-7, October.
  48. Kazeem O. Isah & Abdulkader C. Mahomedy & Elias A. Udeaja & Ojo J. Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubu & Danmecca Musa, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price–exchange rate–asymmetry perspectives," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 329-348, September.
  49. Adriana Cornea‐Madeira & João Madeira, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Switching Expectations in UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 651-673, June.
  50. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Fornero, Jorge & Sansone, Andrés, 2023. "A proposal for constructing and evaluating core inflation measures," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(3).
  51. Barkan, Oren & Benchimol, Jonathan & Caspi, Itamar & Cohen, Eliya & Hammer, Allon & Koenigstein, Noam, 2023. "Forecasting CPI inflation components with Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1145-1162.
  52. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  53. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
  54. Macias, Paweł & Stelmasiak, Damian & Szafranek, Karol, 2023. "Nowcasting food inflation with a massive amount of online prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 809-826.
  55. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  56. Siklos, Pierre L., 2021. "The macroeconomic response to real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
  57. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
  58. Trucíos, Carlos & Mazzeu, João H.G. & Hotta, Luiz K. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & Hallin, Marc, 2021. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: Identification, estimation, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1520-1534.
  59. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
  60. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
  61. Nguyen Anh D. M. & Pavlidis Efthymios G. & Peel David A., 2018. "Modeling changes in US monetary policy with a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-17, December.
  62. Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  63. Hauzenberger Niko & Huber Florian & Pfarrhofer Michael & Zörner Thomas O., 2021. "Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
  64. Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
  65. Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
  66. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
  67. Fan, Xuecheng & Xu, Zeshui & Qin, Yong & Škare, Marinko, 2023. "Quantifying the short- and long-run impact of inflation-related price volatility on knowledge asset investment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  68. Maria Elena Bontempi & Michele Frigeri & Roberto Golinelli & Matteo Squadrani, 2021. "EURQ: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 969-1015, October.
  69. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  70. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  71. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha, 2023. "The Dynamic Persistence of Economic Shocks," Papers 2306.01511, arXiv.org.
  72. Gunter, Samara & Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2021. "Non-linear effects of tax changes on output: The role of the initial level of taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  73. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "UK Inflation Forecasts since the Thirteenth Century," Working Paper 1454, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  74. Neil Shephard, 2013. "Martingale unobserved component models," Economics Series Working Papers 644, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  75. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
  76. Francisco Arizala & Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
  77. Pär Österholm & Aubrey Poon, 2023. "Trend Inflation in Sweden," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4707-4716, October.
  78. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam & Choudhary, Rishabh, 2021. "Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 77-141.
  79. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Inflation and Unit Labor Cost," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s2), pages 111-149, December.
  80. Luca Benati, 2008. "The “Great Moderation” in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, February.
  81. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  82. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Deb, Pragyan & Furceri, Davide & Jiménez, Daniel & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2023. "Shipping costs and inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  83. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
  84. Rojas, Diego & Vegh, Carlos & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  85. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Hadiza Sa'id, 2021. "Improving forecasting accuracy of the Phillips curve in OECD countries: The role of commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2946-2975, April.
  86. Korobilis, Dimitris & Landau, Bettina & Musso, Alberto & Phella, Anthoulla, 2021. "The time-varying evolution of inflation risks," Working Paper Series 2600, European Central Bank.
  87. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
  88. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
  89. Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
  90. Niesert, Robin F. & Oorschot, Jochem A. & Veldhuisen, Christian P. & Brons, Kester & Lange, Rutger-Jan, 2020. "Can Google search data help predict macroeconomic series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1163-1172.
  91. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 673-702, November.
  92. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Mikael Frenette & Karin Klieber, 2023. "From Reactive to Proactive Volatility Modeling with Hemisphere Neural Networks," Papers 2311.16333, arXiv.org.
  93. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Dynamic shrinkage in time‐varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 262-270, March.
  94. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  95. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
  96. Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh & Afees Salisu & Victor Oboh & Nuruddeen Usman, 2023. "A test for the contributions of urban and rural inflation to inflation persistence in Nigeria," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 222-246, May.
  97. Christophe Andre & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Time-Varying Spillovers between Housing Sentiment and Housing Market in the United States," Working Papers 202091, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  98. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "The price of crude oil and (conditional) out-of-sample predictability of world industrial production," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  99. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
  100. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  101. Álvarez, Luis J. & Correa-López, Mónica, 2020. "Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  102. Kapinos, Pavel & Kishor, N. Kundan & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Dynamic comovement among banks, systemic risk, and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  103. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  104. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  105. Kishor, N. Kundan & Pratap, Bhanu, 2023. "The Role of Inflation Targeting in Anchoring Long-Run Inflation Expectations: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 118951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  106. Le Bihan, Hervé & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Pacce, Matías, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks," Working Paper Series 2848, European Central Bank.
  107. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2023. "Uniform inference in linear panel data models with two-dimensional heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 694-719.
  108. Hauzenberger, Niko, 2021. "Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 87-108.
  109. Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2022. "How to estimate a vector autoregression after March 2020," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 688-699, June.
  110. Yu, Deshui & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Nonparametric modeling for the time-varying persistence of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  111. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
  112. Aaron D. Smallwood, 2022. "Inference in Misspecified GARCH‐M Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 334-355, April.
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  114. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  115. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
  116. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
  117. Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker & Xuguang Sheng, 2021. "Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2021-12a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  118. Ringwald, Leopold & Zörner, Thomas O., 2023. "The money-inflation nexus revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 293-333.
  119. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, February.
  120. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  121. Torre Cepeda Leonardo E. & Flores Segovia Miguel A., 2020. "Private Banking Credit and Economic Growth in Mexico: A State Level Panel Data Analysis 2005-2018," Working Papers 2020-17, Banco de México.
  122. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
  123. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
  124. Dreger, Christian, 2023. "The impact of demand and supply shocks on inflation. Evidence for the US and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 116316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  125. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Xin Sheng, 2022. "The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on housing returns and volatility: evidence from US state-level data," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 206-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  126. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3001-3035, June.
  127. Carlos Henrique Dias Cordeiro de Castro & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2023. "Forecasting inflation time series using score‐driven dynamic models and combination methods: The case of Brazil," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 369-401, March.
  128. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  129. Diogo de Prince & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2022. "Forecasting Industrial Production Using Its Aggregated and Disaggregated Series or a Combination of Both: Evidence from One Emerging Market Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-34, June.
  130. Mariia Artemova & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Zhaokun Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting in a changing world: from the great recession to the COVID-19 pandemic," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-006/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  131. Ooft, Gavin, 2020. "Forecasting Monthly Inflation: An Application To Suriname," Studies in Applied Economics 144, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
  132. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2023. "Прогнозирование Инфляции В России С Помощью Tvp-Модели С Байесовским Сжатием Параметров [Forecasting inflation in Russia using a TVP model with Bayesian shrinkage]," MPRA Paper 118650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  133. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain & Bikai, Landry, 2017. "Prévisions de l’inflation et de la croissance en zone CEMAC [Inflation and real growth forecasts in CEMAC zone]," MPRA Paper 116433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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