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A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables

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  1. Franklin G. Mixon & Chandini Sankaran, 2019. "Men in Grey Suits: Shark Activity and Congestion of the Surfing Commons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
  2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
  3. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  4. Ikeno, Hidehiro, 2014. "Long-run analysis on convergence of Japanese local price levels: A pairwise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 390-397.
  5. Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
  6. Thomas M. Fullerton & Elías D. Saenz-Rojo & Adam G. Walke, 2017. "Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2910-2921, June.
  7. Christelis, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2010. "Cognitive abilities and portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 18-38, January.
  8. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kimhi, Ayal & Rubin, Ofir D., 2006. "Assessing The Response Of Farm Households To Dairy Policy Reform In Israel," Discussion Papers 7134, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Agricultural Economics and Management.
  10. Greg Tkacz, 2013. "Predicting Recessions in Real-Time: Mining Google Trends and Electronic Payments Data for Clues," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 387, September.
  11. Honghu Liu & Yan Zheng & Jie Shen, 2008. "Goodness-of-fit measures of R2 for repeated measures mixed effect models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1081-1092.
  12. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
  13. Petr Budinsky & Radim Valenèík, 2008. "Nash Equilibrium in Elementary System of Redistribution Calculation, Weight, Application," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 124-130.
  14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6156 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
  16. Mar Llorente-Marrón & Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez, 2022. "Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 311(2), pages 771-798, April.
  17. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 80-106.
  18. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2015. "Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 847-866, August.
  19. Giselmar A. J. Hemmert & Laura M. Schons & Jan Wieseke & Heiko Schimmelpfennig, 2018. "Log-likelihood-based Pseudo-R2 in Logistic Regression," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 47(3), pages 507-531, August.
  20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6407 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
  22. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
  23. R. Alton Gilbert & Andrew P. Meyer & Mark D. Vaughan, 2006. "Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Spr), pages 135-175.
  24. Javier Gomez-Biscarri, 2009. "The predictive power of the term spread revisited: a change in the sign of the predictive relationship," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1131-1142.
  25. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  26. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
  27. Lupín, Beatriz & Lacaze, María Victoria & Rodríguez, Elsa Mirta M., 2007. "Las percepciones de riesgo de los consumidores en alimentos lácteos: aplicación de una regresión logística ordinal," Nülan. Deposited Documents 1287, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
  28. Jan Grossarth-Maticek & Johannes Mayr, 2008. "Media reports as an economic activity indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(07), pages 17-29, April.
  29. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Takagi, Shingo, 2012. "Retail power market competition with endogenous entry decision—An auction data analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 351-368.
  30. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  31. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
  32. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
  33. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
  34. Ercolani, Valerio & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  35. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
  36. Harri Pönkä, 2017. "Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1451-1480, June.
  37. Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
  38. Ulrich Fritsche, 2001. "Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?," Macroeconomics 0012022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
  40. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
  41. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
  42. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578.
  43. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  44. Matthew C. Li, 2014. "The US zero-coupon yield spread as a predictor of excess daily stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 889-906, July.
  45. Harri Pönkä & Markku Stenborg, 2020. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 81-99, Spring.
  46. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
  47. Nathalie Picard & Constantinos Antoniou, 2014. "Econometric Methods For Land Use Microsimulation," Working Papers hal-01092031, HAL.
  48. Selen Cakmakyapan & Haydar Demirhan, 2017. "A Monte Carlo-based pseudo-coefficient of determination for generalized linear models with binary outcome," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2458-2482, October.
  49. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
  50. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
  51. Mathias Moersch & Armin Pohl, 2011. "Predicting recessions with the term spread - recent evidence from seven countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1285-1288.
  52. Petr Jakubík, 2011. "Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis," Working Papers IES 2011/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
  53. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
  54. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  55. Alexey Mikhaylov, 2019. "Oil and Gas Budget Revenues in Russia after Crisis in 2015," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 375-380.
  56. Franklin G. Mixon & Steven B. Caudill, 2018. "Guarding giants: resource commons quality and informal property rights in big-wave surfing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1697-1715, June.
  57. Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
  58. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
  59. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  60. Sebastian Schich & Arturo Estrella, 2015. "Valuing guaranteed bank debt: Role of strength and size of the bank and the guarantor," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(5), pages 19-32, October.
  61. Knox, Kris Joseph & Blankmeyer, Eric C. & Trinidad, José A. & Stutzman, J.R., 2009. "Predicting bankruptcy in the Texas nursing facility industry," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1047-1064, August.
