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Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, And Tests Of Duration Dependence Based On A Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching
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- Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
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"Contagious switching,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
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"Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
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- Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kai Carstensen & Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Jena Economics Research Papers 2019-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2021.
"Using Credit Variables to Date Business Cycle and to Estimate the Probabilities of Recession in Real Time,"
Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 76-96, September.
- Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2019. "Using credit variables to date business cycle and to estimate the probabilities of recession in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1229, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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"Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
14404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2004, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 26798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers," CAMA Working Papers 2020-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 277-297.
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"The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach,"
Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
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"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
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"A Markov Switching Factor‐Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 575-604, June.
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- Florian Huber & Manfred M. Fischer, 2015. "A Markov switching factor-augmented VAR model for analyzing US business cycles and monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp201, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017.
"Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
- Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- Sergey Smirnov & Nikolay Kondrashov & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01692230, HAL.
- Sergey Smirnov & Nikolay Kondrashov & Anna Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Post-Print hal-01692230, HAL.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "K-state switching models with time-varying transition distributions – Does credit growth signal stronger effects of variables on inflation?," Working Papers 14.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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"When did the 2001 recession really start?,"
Econometrics
0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009.
"Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
09053, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00423890, HAL.
- Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2009. "Evaluation of Nonlinear time-series models for real-time business cycle analysis of the Euro area," Post-Print halshs-00423890, HAL.
- Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Identifying US turning points revisited: the panel model with the regime switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 893-897.
- Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005.
"Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-538, June.
- Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0322, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004.
- Mototsugu Shintani, 2010. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000168, David K. Levine.
- Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021.
"The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
- Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," ESRB Working Paper Series 118, European Systemic Risk Board.
- Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007.
"A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Chun-Chang Lee & Chih-Min Liang & Hsing-Jung Chou, 2013. "Identifying Taiwan real estate cycle turning points- An application of the multivariate Markov-switching autoregressive Model," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 1-1.
- John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002.
"Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
- John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.
- Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chyi, Yih-Luan, 2006. "A Markov regime-switching model for the semiconductor industry cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-578, July.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini, 2024.
"Bayesian Markov-Switching Tensor Regression for Time-Varying Networks,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 119(545), pages 109-121, January.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini, 2018. "Bayesian Markov Switching Tensor Regression for Time-varying Networks," Working Papers 2018:14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015.
"Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working Papers 201429, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Regime Switching Model of US Crude Oil and Stock Market Prices: 1859 to 2013," Working papers 2014-26, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
- Monokroussos, George & Zhao, Yongchen, 2020.
"Nowcasting in real time using popularity priors,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1173-1180.
- Monokroussos, George, 2015. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," MPRA Paper 68594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2020. "Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors," Working Papers 2020-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Zi-Yi Guo, 2018.
"Improving the finite sample performance of autoregression estimators in dynamic factor models: A bootstrap approach,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 360-379, April.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Zi-yi Guo, 2015. "Improving the Finite Sample Performance of Autoregression Estimators in Dynamic Factor Models: A Bootstrap Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 15-00013, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Xinlong Li & Andrew T. Ching, 2024. "How Does a Firm Adapt in a Changing World? The Case of Prosper Marketplace," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 673-693, May.
- Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
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"Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries,"
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
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- Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010.
"Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
- Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "Extracting a Robust U.S. Business Cycle Using a Time-Varying Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter," Working Papers UWEC-2008-15-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001.
"A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0059, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0035, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1999. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0035, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0059, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- N. Kundan Kishor, 2020.
"Understanding the relationship between public and private commercial real estate markets,"
Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 289-307, October.
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- Vitor Castro, 2013.
"The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
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- Vítor Castro, 2010. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: Are there change-points in duration dependence?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
- Vitor Castro, 2015.
"The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
- Vítor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," NIPE Working Papers 11/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
- Keisuke Kondo, 2022.
"Spatial dependence in regional business cycles: evidence from Mexican states,"
Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-46, December.
- Keisuke Kondo, 2015. "Spatial Dependence in Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from Mexican States," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-27, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jun 2021.
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"Estimating Multicountry Var Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
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OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
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- Vitor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," GEMF Working Papers 2011-17, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
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Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 529-547, December.
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