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Citations for "Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching"

by Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson

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  1. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2015. "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data," Staff Working Papers 15-24, Bank of Canada.
  2. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  3. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
  4. Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: "watchful waiting"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23.
  7. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Wenxiong, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," MPRA Paper 22360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
  9. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen
    [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]
    ," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2008. "Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-274, March.
  12. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
  13. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2007. "Measuring business cycle turning points in Japan with the Markov Switching Panel model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 263-270.
  14. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1509, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  15. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
  16. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00423890 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  19. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
  20. Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Salferaz, 2010. "Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," CEP Discussion Papers dp0977, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  21. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Florian Huber & Manfred M. Fischer, 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp201, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  23. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 0603, European Central Bank.
  24. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, EconWPA.
  25. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
  26. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0322, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004.
  27. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
  28. Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "Do the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9907-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  29. Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2008. "Factor estimation using MCMC-based Kalman filter methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 344-353, December.
  30. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25 - 37.
  31. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0059, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  32. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
  33. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  34. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  35. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  36. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  37. Uchiyama, Hirokuni, 2006. "The index of agency cost and the financial accelerator: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 22-48, January.
  38. Michael T. Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2003. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Working Papers 2001-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  39. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Examining Feedback, Momentum and Overreaction in National Equity Markets," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  40. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working Papers 201429, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  41. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, ELSEVIER, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  42. Francisco Peñaranda, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  43. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," CEPR Discussion Papers 8866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. repec:bcl:bclwop:bclwp031 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. John M. Maheu & Tom McCurdy, 2000. "Volatility Dynamics Under Duration-Dependent Mixing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1427, Econometric Society.
  46. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Green Shoots and Double Dips in the Euro Area. A Real Time Measure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  49. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
  50. Mototsugu Shintani & Zi-yi Guo, 2015. "Improving the Finite Sample Performance of Autoregression Estimators in Dynamic Factor Models: A Bootstrap Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 15-00013, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  51. Wagner, Gary A & Elder, Erick M., 2007. "Revenue Cycles and the Distribution of Shortfalls in U.S. States: Implications for an "Optimal" Rainy Day Fund," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(4), pages 727-42, December.
  52. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  53. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2002. "Common large innovations across nonlinear time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  54. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo & Blazquez, Cristina, 2001. "A growth cycle characterisation and forecasting of the Spanish economy: 1970-1998," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 517-532.
  55. Jackson, Laura E. & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Owyang, Michael T., 2015. "Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement," Working Papers 2015-31, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  56. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2006. "Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan's business cycles?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 109-128.
  57. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  58. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2007. "A Metropolis-in-Gibbs Sampler for Estimating Equity Market Factors," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  59. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  60. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  61. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
  62. Wang, Jin-ming & Gao, Tie-mei & McNown, Robert, 2009. "Measuring Chinese business cycles with dynamic factor models," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 89-97, March.
  63. Dovern, Jonas & Huber, Florian, 2015. "Global prediction of recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 81-84.
  64. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  65. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  66. Yasutomo Murasawa & Roberto S. Mariano, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles Without Assuming a One-Factor Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 710, Econometric Society.
  67. Darné, Olivier & Ferrara, Laurent, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. LI, XI HAO & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Stock-Flow Dynamic Projection," MPRA Paper 62047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  70. Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
  72. Michael Funke & Harm Bandholz, 2003. "In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 277-297.
  73. Trojan, Sebastian, 2013. "Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility with Skew, Fat Tails and Leverage using Returns and Realized Volatility Contemporaneously," Economics Working Paper Series 1341, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Aug 2014.
  74. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Panageas, Stavros, 2008. "Hedging sudden stops and precautionary contractions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 28-57, February.
  75. Charles R. Nelson, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect," Working Papers UWEC-2007-30, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  76. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2010. "Estimation Methods Comparison of SVAR Models with a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 279-314, September.
  77. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  78. Michael Dueker & Ada Jacox & David Kalist & Stephen Spurr, 2005. "The Practice Boundaries of Advanced Practice Nurses: An Economic and Legal Analysis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 309-330, 01.
  79. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  80. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  81. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "A dynamic factor approach to nonlinear stability analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2788-2808, September.
  82. Yushu Li & Simon Reese, 2014. "Wavelet improvement in turning point detection using a hidden Markov model: from the aspects of cyclical identification and outlier correction," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 1481-1496, December.
  83. Francis W. Ahking, 2015. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities (With Appendix A)," Working papers 2015-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  84. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
  85. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
  86. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  87. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
  88. Vitor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-18, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  89. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2014. "A Bayesian Approach to Modelling Bivariate Time-Varying Cointegration and Cointegrating Rank," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  90. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
  91. Stöber, Jakob & Czado, Claudia, 2014. "Regime switches in the dependence structure of multidimensional financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 672-686.
  92. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
  93. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
  94. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2007. "A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan, but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-14, January.
  95. Gary A. Wagner & Erick Elder, 2007. "How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 75-87.
  96. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chyi, Yih-Luan, 2006. "A Markov regime-switching model for the semiconductor industry cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-578, July.
  97. Michael T. Owyang & Abbigail J. Chiodo, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  98. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
  99. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
  100. Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2015. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions—Does loan growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 82-94.
  101. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  102. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  103. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo Group Munich.
  104. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
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