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Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts

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  • Lybbert, Travis J.
  • Barrett, Christopher B.
  • McPeak, John G.
  • Luseno, Winnie K.

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Suggested Citation

  • Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Luseno, Winnie K., 2007. "Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 480-497, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:35:y:2007:i:3:p:480-497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "Food security and food assistance programs," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 40, pages 2103-2190 Elsevier.
    2. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
    3. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    4. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-880, December.
    5. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
    6. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    7. Keren, Gideon, 1987. "Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-114, February.
    8. Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
    9. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maertens, Annemie, 2013. "Social Norms and Aspirations: Age of Marriage and Education in Rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-15.
    2. repec:eee:wdevel:v:104:y:2018:i:c:p:310-325 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nomoto, Takaaki, 2016. "Rainfall Variability and Macroeconomic Performance:A Case Study of India, 1952–2013," MPRA Paper 71976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Birol, Ekin & Roy, Devesh & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "How safe is my food?: Assessing the effect of information and credible certification on consumer demand for food safety in developing countries," IFPRI discussion papers 1029, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. repec:eme:rleczz:s0147-9121(2010)0000031008 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2009. "Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(1), pages 423-423.
    7. Pengyuan Wang & Eric Bradlow & Edward George, 2014. "Meta-analyses using information reweighting: An application to online advertising," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 209-233, June.
    8. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    9. Brian Blackburn & Aprajit Mahajan & Alessandro Tarozzi & Joanne Yoong, 2009. "Bednets, Information and Malaria in Orissa," Discussion Papers 08-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Annemie Maertens & A. V. Chari & David R. Just, 2014. "Why Farmers Sometimes Love Risks: Evidence from India," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 239-274.
    11. Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg, 2016. "Subjective Expectations and Income Processes in Rural India," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 416-442, July.
    12. Hurst, Matthew & Jensen, Nathaniel & Pedersen, Sarah & Shama, Asha & Zambriski, Jennifer, 2012. "Changing Climate Adaptation Strategies of Boran Pastoralists in Southern Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 55865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chari, A.V. & Maertens, Annemie, 2014. "Gender, productive ability and the perceived returns to education: Evidence from rural India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 253-257.
    14. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
    15. Doss, Cheryl & McPeak, John & Barrett, Christopher B., 2008. "Interpersonal, Intertemporal and Spatial Variation in Risk Perceptions: Evidence from East Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1453-1468, August.
    16. Bellemare, Marc F., 2010. "Insecure Land Rights and Share Tenancy in Madagascar," MPRA Paper 23640, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bellemare, Marc F. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Osterloh, Sharon M., 2005. "Household-Level Livestock Marketing Behavior Among Northern Kenyan and Southern Ethiopian Pastoralists," Working Papers 14749, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    18. Andrew Dillon, 2010. "Measuring child labor: comparisons between hours data and subjective measures," Research in Labor Economics,in: Child Labor and the Transition between School and Work, volume 31, pages 135-159 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    19. Ashour, Maha & Billings, Lucy & Gilligan, Daniel & Hoel, Jessica B. & Karachiwalla, Naureen, 2016. "Do beliefs about agricultural inputs counterfeiting correspond with actual rates of counterfeiting? Evidence from Uganda:," IFPRI discussion papers 1552, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Sudha Narayanan, 2012. "Safe gambles? Farmer perceptions of transactional certainty and risk-return tradeoffs in contract farming schemes in Southern India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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