  62. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
  63. Benoît Menoni & Lionel Janin, 2007. "Le contrôle des concentrations en France : une analyse empirique des avis du Conseil de la concurrence," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 178(2), pages 93-114.
  64. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
  65. Zhihong Chen & Azhar Iqbal & Huiwen Lai, 2011. "Forecasting the probability of US recessions: a Probit and dynamic factor modelling approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 651-672, May.
  66. Wojan, Timothy R. & Lambert, Dayton M. & McGranahan, David A., 2007. "The Emergence of Rural Artistic Havens: A First Look," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 53-70, April.
  67. Simonen, Jaakko & McCann, Philip, 2008. "Firm innovation: The influence of R&D cooperation and the geography of human capital inputs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 146-154, July.
  68. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
  69. A. Montini, 1999. "I consumi alimentari delle famiglie italiane: un modello per le decisioni di consumo extradomestico utilizzando i microdati di spesa familiare," Working Papers 364, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  70. Petr Jakubík & Tatiana Škerlíková, 2014. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Firms' Default in the Czech Republic [Makroekonomické determinanty úpadku firem v České republice]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 69-80.
  71. Epperson, James E., 2008. "The last of the American ag economists," Faculty Series 46416, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  72. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
  73. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
  74. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
  75. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
  76. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
  77. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Are MCIs Good Indicators of Economic Activity ? Evidence from the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-00973056, HAL.
  78. Nina Meinel, 2009. "Comparison of performance measures for multivariate discrete models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 93(2), pages 159-174, June.
  79. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
  80. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
  81. Petr Jakubik, 2008. "Credit risk and stress testing of the Czech Banking Sector," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 107-123.
  82. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Stavros Peristiani, 2003. "Evaluating the riskiness of initial public offerings: 1980-2000," Staff Reports 167, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  84. Yoon S. Shin & William T. Moore, 2003. "Explaining credit rating differences between Japanese and U.S. agencies," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 327-344.
  85. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
  86. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Juan Zalduendo & Ms. Manuela Goretti & Mr. Bikas Joshi & Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 2007/070, International Monetary Fund.
  87. Herath, P. H. M. U. & Takeya, Hiroyuki, 2003. "Factors determining intercropping by rubber smallholders in Sri Lanka: a logit analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 159-168, October.
  88. Straetmans, S.T.M. & Candelon, B. & Ahmed, J., 2012. "Predicting and capitalizing on stock market bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  89. Christophe Blot & Grégory Levieuge, 2008. "Les indicateurs des conditions monétaires permettent-ils de prévoir l'activité économique ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 91-116.
  90. Arturo Estrella, 2007. "Extracting business cycle fluctuations: what do time series filters really do?," Staff Reports 289, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  91. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2007. "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 480-497, March.
  92. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
  93. Oral Erdogan & Paul Bennett & Cenktan Ozyildirim, 2015. "Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 407-422.
  94. Ralph Yang-Cheng Lu & Hsiu-Chuan Lee & Peter Chiu, 2014. "Institutional Investor Sentiment and Market Returns: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 140-167, December.
  95. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, October.
  96. Shue-Jen Wu & Wei-Ming Lee, 2012. "Predicting the U.S. bear stock market using the consumption-wealth ratio," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3174-3181.
  97. Franklin Mixon, 2014. "Bad vibrations: new evidence on commons quality and localism at California’s surf breaks," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(4), pages 379-397, December.
  98. Lars Nordén & Therese Strand, 2011. "Shareholder activism among portfolio managers: rational decisions or 15 minutes of fame?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 15(3), pages 375-391, August.
  99. Alexandra Krystaloyianni & George Matysiak & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2004. "Forecasting UK Real Estate Cycle Phases With Leading Indicators: A Probit Approach," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-15, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  100. Adrian, Tobias & Estrella, Arturo, 2008. "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 260-264, May.
  101. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
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  128. Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 79-87.
  129. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  130. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 294, European Central Bank.
  131. Templeton, Scott & Silberman, David & Yoo, Seung & Dabalen, Andrew, 2007. "Household use of Pesticides and Fertilizers For Pest-Soil Management and Own Time for Yard Work," Research Reports 187455, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  132. Kaiser, Ulrich & Szczesny, Andrea, 2000. "Einfache ökonometrische Verfahren für die Kreditrisikomessung," CoFE Discussion Papers 00/28, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
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  134. Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
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