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Citations for "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters"

by Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams

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  1. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  2. Claudia Neri, 2015. "Eliciting beliefs in continuous-choice games: a double auction experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(4), pages 569-608, December.
  3. Péter Hudomiet & Robert J. Willis, 2012. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data," NBER Working Papers 18258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Neri, Claudia & Manski, Charles, 2012. "First- and Second-order Subjective Expectations in Strategic Decision-Making: Experimental Evidence," Economics Working Paper Series 1206, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  5. Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2013. "Can macroeconomists forecast risk? Event-based evidence from the euro area SPF," Working Paper Series 1540, European Central Bank.
  6. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
  7. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2011. "Scoring rules and survey density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 379-393.
  10. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 60, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  11. Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, 07.
  12. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Taro Ikeda, 2013. "Asymmetric forecasting and commitment policy in a robust control problem," Discussion Papers 1306, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  14. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
  16. Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. João Valle e Azevedo, 2011. "Rational vs. professional forecasts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  18. Tobias Fissler & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2015. "Higher order elicitability and Osband's principle," Papers 1503.08123, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
  19. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
  20. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2012. "Assessment of probabilistic forecasts: Proper scoring rules and moments," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 27(3), pages 115-132.
  21. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
  22. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015. "Ex-post Inflation Forecast Uncertainty and Skew Normal Distribution: ‘Back from the Future’ Approach," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/09, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  23. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521 - 554.
  24. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 686, Central Bank of Chile.
  25. Paul Ruud & Daniel Schunk & Joachim Winter, 2014. "Uncertainty causes rounding: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(3), pages 391-413, September.
  26. Thornton, Rebecca L., 2012. "HIV testing, subjective beliefs and economic behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 300-313.
  27. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  28. Charles Bellemare & Luc Bissonnette & Sabine Kroger, 2007. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations using Probability Questions -An Application to the Investment Game-," Cahiers de recherche 0734, CIRPEE.
  29. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  30. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  31. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 976, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  32. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
  33. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  34. Martha A. Starr, 2012. "Contributions of Economists to the Housing-Price Bubble," Journal of Economic Issues, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 143-172, March.
  35. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  36. Armona, Luis & Fuster, Andreas & Zafar, Basit, 2016. "Home price expectations and behavior: evidence from a randomized information experiment," Staff Reports 798, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  37. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  38. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone, 2014. "The effectiveness of non-standard monetary policy measures: evidence from survey data," Working Papers CASMEF 1406, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  39. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  40. Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
  41. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Xuguang Sheng & Jingyun Yang, 2013. "Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 2013-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  43. Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
  44. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  45. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0612, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  46. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  47. Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
  48. Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2006. "The relationship between expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts," Staff Reports 253, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  49. P. Schanbacher, 2014. "Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 423-452, October.
  50. Naohito Abe & Yuko Ueno, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 064, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  51. Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren, 2012. "Are individual survey expectations internally consistent?," Discussion Papers 77, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  52. Stefano Eusepi & Giorgio Topa & Andrea Tambalotti & Richard Crump, 2016. "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution," 2016 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  53. Nikola Mirkov & Andreas Steinhauer, 2014. "Are subjective distributions in inflation expectations symmetric?," ECON - Working Papers 173, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  54. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. McKenzie, Jordi, 2011. "Mean absolute percentage error and bias in economic forecasting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 259-262.
  56. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
  57. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
  58. García, Juan Angel & Manzanares, Andrés, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 0836, European Central Bank.
  59. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
  60. Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
  61. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  62. Abe, Naohito & Ueno, Yuko, 2016. "The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP16-1, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  63. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Revealed Preference and the Strength/Weight Hypothesis," Working Papers wpn13-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.