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Efecto rebaño: una aproximación para contrastar la hipótesis de expectativas racionales

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  • Juan Sebastián Vélez Velásquez

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Abstract

La Hipótesis de Expectativas Racionales ha sido una herramienta crucial para el análisis económico y un supuesto ampliamente difundido al modelar el comportamiento de los agentes económicos. Sin embargo, ha sido también un fuerte supuesto acerca del alcance de la racionalidad de los agentes. Muchos trabajos alrededor del mundo han lidiado con probar la precisión de las predicciones de agentes pronosticadores. En Colombia la escasez de trabajo relacionado puede deberse, en parte, a la escasez de datos. Este documento aborda la prueba de la Hipótesis de Expectativas Racionales, usando técnicas econométricas sencillas en una base de datos construida para este propósito.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Sebastián Vélez Velásquez, 2006. "Efecto rebaño: una aproximación para contrastar la hipótesis de expectativas racionales," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 003971, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000149:003971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    2. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1978. "The Future and the Present in Economic Life," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 157-169, April.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Macroeconomics After Two Decades of Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
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    Keywords

    Efecto rebaño; aproximación de la hipótesis; expectativas racionales;

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