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Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Cho, Guedae & Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2003. "Relative Agricultural Price Changes In Different Time Horizons," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22249, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
  3. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "The impact of central bank intervention on exchange-rate forecast heterogeneity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 38-63, March.
  5. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
  6. Lee, Boram & Rosenthal, Leonard & Veld, Chris & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia, 2015. "Stock market expectations and risk aversion of individual investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 122-131.
  7. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Wong, Michael Chak-sham & Cheung, Yan-Leung, 1999. "The practice of investment management in Hong Kong: market forecasting and stock selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 451-465, August.
  9. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2023. "Central bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 1268-1288, July.
  10. Vitale, Paolo & Rime, Dagfinn & Breedon, Francis, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ken Miyajima & Carlos Montoro, 2013. "Impact of foreign exchange interventions on exchange rate expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 39-54, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
  13. Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  14. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  15. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Aggregate and disaggregate measures of the foreign exchange risk premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-84, April.
  16. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau, 2002. "Excess returns, portfolio choices and exchange rate dynamics. The yen/dollar case, 1980–1998," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 233-256, July.
  17. Erik Theissen, 2007. "An analysis of private investors' stock market return forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 35-43.
  18. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
  19. Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Agent-based financial markets and New Keynesian macroeconomics: a synthesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, April.
  20. Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  21. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  22. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2017. "Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike : Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices," Discussion paper series. A 311, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
  23. Poole, Barbara S., 2001. "On time: contributions from the social sciences," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 375-387, 00.
  24. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
  25. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
  26. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 926, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  27. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Efectul Turn-of-the-Year pe piaţa valutară din România [The Turn-of-the-Year Effect in the Romanian foreign exchange market]," MPRA Paper 99365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2020.
  28. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "On the internal consistency of short-term, medium-term and long-term oil price forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2757-2765, July.
  29. De Bondt, Werner F. M., 1998. "A portrait of the individual investor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 831-844, May.
  30. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2017. "Can monetary policy cause the uncovered interest parity puzzle?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 34-44.
  31. Levin, Jay H., 1997. "Stabilization policy, exchange rate expectations, and international transmission," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-40, February.
  32. Ulrich K. Müller & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2006. "Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 401-413.
  33. Du, Wenti & Pentecost, Eric J., 2021. "New “News” for the news model of the spot exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  34. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2018. "Rational overconfidence and social security: subjective beliefs, objective welfare," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 179-229, March.
  35. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  36. Behrens, Christoph, 2019. "Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach," Working Papers 9, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  37. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  38. Lewis Vivien & Markiewicz Agnieszka, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
  39. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
  40. Graham Elliott, 2017. "Forecast combination when outcomes are difficult to predict," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 7-20, August.
  41. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2008. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 335-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1992. "The Evolving Japanese Financial System, and the Cost of Capital," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C92-002, University of California at Berkeley.
  43. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multivar," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2009. "Rational Overconfidence and Social Security," Discussion Paper Series 0916, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  46. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  47. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
  48. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  49. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ida Johnsson, 2020. "Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 428-442, April.
  50. Lant, Theresa & Shapira, Zur, 2008. "Managerial reasoning about aspirations and expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 60-73, April.
  51. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  52. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
  53. Vargas-Herrera, Hernando & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2024. "Effectiveness of FX intervention and the flimsiness of exchange rate expectations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  54. Chionis, Dionysios & MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "Some tests of market microstructure hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 203-229, October.
  55. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Housing Starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do Forecasters Herd?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 754-773, October.
  56. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Bokhyeon Baik & Cheolbeom Park, 2003. "Dispersion of analysts' expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 829-839.
  58. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  59. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  60. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
  61. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-50.
  62. Bak, Yuhyeon & Park, Cheolbeom, 2022. "Exchange rate predictability, risk premiums, and predictive system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  63. Imad Moosa, 2002. "A test of the news model of exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(4), pages 694-710, December.
  64. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Papers 3807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," Working Papers 2009_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  66. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2003. "Expectations driven distortions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 389-412, July.
  67. Michael Frenkel & Matthias Mauch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  68. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
  69. Jörn Dermietzel, 2008. "The Heterogeneous Agents Approach to Financial Markets – Development and Milestones," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), Handbook on Information Technology in Finance, chapter 19, pages 443-464, Springer.
  70. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
  71. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
  72. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  73. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  74. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
  75. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal, Dilek, 2005. "Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 473-489.
  76. Imane El Ouadghiri, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Macroeconomic News Expectations: A disaggregate level analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  77. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 41214, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  78. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2013. "Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  79. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  80. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
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  82. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, March.
  83. Sautner, Zacharias & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Stock options and employee behavior," Papers 05-26, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  84. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  85. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  86. William P. Osterberg, 2000. "New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 14-21.
  87. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
  88. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
  89. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2011. "Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 253-258.
  90. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  91. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
  92. Ashok Parikh, 1994. "Tests of real interest parity in international currency markets," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 167-191, June.
  93. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
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  97. Masazumi Hattori & Steven Kong & Frank Packer & Toshitaka Sekine, 2021. "The Impact of Regime Change on the Influence of the Central Bank's Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from Japan's Shift to Inflation Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-34, October.
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  101. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367.
  102. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  103. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
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  129. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981, March.
  130. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Heterogeneous Forecasters and Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market," FinMaP-Working Papers 11, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  131. G. Bird & R. Rajan, 2001. "Would International Currency Taxation and Currency Stabilisation in Developing Countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 21-38.
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  133. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  134. Tobias Adrian & Mark M. Westerfield, 2009. "Disagreement and Learning in a Dynamic Contracting Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 3873-3906, October.
  135. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
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